905 FXUS66 KLOX 151104 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 404 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS...14/1156 PM. High pressure over the region will make today the warmest day of the next 7. The warmest temperatures are expected away from the coast and into the interior portions of the area. Gusty northerly winds will develop each evening tonight and Monday night across southern Santa Barbara County and through the Interstate 5 Corridor. A cooling trend should develop between Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...15/257 AM. Quite the warm day on tap today. 589 dam hgts are over the area stemming from a 594 dam upper high over NM. 1 to 2 mb offshore trends have brought only weak onshore flow to the east and a couple mb of actual offshore flow from the north. The marine layer has been squished to below 1000 ft and this along with the weaker sfc grads has resulted in minimal cloud coverage. The hgts, weak grads and plenty of sunshine will make today the warmest of the next 7. Most areas will warm 2 to 4 degrees (The Central Coast may cool a degree or two with a stronger sea breeze) but the vlys which will not have any marine influence will warm 6 to 8 degrees. The SBA south coast will see 12 to 15 degrees of warming as downsloping northerly winds develop over the area. These max temps are almost all above normal with the Central Coast the only exception. The LA/VTA csts will see highs from the mid 70s to mid 80s with the vlys ending up in the upper 80s and 90s. The SBA south coast will see unusual max temps in the mid to upper 80s. The cool spot will be the Central Coast where most highs will be a few degrees either side of 70. The far interior and lower mtn elevations will see temps from 95 to 105 degrees. These temps while just under advisory criteria are warm enough to create health heat hazards and people should prepare for a hot day. Look for another windy evening across the SBA south coast esp the western portion and another round of wind advisories is very likely. There will be onshore trends and lowering hgts Monday and this will result in a little more low cloud coverage esp across the Central Coast and the LA south coast. A cooling airmass and an earlier sea breeze will team up to lower max temps by 3 to 6 degrees. Even with this cooling, most max temps south of PT Conception will remain well above normal. The strongest north push will occur Monday night and wind advisories will likely be needed for the SBA south coast as well as the I-5 corridor. Weak troffing moves over the area on Tuesday. It does not look like it will affect the weather that much. Marine layer stratus coverage will be similar to Monday`s pattern. Max temps will not change too much with the notable exception of the SBA south coast where the lack of north flow will result in 8 to 12 degrees of cooling. .LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...15/1206 AM. Not much excitement in the xtnd portion of the forecast. A little pop up ridge on Wednesday will be followed by three days of weak troffing. 592 dam hgts Wednesday will fall to 586 dam by Saturday. At the sfc look for increased onshore flow to the east peaking in the afternoons between 7 and 9 mb. Weak to moderate onshore flow will develop and persist in the S to N direction. Look for a typical June night through morning low cloud pattern to develop covering the csts and most vlys. There will be slow clearing across the vlys and esp the beaches and likely no clearing at several west facing beaches. High Wednesday will generally be 3 to 6 degrees above normal with cstl highs mostly in the 70s and vlys highs in the 80s and lower 90s. By Saturday most max temps will be 2 to 4 degrees blo normal with upper 60s to mid 70s for the coastal sxns and mostly lower and mid 80 degree readings in the vlys. The strong onshore push to the east will bring gusty afternoon southwesterly winds across interior sections esp the Antelope Vly. && .AVIATION...15/1103Z. At 0732Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 2700 ft with a temperature of 27 C. Overall, moderate confidence in 12Z TAF Package. Have removed cigs at several coastal airfields especially in LA county. Most sites will see intermittent periods of FEW-SCT conds through 18Z Sun. Thus, generally VFR conds expected. Clearing of cigs at KSMX should be accurate within an hour, and the airfield has the best chance of all sites for (LIFR) cigs to return around 07Z Mon. KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 20% chance IFR/MVFR cigs 006-012 materialize through 18Z Sun. Similar chances for cigs after 12Z Monday. Otherwise, VFR conditions with no significant wind issues are expected through the fcst period. KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF. VFR conditions are expected through forecast period. && .MARINE...15/225 AM. High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northwest winds across the Outer Waters and Inner Waters along the Central coast through next week. Lulls in winds along the Central Coast are likely in the overnight and early morning hours. Localized Gale force wind gusts are likely Sunday afternoon/eve across the waters around Point Conception and the Northern Channel Islands. There is potential for Gale force winds to become widespread across the Outer waters Monday through Tuesday night. Seas will also approach 10 feet at times through next week. High confidence in SCA winds across western and southern portions of the Santa Barbara Channel Saturday afternoon into the late night hours. There is a low-to-moderate chance that SCA level winds reach eastern portions on Sunday. Categorically similar odds for Gale force wind gusts in western portions of the channel Monday and Tuesday afternoon/eve. Otherwise, conditions generally appear to remain below advisory criteria through next week for the remainder of the Inner Waters south of Point Conception. However, localized SCA wind gusts are possible around Anacapa Island and nearshore Malibu during the afternoon/eve hours on Monday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late tonight for zones 354-362-366-367. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Monday afternoon through late Tuesday night for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke AVIATION...Black MARINE...Black/Ciliberti SYNOPSIS...Hall weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox