037
FXUS66 KSGX 041031
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
331 AM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Minor warming through the holiday weekend with highs near normal
and night and morning low clouds continuing along the coastal
areas and western valleys. A ridge of high pressure will
strengthen over the region, leading to building confidence in a
heat wave across the area and the potential first push of monsoon
moisture by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Today through this weekend...

The troughing over the eastern Pacific waters is going to remain
nearly in place throughout this period in the forecast, which little
change with respect to temperatures, with only a very gradual warmup
each day. In terms of the marine layer, coverage is going to be
similar tonight, with some of these low clouds making it into the
Inland empire (IE) again. An upper level low will form off the coast
of northern California by later in the day on Sunday and then
slowly transition southward. Meanwhile, the ridge over the desert
southwest is going to continue to strengthen, which will result
in the lower deserts getting back to being above 110F by Sunday.
Conditions will remain dry, although given the position of the
low, some of the low clouds thickening up during the overnight
hours and producing some possible very light drizzle for locations
west of the mountains cannot be ruled out completely.

Monday through Thursday...

By next week, the U/L low positioned out over the coastal waters
will begin to propagate back up towards the north and eventually
become absorbed back into the longwave trough upstream.
Meanwhile, the ridge to the east is going to further strengthen
and slightly retrograde back towards the west a little. As the
ridge axis gets closer to the CWA, temperatures are also going to
continue to rise, especially for the inland areas. By the middle
of next week (Wednesday), temperatures will likely top 100F for
most locations within the IE, and even approaching 80F for most of
the coastal areas. Some increased moisture could help to slightly
modify temperatures on the cooler side. Conditions will continue
to remain dry through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
041000Z....Coast/Valleys...Low clouds based 1200-1700 ft MSL have
filled into SD/Orange Counties about 15-20 miles inland. Western and
southern IE may fill in after 12z with 60% chance of BKN CIGs
briefly at KONT. Localized VIS reductions down to 3-5SM for elevated
valley terrain (i.e. KRNM). Clouds to clear to the beaches by 16-17z
Fri, with clearing likely at the beaches in the afternoon. Low
clouds with slightly lower bases 900-1300 ft MSL reform and push
back ashore after 03Z Sat. Less inland extent with clouds only
reaching 10-15 miles inland by 12z Sat.

VIS restrictions (2-5SM) will be possible in FU associated with
fireworks this evening, especially in Orange County and western IE.

Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with unrestricted VIS through
Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine weather conditions are expected through Tuesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Building southerly swell (190 degrees) of 3 feet at 15-17 seconds
will generate elevated surf of 3-6 ft with sets to 7 ft along
southerly facing beaches through Saturday. In addition, strong rip
and longshore currents expected at all beaches Friday and Saturday.
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect and contains more
information. Swell and surf will begin to lower on Sunday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday evening for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Stewey
AVIATION/MARINE...KW