770
FXUS66 KLOX 222113
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
213 PM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...22/208 PM.

Night and morning low clouds and fog are expected for the coast
and some vlys through this week into the weekend, otherwise
mostly clear skies can be expected. Gusty northerly winds will
continue across southwestern Santa Barbara County through early
Monday. Temperatures are expected to turn cooler Monday and
Tuesday then warm again later in the week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...22/204 PM.

Sunny skies covered the forecast area early this afternoon and
this will continue for the rest of the day. Breezy to gusty SW-NW
winds can be expected this afternoon for many areas as pressure
gradients start to trend onshore. Temps across the region are
forecast to be several degrees warmer than yesterday, but highs
should still be about 2-10 deg below seasonal norms. Afternoon
temps should top out from the upper 60s and 70s along the coast to
the upper 70s and 80s over the vlys, lower mtns and deserts.

An upper level low (571 dam at H5) over nrn CA is forecast to
drop S to about Tulare/Kings Counties in the San Joaquin Vly on
Mon then push east into NV Mon night. SW CA will be in the
southern part of the upper level low`s circulation on Mon into
Mon evening. Upper level troffiness with H5 heights around 580 dam
will prevail on Tue, followed by some upper level ridging
starting to build in on Wed along with rising H5 heights to around
586 dam.

The marine layer pattern will quickly return tonight and Mon
morning, with a good eddy developing and extensive low clouds
expected over much of the coast into the adjacent vlys. This
pattern should continue into Wed with the night and morning low
clouds and some fog for the coast and vlys, altho a shallower
marine inversion Tue night should limit the inland extent some.
Otherwise and elsewhere, mostly clear skies can be expected for
the most part through Wed. However, on Mon the upper level low
should bring a few afternoon cu to the VTU County mtns, and even
though there will be some instability there just is not enough
moisture expected to develop anything more.

Another round of Advisory-level Sundowner winds is expected for
SW SBA County late this afternoon thru late tonight thanks to
decent northerly pressure gradients expected in this area. As a
result, a Wind Advisory will be issued with the afternoon zones
for wind gusts up to 45 mph and the potential for isolated gusts
to 50 mph in the Gaviota Pass area. Winds for Mon thru Wed should
be fairly typical for late June with breezy to gusty afternoon SW-
NW winds across the region.

Temps are expected to turn cooler on Mon, especially S of Point
Conception, then warm a few degrees each day thru Wed. Highs will
continue to be several deg below normal on Mon, then warm to
normal to perhaps a few degrees above normal by Wed.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...22/205 PM.

The extended models are in pretty decent agreement Thu thru Sun.
Upper level ridging will persist over srn CA Thu and Fri. The
upper ridging will move E into the Great Basin for Sat and Sun,
while an upper level trof develops over the E Pac. H5 heights will
remain rather high thru the period over SW CA and be about
588-590 dam overall.

The marine layer pattern will continue thru the extended period,
with varying amounts of night and morning low clouds and fog from
the coast to some of the adjacent vlys. Otherwise, mostly clear
skies can be expected. Breezy to gusty SW-NW afternoon winds will
also prevail thru the period. Temps are expected to be generally a
few degrees above normal for many areas, with only subtle day-to-
day changes.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1808Z.

At 1644Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4500 ft with a temperature of 17 C.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in 18Z TAF Package.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD, KWJF).
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. For sites with forecasted
CIGs, arrival and departure times may be off by an hour or two,
with minimum flight cats off by one. Also, there is a 20% chance
IFR CIGs arrive at KSBA from 14Z to 18Z Sun.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Arrival and departure of
MVFR CIGs 012-025 should be within +/- 1 hour of forecast. There
is low chance (15%) CIGs initially arrive high-end IFR. There is a
40% chance of east wind component reaching 8 kts from 10Z to 16Z
Mon.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 40% chance
IFR/MVFR cigs arrive from 10Z to 16Z Monday (+/- 1 hour).

&&

.MARINE...22/1227 PM.

For the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are
expected through Monday morning. Local Gale force wind gusts (35
kt) cannot be ruled out this evening. Moderate chances for low-end
SCA winds during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday through
Thursday. Seas are expected to fall well below SCA criteria Monday
through Wednesday and will likely remain sub-advisory through the
rest of the workweek.

For the Inner Waters, conditions appear to generally remain below
SCA levels next week. However, there is a chance for low-end SCA
winds at times along the Central Coast and western portions of the
Santa Barbara Channel.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Sirard
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox