481
FXUS66 KMTR 091806
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1106 AM PDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 110 AM PDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Remarkably stable weather pattern this week with temperatures
generally near the seasonal average, marine layer clouds each night
and morning, and breezy onshore winds each afternoon and evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1059 AM PDT Mon Jun 9 2025

No major changes to the forecast. Adjusted the sky/cloud cover
some to account for the stratus receding slower. Expect clouds to
hug the coast and around the portions of the Monterey Bay. There`s
some uncertainty still with how fast the stratus mixes out around
the Bay Area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 110 AM PDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Upper level ridging across the Pacific Northwest is just beginning
to erode, with a cutoff low that had been meandering off California
now basically absorbed into the synoptic-scale flow across the
western United States. The Bodega Bay and Point Sur profilers have
not shown much change in the marine layer depth from yesterday,
leading to high confidence that stratus will expand quite far inland
this morning, as it has for the last couple of days, with patchy fog
and drizzle possible in coastal and favored upslope areas. High
temperatures remain in the upper 70s to middle 80s inland, with the
warmest spots reaching temperatures near 100, while the coastal
regions continue to be cool with highs in the upper 50s to middle
60s, barring warmer spots near Santa Cruz and the Big Sur coast
where temperatures reach the middle 70s. Finally, breezy and gusty
onshore winds will develop during the afternoon and evening, with
the strongest gusts of 20 to 30 mph through the gaps and passes,
along the coastal jets, and within the Salinas Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 110 AM PDT Mon Jun 9 2025

The upper level ridge continues to erode through the next couple
days, with a trough coming into the region later this week.
Temperatures through the week remain remarkably stable. Perhaps
Friday and Saturday will see temperatures a few degrees cooler than
those from earlier in the week, as the trough reinforces the onshore
flow and deepens the marine layer, but temperatures will generally
remain near or slightly below seasonal averages. Speaking of the
marine layer, the marine layer stratus should build inland each
night and morning before dissipating through the afternoon, while
winds will remain breezy and gusty each afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1106 AM PDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Visible satellite shows prolific marine stratus intrusion late this
morning. Generally high confidence in VFR clearing times in the TAFs
given very stable atmospheric pattern. MVFR/IFR returns this
afternoon/evening once again with generally high confidence in
timing.

Vicinity of SFO...Solid VFR clearing to the south of the terminal
and along the approach will continue into this afternoon. Marine
stratus returns this evening under a deep marine layer...high
confidence.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Many coastal areas will be very slow to
clear today, if at all. TAF carrying MVFR/IFR cigs through the
period along coastal terminals (KMRY), and high confidence in return
into more inland terminals such as KSNS this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 438 AM PDT Mon Jun 9 2025

A moderate to fresh NW breeze will persist across the coastal
waters through mid week. A low amplitude, long period
southwesterly swell arrives Monday, bringing enhanced currents
and causing waves to break in deeper water. A tighter pressure
gradient will bring strong NW winds and rough seas through the
second half of the week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 117 PM PDT Sun Jun 8 2025

A long period southerly swell will enter the waters Monday into
Tuesday bringing a higher risk for rip current along beaches.
Breaking waves about 5 to 7 feet, but strong currents and sneaker
waves will be the bigger hazard. Use caution near the water and
never turn your back on the ocean.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay
     Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-SF Bay N
     of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
     Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT
     Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Behringer
MARINE...Flynn

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