844 FXUS65 KVEF 271114 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 412 AM PDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Expect continued light showers and isolated thunderstorms across the southern Great Basin today as well as region-wide below-normal temperatures and gusty southwest winds as a weather system pushes out of the area. Broad ridging will grow over the western United States through the week, which will allow for warming temperatures, calmer winds, and dry conditions. Watching another weather system approach the region next weekend. && .SHORT TERM...Today and Monday. The upper-level low over the region will continue to shift eastward through the day today as the trough axis pushes through the forecast area. Modest moisture (0.25 - 0.75" of PWAT) coupled with meager instability (50 - 150 J/kg of CAPE) will result in persistent light showers and isolated thunderstorms across the southern Great Basin this morning and afternoon. Expect additional precipitation accumulation between 0.05 and 0.10 inches across northern Esmeralda, north-central Nye, and northern Lincoln counties and between 0.01 and 0.05 inches across northern Inyo and northwestern Clark counties today. Snow levels will rapidly increase as the day progresses, but will start off between 4000 and 5000 feet, which would result in 0.5 to 1.5 inches of additional snowfall in the higher terrain of the southern Great Basin. In general, impacts from this precipitation should be minimal, with the exception of slick driving conditions as the light rain combines with dirt, oil, and grime on the roads. Wind-wise, as the trough axis pushes through the forecast area today, expect gusty west-southwest winds ahead of the front, with gust speeds between 15 and 25 mph across the central and eastern Mojave Desert and between 25 and 35 mph across the western Mojave Desert. DCAPE will be greatest in Lincoln County this afternoon between 250 and 500 J/kg, so gusty winds to 30 mph can be expected from isolated thunderstorm formation. Monday afternoon, post-frontal winds will shift from the northwest, with strongest speeds in Esmeralda and central Nye between 20 and 30 mph. Today will be the coolest day of the forecast period, with each climate site observing highs in the Top 10 Coolest for April 27th. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday. Model clusters are in good agreement through Thursday before beginning to diverge Friday and especially Saturday. As low pressure moves away to the east, the overall flow should shift from northerly on Tuesday to northwesterly on Wednesday. Another, weaker low is forecast to pass by to the north on Wednesday. The main question is how deep this low might be, which would be one determining factor in how far south precip chances might get. The overall consensus is for a weak solution, which would limit precip chances to the far northern fringes of our area, although there are a few outlying stronger solutions. As high pressure moves in from the Pacific on Thursday, this low should get trapped over our area in a configuration similar to a Rex block. If the low is indeed weak, its only effects on our area could be clouds and a few degrees less warming than the high pressure would imply, but if the outlying stronger solutions verify better, showery weather could come into play. The next trough in the westerlies should reach the West Coast Friday or Saturday and move inland, kicking out the aforementioned low and bringing increasing winds and precip chances along with cooler temperatures. At this point, it looks like Friday should be the warmest day, with high temperatures areawide about 10 degrees warmer than on Monday, although this would change if the stronger solutions come to pass. Saturday could be the windiest day, although this would change if the speed of the incoming trough changes. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package... Southwest winds with gusts of 20 to 25 knots will prevail through the day today. There may be a few hours where winds lull this morning, especially between 15-18z, and direction may briefly swing to west or northwest directions while remaining quite light. Otherwise, just scattered clouds above 10kft AGL expected. Winds will ease late tonight and may shift to the northwest by mid-morning Monday. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Breezy south or southwest winds are expected again today for most of the Mojave Desert and Colorado River TAF sites, with the strongest winds near KDAG where gusts around 30 knots are expected. Further north, some morning cloud cover is expected near KBIH with CIGS generally above 6kft AGL. A gradual improvement in sky condition is expected through the day with clearing overnight, with north winds of 8-12 knots.&& .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Soulat LONG TERM...Morgan AVIATION...Gorelow For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter