439 FXUS66 KLOX 070039 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 539 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS...06/108 PM. Temperatures will continue to be either below or near normal through Monday. A noticeable warming trend will start Tuesday, and heat will peak Wednesday and Thursday, with most temperatures 6 to 12 degrees above normal. Some cooling expected over the weekend bringing temperatures to near normal, then warming temperatures again the following week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...06/129 PM. An upper low continues to meander off the northern California coast through Monday which will keep temperatures on the cooler side with a steady dose of marine layer stratus that may reach into the coastal valleys later tonight. Highs Monday expected to very similar or slightly cooler than today. The low will slowly get nudged north and then east as building high pressure from Arizona pushes into California. This will bring about a warming trend in all areas but more so inland than the coast. Models today actually came in a little cooler with the 950mb temperatures, even though the strength of the ridge remained unchanged from previous runs. This will be a battle between the moderate onshore flow at the surface subsidence and resulting lowering of the marine layer as we move into Tuesday and Wednesday. But for now felt that trimming a couple of degrees off the forecast highs was appropriate and will see how the higher res models and ensembles adjust over the next couple days. With the modest lowering of highs decided to table any heat advisory issuances for now. .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...06/141 PM. Very little change or slightly warmer on Thursday, then a cooling trend will develop Friday through next weekend as onshore flow increases in response to another weak upper low moving into the Pac NW and far northern California. The ridge over southern California will weaken slightly as well but remain in place. By next Sunday and going into the following week most of the ensembles indicate an even stronger ridge developing for a return of hotter temperatures, potentially hotter than this week. There is also a developing signal for monsoon moisture moving into the area by around the 15th of the month. && .AVIATION...07/0036Z. At 2328Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 ft deep. The top of the inversion was 2900 feet with a temperature of 25 C. High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert sites (KWJF and KPMD). Low confidence in TAF for KPRB after 10Z Sun. There is a 30% chance of IFR cigs arriving. Otherwise, high confidence in VFR conditions. Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off by 2 hours and flight minimums by one category. There is a 30% chance of LIFR conds at KOXR/KCMA from 10Z to 15Z Mon. Slightly lower odds (20% chc) of CIGs arriving at KBUR/KVNY through aforementioned timeframe. There is a 30% chc of no CIGs at KSBA through the period. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and departure of CIGs may be off +/- 2 hours. Minimum CIG heights may be off +/- 300 feet. No significant east wind component expected. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance for IFR cigs from 10Z to 15Z Mon. && .MARINE...06/121 PM. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will continue across the Northern Outer/Inner Waters through this evening, and through late tonight for the waters south of Point Conception. Moderate chances for SCA level winds are expected to stay confined to the waters south of Point Conception Monday & Tuesday, before expanding to include most of the Outer Waters Wednesday and Thursday. Seas are likely to remain well below SCA thresholds through Wednesday. Inside the southern California bight, there is a moderate chance of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening through mid-week across western and southern portions of the Santa Barbara Channel. Local gusts up to 21 kts may occur near Point Dume, and into the San Pedro Channel during the aforementioned time. Significant wave heights are expected to remain well below SCA thresholds. Patchy dense fog may affect the coastal waters, especially north of Point Conception overnight and in the morning hours. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Lund MARINE...Black SYNOPSIS...MW/Schoenfeld weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox