001 FXUS66 KHNX 250505 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1005 PM PDT Thu Jul 24 2025 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation Section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. There is a 10 to 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop across the Sierra Nevada Crest Wednesday through Friday, especially in the high Sierra near Yosemite National Park. 2. Dry lightning is possible in developed storms due to a probability less than 30 percent for greater than 0.10" of rain. 3. Long string of cooler, below-average temperatures and breezy conditions through the week, with some fire weather concerns. 4. Minimal change in the overall weather pattern with a slow warming trend going into the weekend. A return to triple digits across the San Joaquin Valley between next Monday or Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Another pleasant day across Central California as we experience below normal afternoon highs. While not record levels, highs in the lower to mid 90s expected across the region through this coming weekend. Until the East Coast High (Heat Dome) breaks- down, the West will maintain the trough with weak pieces of energy passing through the area. Therefore, cool dry with enough lift, instability and moisture to fire-up convection across the Sierra Nevada this afternoon. Probability of Thunder still around 30% this afternoon with chance of a wetting rain (0.10 of an inch) at less than 30%, during the same time. This will lead toward another afternoon of dry thunderstorms across the West. While a shift toward warming temperatures is indicated, it may be short-lived as long-range ensemble hint toward the introduction of another trough pattern. Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 95 degree does not surpass the 50% threshold until Monday. Therefore, high confidence in lower to mid 90s will exist through the weekend before a warm trend starts. While PoE of 95 degree peak out at 70% to 90% on Tuesday, PoE for 100 degrees at the same time falls to less than 20%. Therefore, Central California will struggle to triple digits this week and may not hold-on to it next week. By Wednesday, PoE of 95 degrees takes a downward trend and continues into Thursday. 90S across the San Joaquin Valley may be the name of the game for most of the next seven days. In addition to the persist below normal temperatures, Probability of Thunder expected to fire-up convection over the Sierra Nevada Crest for the next several days. While the probability of thunder will range from 10% to 30%, the higher percentages will exist near Yosemite. The lower range will spread into Tulare County with less than 10% over the Kern County Mountains through Saturday. Probabilities still exist on Sunday, yet, at much lower values. Furthermore, due to the lack of significant moisture surging into the region, precipitation from convection will remain limited. Dry lightning will be a threat over the next two to three days as elevated fire weather concern exist from Fresno County northward through Yosemite today and Friday. Will expect more of the same in the near future until the break-down of the East Coast High Pressure Area. && .AVIATION... 06Z Update VFR conditions are expected in the San Joaquin valley for the next 24 hours. Slight chance to a chance (10%-30%) of thunderstorms will exist across the Sierra Nevada Crest from Yosemite to Tulare County starting from 18Z Friday until 05Z Saturday. Local winds of to G20kts are expected along the Interstate-5 corridor through 12Z Friday. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public......Molina Aviation....EW weather.gov/hanford