128
FXUS66 KMFR 111746
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1046 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.Updated Aviation Discussion.

.DISCUSSION...Updates were made to add a slight chance of
thunderstorms to eastern Lake County this afternoon, and to extend
by 24 hours the portion of the Small Craft Advisory that is in
effect south of Port Orford, now through Friday evening.

Thunderstorm activity is tapering off, but lingers in Lake County
early this morning with the aid of an upper level trough and
embedded shortwave currently tracking across the area. Around 8
AM, activity should shift east out of our area. But, weak
lingering instability looks to be just enough to warrant the
aforementioned slight chance of thunderstorms near Hart Mountain
later today. Cumulus buildups are also expected for central and
eastern Siskiyou County late today, but moisture looks to be a
bit too shallow to support thunderstorms.

Otherwise, weather impacts during the next week look to be minor.
Our area will be between a persistent trough in the Gulf of Alaska
and a ridge offshore of Mexico. This will allow for some slight
variations within a seasonable westerly flow aloft.  Night and
morning low clouds will be common for the coast and coastal
valleys with seasonably cool temperatures. Meantime, a stable air
mass is expected inland with temperatures around 10 degrees cooler
than they have been over the past few days. This will still be
above normal, with highs generally a few to several degrees above
normal, mainly in the 80s, except in the 70s in the mountains.
Seasonably breezy west to northwest afternoon winds will also be
common. -DW

&&

.AVIATION...11/18Z TAFs...Satellite image shows the marine stratus
gradually burning off for the inland areas, in Coos and northwest
Douglas County and it should clear out for these inland areas
towards 20z. Marine stratus along the south coast from about Port
Orford south remain socked in and it`s very slow to burn off. It`s
possible the marine stratus will persist through the afternoon and
remain in place into tonight.

Meanwhile along the coast and just offshore marine stratus with IFR
ceilings will likely remain through much of the TAF period, although
it could peel back at the coast towards 0z with VFR ceilings an hour
or two before IFR conditions return. The exception is south of Cape
Blanco to Pistol River where there is a sliver of clear skies out to
5 nm from shore

IFR marine stratus will return early this evening then persist
through Thursday morning.

Inland, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with
gusty afternoon and early evening breezes. The threat for
thunderstorms will remain east of the area. -Petrucelli


&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM Wednesday, June 11, 2025...High pressure
offshore and low pressure inland are expected to persist into the
weekend. Breezy north winds will persist this week, hovering at or
just below advisory criteria. The strongest winds and steepest seas
are expected south of Port Orford to around Pistol River and out 30
nm from shore. Seas will remain dominated by a mix of northerly wind
wave and fresh swell, with steep seas across all areas through
Wednesday evening, then south of Port Orford at least through Friday
evening and potentially through Saturday night. -BR-y/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday
     for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-
     370.

&&

$$