385 FXUS65 KVEF 250808 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 110 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Below-normal temperatures and afternoon southerly breezes expected to continue through the weekend before temperatures heat up next week. * In general, dry conditions continue through the weekend into early next week. Monsoonal moisture increases across Arizona, resulting in precipitation chances for Mohave County mid-to-late week. && .DISCUSSION...through Thursday. Midnight water vapor loop showed the closed low in the vicinity of Monterey Bay and moving very slowly northeast. The immediate term concern will be thunderstorm chances in the Sierra. 24 hours ago, high res models were showing fewer thunderstorms on Thursday versus what happened Wednesday, which was incorrect. Tonight, the high res models are showing fewer thunderstorms on Friday versus what happened on Thursday, and with the low still nearby, suspect this trend may be incorrect again. As the low finally weakens and gets absorbed into the mean flow over the weekend, the decreasing trend will become more likely. Elsewhere in our CWA, unseasonably dry conditions and below normal temperatures persist in dry southwesterly flow through the weekend. There is still excellent model agreement showing the big, hot high pressure system which has brought steamy conditions to areas east of the Rockies flexing west beginning Sunday. This will increase temperatures to near normal for late July by Monday and Tuesday. The big question mark is how much monsoon moisture will be advected into our area as the ridge pushes west. There is better consensus among long range ensembles that there will be enough moisture coming in from the south to fuel chances for thunderstorms, although the exact timing and areal extent are in question. Forecast will show a gradual westward expansion of PoPs from Monday through Thursday, although this should be interpreted as a middle-of-the-road solution. The exact timing and westward extent will likely change as we get closer. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package... Southerly breezes continue through today. A slight southeast component is expected during the late morning and early afternoon hours, but by the time gusts become more frequent, wind should shift to a south-southwest direction. Gusts forecast to be around 20 knots, dropping off near sunset. Few to scattered clouds at or above 15kft. Temperatures approach 100F from 21z to 01z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light winds early this morning will give way to another day of southerly breezes this afternoon. The exception to this is the KDAG area where winds remain westerly. Gusts generally in the 15-25 knot range across the region, but locally stronger gusts possible in the KBIH vicinity where gusts to around 30 knots are possible. An isolated storm is possible on the Sierra crest in the afternoon, but impacts in the Owens Valley are unlikely. Few to scattered clouds at or above 12kft. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Morgan AVIATION...Gorelow For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter