077
FXUS66 KSGX 152019
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
119 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat will peak today, with a gradual cooling starting Monday and
continuing through most of the week. Night and morning low clouds
and fog can be expected each day along the coast, reaching into
portions of the valleys for the middle to end of the week. Breezy
west winds across the mountains and deserts each afternoon and
evening, strongest on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Temperatures at 1 PM were running mostly 5 to 10 degrees warmer than
1 PM yesterday across the area. Widespread moderate HeatRisk is
impacting the inland valleys, mountain foothills, and High Desert
today, with moderate to locally major HeatRisk in the low desert.
Make sure you`re staying hydrated and seeking shade if you`re
spending time outdoors. If possible, avoid strenuous outdoor
activity during the hottest part of the day (through 5pm). The ridge
of high pressure over us today will begin to flatten Monday as an
upper level trough moves inland across the West Coast. That will
kick off a gradual cooling with highs Monday a few degrees cooler
than today and additional cooling into Tuesday. Even with highs
being knocked down a few degrees, they will remain 3 to 7 degrees
above average Tuesday.

In addition to a few degrees of cooling, onshore flow will
strengthen. That will bring breezy west winds to the desert mountain
slopes, below the passes, and into the deserts during the afternoons
and evenings. Strongest winds are expected Monday with gusts 30 to
45 mph, locally up to 50 mph through the San Gorgonio Pass.

Low clouds are expected to remain persistent each night and morning
for the coast early this week, with areas of locally dense fog
possible. The marine layer is expected to deepen for the middle to
end of next week as a more amplified trough of low pressure
approaches the West Coast.

Global ensemble clusters show a brief rebound in the ridge for
Wednesday, which will bring a few degrees of warming to inland
areas. NBM chances for the Inland Empire to exceed 100 degrees is 30
to 60 percent, with the higher chances in the eastern portions of
the Inland Empire. In the low desert, NBM has a 60 to 80 percent
chance of high temperatures exceeding 110 degrees. In the High
Desert chances of exceeding 100 degrees are 70 to 80 percent. The
warming on Wednesday will be short lived as there is good ensemble
agreement in a more amplified trough moving into the Pacific
Northwest Thursday through the weekend. While there is still some
uncertainty in the finer details cooler conditions, increased winds,
and a deeper marine layer can be expected for the end of the week.
There is high confidence in dry conditions with this passing
trough.

&&

.AVIATION...
151945Z....Coast/Valleys...Low clouds based around 400-700ft MSL are
hugging the SD Co coastline this afternoon...these will dissipate
over the next few hours from north to south. Moderate to high
confidence in low clouds redeveloping tonight after 05Z Monday
initially across southern coastal San Diego County, pushing
northward. Confidence is lower that clouds make it to VCTY KSNA,
which will yield a 40% chance of BKN cigs at KSNA. Bases likely a
touch lower than this morning, around 300-600ft MSL. Vis 1-3 for
coastal TAF sites and elevated coastal terrain in BR. Clouds
clearing to the beaches after 16Z Mon.

.Mountains/Deserts...FEW-SCT high clouds and mostly unrestricted
VIS prevail through early Monday. Confidence moderate to high in
seeing west wind gusts 20-30 kts, locally near 40 kts through the
San Gorgonio Pass, leading to MOD UDDFS 18Z Mon-08Z Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
Wind gusts up to 20-25 kts possible in the outer waters Monday
afternoon near San Clemente Island. Otherwise, no hazardous marine
conditions are expected through Thursday.

&&

.BEACHES...
A 3 foot southerly (190 degrees) swell at 17-18 seconds will
continue to produce elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet with local sets up
to 7 feet, primarily for Orange County and northern San Diego County
beaches. A Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect through late
Sunday evening. Swell and surf heights wane late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM PDT this evening for Orange
     County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...APR