749
FXUS66 KMTR 140417
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
917 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1253 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Cool and quiet weather continues through the forecast period. Dry
conditions persist across high terrain, leading to elevated grass
fire danger.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 819 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Not much going on tonight, with the eye being drawn to satellite.
High clouds have moved so that they`re now moving over the North
Bay counties, while a secondary batch of high clouds approaches
the Central Coast from the southwest. Outside of that, the
satellite signal is "clear" at this time. Local webcams around the
area may show some lingering stratus which isn`t really detected
via satellite. We`ll need to keep an eye out on the status of the
stratus since some of the latest runs have it coming in a little
later tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1253 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Our story continues with a very seasonably quiet weather pattern
across the CA coast. Minor fluctuations in the marine layer height
will continue to cause some day-to-day differences in humidity
across some of the higher terrain around 2,000 feet. Otherwise
it`s much of the same for most of us closer to sea level. As of
writing, there has been a new fire start south of Hollister. The
good news is that it isn`t particularly windy in the area and
should see good humidity recovery overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1253 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Looking into the longer term; A few small perturbations in the
upper level flow that stay to our north will help tamp down the
effects of a broad upper level ridge. This will keep temps a few
degrees below seasonal normals pretty much across the board. We do
see a *slight* warming trend towards the end of the period mid
next week as the ridge builds over the West Coast, but nothing
terribly notable at this point. Perhaps high temperatures near
normal by the middle of next week. Would not be surprised if we
see additional grass and vegetation fire starts over the next
several days - like the one mentioned near Hollister - as grasses
and fine fuels are very dry and susceptible to catching fire.
Again, the good news is that we are looking to stay under a
seasonable onshore flow regime throughout the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 901 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025
VFR conditions remain at most TAF sites this evening, with little
to no stratus being observed across the Bay Area and Central
Coast. There are some reduced visibilities that are being observed
at KHAF, but outside of that, we are in wait and see mode. The
challenge for the stratus has changed some. The latest guidance
has delayed the onset of low clouds at most sites, and now there`s
even more uncertainty of just how far inland does it goes.
Favored the inherited TAFs, though adjusted timing for nearly all
the sites that are expected to see it. Will need to keep an eye
on KLVK as some guidance has entering the vicnity of the range
ring.
Vicinity of SFO...he marine layer is roughly around 1500ft and
should generally hold tonight. Guidance for SFO is a bit mixed,
but opted to favor the HREF, GLAMP, and NBM guidance for timing
out the return of the stratus tonight which is now a few hours
later than expected. Look for MVFR to IFR CIGS with conditions
improving by late morning. There may be some pesky lingering low
cloud again tomorrow, otherwise expect VFR conditions for the
afternoon and early evening. The stratus signal for tomorrow night
generally favors an after 06Z arrival, though opted to hint at
that with it arriving around 05Z. In addition to the stratus,
gusty west to west- northwest will prevail.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...The region has mostly cleared out, with
stratus lingering on the edge and just offshore of the Monterey
Peninsula. Expect stratus to fill back in tonight, likely around or
after 08Z-10Z and then mix out by mid to late morning.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 840 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes, near gale force gusts, and
moderate to rough seas will prevail through Wednesday. Localized
gale force gusts are expected near the coastal jet regions of
Point Reyes and Point Sur during the afternoon and evening hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 359 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Another veg fire, Lime Fire, developed in the interior Central
Coast again this afternoon. This will be a common theme over the
weekend as elevated fire weather conditions prevail.
Night/morning marine layer will remain with cooler temperatures
and excellent humidity recovery at lower elevations. Above the
marine layer (higher hills/mts) and areas not directly impacted by
the marine layer will see moderate to poor humidity recoveries.
The lack of humidity recovery will keep finer fuels, like grasses,
drier and more susceptible to fire starts. Additionally, given
the onshore flow winds will be gusty each afternoon/evening for
inland valleys (Salinas Valley), and gaps/passes.
The large view for the interior Central Coast shows ERC values
barely exceeding average, burn index close to seasonal averages,
and 100 hr fuel moisture slightly below seasonal averages.
Marine layer will hover 1700-2100 feet the next few days.
MM
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Reyes to
Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon
Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...RGass
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