477 FXUS66 KLOX 162056 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 156 PM PDT Wed Apr 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS...16/122 PM. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy through Friday with a chance of light rain or drizzle at times. Temperatures will remain well below normal. Warmer temperatures are expected Saturday through the middle of next week but still 3 to 6 degrees below normal across the coast and valleys. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...16/154 PM. A classic reverse clearing day today south of Pt Conception as the marine layer depth approached 6000 feet. Not quite as solid a stratus layer across SLO and northern Santa Barbara Counties but plenty of clouds there as well in addition to well below normal temperatures. Onshore gradients are over 8mb to the desert this afternoon and that is generating some gusty winds through the Highway 14 corridor and into the Antelope Valley. Going forward, the cloud forecast will certainly be a challenge with still a deep marine layer in place but a rapidly weakening inversion as the upper low moves through the area with cooler air aloft. Already seeing a preview of this over the coastal waters today, and expect the next couple days will be a hodge-podge of clouds, some clearing at times, and even some light rain or drizzle chances, especially Thursday into Thursday night across LA/Ventura Counties. NBM pops have consistently been notably low for Thu/Fri while virtually all the EPS and many of the GEFS ensemble solutions have consistently shown light rain or drizzle with amounts mostly under a tenth of an inch. This latter solution seems reasonable given the upper low moving through the area tomorrow generating some mild upward motion and making efficient use of the 0.9" PWs in place. Temperatures will remain several degrees below normal with highs mostly in the 60s. A second upper low will come through the region Friday, though this one is taking a more inside slider track through NV/AZ so chances for any precip are lower than Thursday but not zero. Best chances would be across across eastern LA County and again mostly just very light precip. And again much cooler than normal temperatures. A weak high pressure ridge will move into the state Saturday leading to several degrees of warming in all areas but especially inland. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...16/155 PM. Good agreement with the deterministic and ensemble mdls for the extended fcst. All signs point to at least 4 days of benign weather. The upper low will push to the east on Saturday and weak ridging and/or dry NW flow will set up over the state. Moderate to strong onshore flow will occur all 4 days. The marine layer stratus pattern will slowly redevelop as well. Max temps will warm each day Sat through Mon. The biggest jump in temps will occur Saturday. By Monday max temps will be 2 to 4 degrees blo normal across the csts/vlys but will have risen to 3 to 6 degrees above normal across the interior. Max temps will cool Tuesday as hgts fall ahead of a trof. The moderate onshore push to the east will bring gusty afternoon winds to the Antelope Vly and foothills. && .AVIATION...16/1620Z. Around 1530Z, the marine layer depth was around 5200 feet deep at KLAX. The top of the marine inversion was near 6000 feet with a temperature near 7 degrees Celsius. High confidence in the current forecast. Ceilings at or below 6000 feet will continue through at least 20Z at some terminals, possibly lingering longer at valley terminals. There is a moderate chance of clearing at all terminals between 21Z and 03Z, then ceilings at or below 6000 feet should spread back across the valley and coastal terminals through 09Z at the latest. There is a chance of MVFR conditions developing after 06Z, especially in any showers or drizzle. KLAX...Ceilings at or below 6000 feet will continue through at least 18Z, or as late as 20Z. Then, a scattering out of clouds will likely occur through 02Z. Ceilings at or below 6000 feet should spread back in between 02Z and 04Z. There is a 30-40 percent chance of MVFR conditions in drizzle or light rain after 07Z. KBUR...There is a 70 percent of ceilings at or below 6000 feet continuing through the period. There is a 30 percent chance of brief scattering out of clouds through 02Z. There is a 30-40 percent chance of MVFR conditions in drizzle or light rain after 07Z. && .MARINE...16/134 PM. High confidence in the current forecast through early Friday, then moderate confidence thereafter. Wind and seas conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through at least Friday, then there is a moderate-to-high (30-50 percent) chance of SCA level winds developing each afternoon and evening over the weekend. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Rorke AVIATION...Hall MARINE...Hall SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox