770
FXUS65 KVEF 110503
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1003 PM PDT Thu Apr 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Record or near-record heat continues through Saturday.
Gusty winds and some temperature relief arrive this weekend as a
system passes to our north. Above-normal temperatures linger next
week as dry, breezy conditions prevail.
&&
.UPDATE...It was very warm again today- Las Vegas and Desert
Rock, NV both set or tied new record high temperatures this
afternoon. Across the region, afternoon high temperatures rose
15-20 degrees above normal. Above the surface, scattered clouds
drifted into San Bernardino and Clark counties ahead of a
shortwave moving into northern California. These clouds were very
high based, the 00Z Las Vegas sounding showed very little moisture
below 400mb. These clouds will continue to stream into the region
through the early overnight, but no precipitation is expected.
Winds will be light as any light breezes in the Southern Great
Basin will drop off by sunset. Overnight lows will be warmer than
last night as abundant cloud cover should trap in the daytime
heating. No significant changes were needed for the overnight
forecast with quiet weather prevailing.
-Nickerson-
&&
.SHORT TERM...through Friday.
Our upper-level ridge continues to build, reaching its peak
amplitude today. This will drive temperatures up a few more degrees
from yesterday, with highs in upper 80s to upper 90s across the
Mojave Desert and upper 70s to mid-80s in the southern Great Basin.
Here in Vegas, we`ll likely (90% chance) break our daily high
temperature record of 91 degrees set in 2014.
Tomorrow, a shortwave moving into the PacNW begins to shunt the
ridge off to our east. Enhanced vertical mixing via breezy southwest
winds induced by the approaching system will more than offset the
500mb height falls, culminating in a peak in temperatures on Friday.
Locations in the lower Colorado River Valley will likely see their
first 100s of the season while we top out in the mid to upper 90s in
Vegas. Records will be challenged or broken in Las Vegas, Bishop,
and Needles. Wind gusts on Friday should peak between 15 and 25 mph,
so not expecting any impacts in that regard.
While these temperature values pale in comparison to what we see in
the summer, this heat can still be dangerous. Forecast temperatures
today and Friday result in widespread minor HeatRisk with most
locations below 2000 feet seeing moderate HeatRisk. This heat is
most impactful to individuals sensitive to heat, particularly those
without access to adequate cooling/hydration. However, with limited
exposure to temperatures of this magnitude this season, it`s still
possible for folks with regular heat tolerances to get caught off
guard.
.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.
After several unseasonably hot days, a gradual cooling trend will
begin Saturday, continuing into early next week. This cooling trend
will be facilitated by a shortwave that will translate eastward from
the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, shunting the high
amplitude ridge eastward, and producing a transition to quasi-zonal
flow aloft over southeastern California, southern Nevada, and
northwestern Arizona. While falling heights will yield cooler
temperatures, the temperatures will only fall around 2-4 degrees
each day Saturday through Tuesday, remaining well above normal for
early April, still expected to generally top out in the 60s in the
mountains and the 70s to lower 90s across lower elevations.
Unfortunately, given the shortwave`s northern track, no
precipitation is expected with this system, though there will be an
uptick in winds, especially on Saturday as the pressure gradient
tightens across the region. Currently, ensembles continue to point
toward a corridor of strongest winds located roughly along I-15,
where there is a 40-80% chance of wind gusts to reach or exceed 40
mph for a few hours Saturday afternoon. This will bear watching as
the weekend gets closer, as the speed and depth of the shortwave
will greatly impact the intensity and duration of the winds, which
currently look to diminish quickly Saturday night into Sunday.
In the wake of the shortwave, the aforementioned quasi-zonal flow
aloft will maintain the cooling trend into Monday, though ensembles
and cluster analyses diverge somewhat thereafter in the handling of
the upper pattern. There looks to be some semblance of shortwave
ridging Tuesday into Wednesday that will bring the cooling trend to
an end, though a southern stream low/cutoff trough off of the
southern California Coast and its evolution remains in question.
This low, as well as the strength and amplitude of the ridge will
dictate temperature trends next week, but regardless, dry conditions
and above normal temperatures look to continue for the duration.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light
winds following mainly diurnal patterns will continue through
early Friday afternoon. After 22Z, winds are expected to shift to
the south-southwest, increasing to 10KT, and veer to the southwest
after 00Z, becoming elevated and at least intermittently gusty
thereafter. Gusts during the late afternoon and evening are
expected to range from 15-20KT, with sustained speeds around
10-12KT. After 06-07Z, winds veer further to the southwest, with
sustained speeds expected to increase closer to 15KT with gusts to
20-25KT through the end of the forecast period. Uncertainties
with this forecast include precise timing of the wind shift Friday
afternoon, as well as the frequency and magnitude of gusts.
However, confidence was high enough to include mention. Otherwise,
VFR conditions prevail, with increasing mid and high clouds late
in the period.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Through Friday
afternoon, winds at area terminals will generally follow diurnal
patterns, with speeds remaining under 10KT. KVGT and KHND will
follow similar trends to KLAS, with winds veering to the southwest
after 21-22Z, increasing and becoming gusty, with gusts to around
20KT possible, especially toward the evening. At KBIH, gusty up-
valley winds gusting to around 20KT are expected to develop after
21Z, with winds shifting to the southwest after 12/00Z, and subtly
decreasing thereafter. KDAG will have westerly to northwesterly
winds through Friday afternoon, when winds are expected to back to
the west-southwest, increasing and becoming gusty with sustained
speeds around 15-20KT and gusts to 25-30KT developing after 12/00Z
through the end of the period. In the Lower Colorado River
Valley, winds at KIFP and KEED will remain under 10KT through 22Z,
before shifting to the west-southwest, increasing to around
10-12KT. The main difference is a brief period of gusts is
expected at KIFP during the afternoon and early evening. VFR
conditions will otherwise prevail, with passing mid and high
clouds with bases between 15-25kft.
&&
.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature within 3 degrees of the daily record.
The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).
MAX THU, APR 10 FRI, APR 11
Record (Yr) Record (Yr)
Las Vegas 91 (2014)* 93 (2023)*
Bishop 91 (1989) 86 (2018)*
Needles 103 (1989) 102 (1936)*
Daggett 99 (1989) 93 (2014)*
Kingman 91 (1907)* 96 (1936)
Desert Rock 91 (1989)* 87 (2014)*
Death Valley 110 (1989) 108 (1989)
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Nickerson
SHORT TERM...Woods
LONG TERM...Phillipson
AVIATION...Phillipson
For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter