370
FXUS66 KLOX 062222
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
222 PM PST Mon Jan 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...05/356 PM.

Quiet weather is expected through Monday with warm and dry
conditions, then a major north to northeast wind event will
develop Tuesday. The winds will peak on Wednesday and continue
into Thursday with widespread damaging winds and critical fire
weather conditions. Residents should look for updates about this
event over the next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...06/151 PM.

***STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
   TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY***

For the short term, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through
the period. At upper levels, low will drop south into the Great
Basin tonight, before settling in over northern Mexico Tuesday and
Wednesday with another low dropping into northern Mexico on
Thursday. Near the surface, strong offshore flow will develop
Tuesday/Wednesday with moderate offshore flow on Thursday.

Forecast-wise, attention remains on very strong and damaging Santa
Ana wind event. Latest deterministic models, and their respective
ensembles, all still point to a very strong event. Surface
pressure gradients are forecast to peak in the -6.0 to -8.0 mb
range while the upper level wind/thermal support is very good
(45-65 knots). Also, the pattern is favorable for significant
mountain wave activity across the foothills and valleys of LA and
eastern Ventura county, similar to the 2011 Pasadena wind event,
and any community in this area from around Simi Valley to
Claremont could see gusts of 80 to 100 MPH with this wave
activity. Also, wind gusts of 80 to 100 MPH will be possible
across the mountains of Ventura and LA counties. HIGH WIND
WARNINGS are in effect for many areas of Los Angeles county and
eastern Ventura county Tuesday through Wednesday. Also, have
issued WIND ADVISORIES for the Antelope Valley, the Ventura county
coastal plain, western Ventura Valleys, the eastern Santa Ynez
Range and the interior Santa Barbara county mountains.

By Wednesday night/Thursday, the offshore winds will diminish, but
still remain at strong advisory levels. The second upper low
dropping into northern Mexico on Thursday will be the catalyst for
the advisory-level Santa Ana winds.

Elsewhere across San Luis Obispo and western Santa Barbara
counties, the offshore winds will be much weaker. However, there
will be locally gusty northeast winds through and below passes and
canyons.

For the latest information on the myriad of HIGH WIND WARNINGS and
WIND ADVISORIES, please refer to LAXNPWLOX.

Residents across Southern California are urged to remain vigilant
and monitor the latest forecasts. There is high confidence in
strong offshore winds with the potential to be the strongest wind
event of the season, especially for the Southland valleys. Trees,
large tree branches, and power lines may be downed by the wind
next week. Residents living the near the foothills and mountains
are advised to review the Ready,Set,Go! fire plan. Most residents
should be in the Set stage and being prepared to go in the event
of the fire evacuation.

Max temperatures will be interesting with this event. There will
be so much cold air advection Tuesday that it will totally
overwhelm the usual compressional heating that occurs with Santa
Ana winds. Max temps Tuesday will cool 5 to 10 degrees across the
board. On Wednesday/Thursday, there will be much less cold air
advection and max temps will rise by about 4 to 8 degrees on
Wednesday and a couple more degrees on Thursday for interior
areas.

Overnight lows on Tuesday night and Wednesday night will be very
cold in wind sheltered locations with clear skies, dry air and a
cool airmass.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...06/151 PM.

For the extended, 12Z models continue to exhibit good synoptic
agreement. The overall pattern will be for a upper level ridge to
remain over the eastern Pacific with a couple of lows moving south
across the Great Basin through the weekend.

This pattern will keep dry conditions across the area into early
next week. On Friday and Saturday, weak diurnal flow is expected
with northeasterly winds in the overnight hours and southwesterly
winds in the afternoon hours. The onshore flow will bring a
cooling trend to the area with the best cooling on Saturday.

For Sunday and Monday, deterministic models, and their ensembles,
indicate a return of weak to moderate offshore flow. Still
uncertainty in timing and strength, but some amount of offshore
flow can be expected.

&&

.AVIATION...06/1750Z.

At 17Z at KLAX, there was a surface based inversion up to 1600
feet with a maximum temperature of 18 C.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in 18z TAF package. There is
a 10-20% chance of MVFR conds at KSBP after 10Z. Timing of
cigs/vsby restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and Flight cats
could be off one or two. Timing of wind shifts may be off an hour
or two. Wind gusts may be off +/- 5 kts for KSMX, KBUR, KVNY, and
desert airfields.

After 06Z Tue, LLWS and moderate turbulence will be possible due
to strong N-NE winds over the mtns of LA and Ventura Counties,
especially for KVNY, KBUR, KCMA, KOXR, KSMO, KPMD, and KWJF.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% of cigs
374-378-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Tuesday for zones
      340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 4 AM Tuesday to 6 PM PST
      Wednesday for zones 352-353. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM
      PST Tuesday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 8 AM Tuesday to 6 PM PST
      Wednesday for zones 354>357. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 6 PM PST
      Wednesday for zones 358-362-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect from 4 PM Tuesday to 6 PM PST
      Wednesday for zones 366>368. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning now in effect from 4 AM Tuesday to 6 PM PST
      Wednesday for zones 375-379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 6 PM PST
      Wednesday for zones 381-382. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 2 PM PST
      Wednesday for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect from 4 AM Tuesday to 6 PM PST
      Thursday for zones 288-358-362-369>376-378>380-548. (See LAXRFWLOX).
     Fire Weather Watch in effect from Thursday evening through
      Friday afternoon for zones 288-358-362-369>376-378>380-548. (See LAXRFWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect from 4 AM Tuesday to 6 PM PST
      Wednesday for zones 352-353. (See LAXRFWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 6 PM PST
      Thursday for zones 354-355-377. (See LAXRFWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect from 4 PM Tuesday to 6 PM PST
      Wednesday for zones 366>368. (See LAXRFWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 6 PM PST
      Wednesday for zones 381>383. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 PM PST
      Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 6 AM to 6 PM PST Tuesday for zone
      655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PST Tuesday for
      zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM PST
      Wednesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...30/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox