395
FXUS66 KMFR 020522
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1022 PM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.UPDATE...Updated aviation section.

&&

.AVIATION...02/06 TAFs...VFR will prevail the next 24 hours.
Winds subside tonight, but remain gusty at ridge level, so some
bumpiness is possible on area approaches/departures. Expect another
round of gusty north winds Monday peaking 20-30kt in most places,
but could reach or even exceed 35kt along the coast at North Bend.
Winds should ease again Monday evening after sunset. -BPN/Spilde

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 234 PM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025/

DISCUSSION...There will be some, but little day-to-day change in
conditions from this afternoon through Wednesday. Our weather
will be characterized by gusty, stronger than typical northerly
winds, relatively weak downslope warming for Brookings producing
highs in the 70s, temperatures a few to several degrees above
normal inland, and (mostly) a stable air mass. There will be one
exception, the slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast is
warranted with weak instability ahead of a trough late this
afternoon into the early evening in southern and far eastern Modoc
County.

One area that will see some changes will be the coast from Cape
Blanco northward, into the Coquille Valley. Night and morning low
clouds will be few again on Monday morning, then some modest
increase in coverage for early Tuesday morning, ahead of a deeper
and more widespread push of marine stratus for Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. This will make it a little cooler on the first
two mornings in comparison to Wednesday, but afternoon`s will
persist with near normal temperatures and gusty northerly winds
that will be strongest during the afternoons.

The weak upper trough currently along the far northern California
coast will cut off and drift southwestward on Monday. This will
allow our area to become more influenced by the northern branch
of the upper level flow pattern, with persistent ridging centered
far offshore.

From Thursday through Sunday. The aforementioned night and
morning coastal stratus is expected to be a persistent feature
from around Port Orford northward, with inland temperatures
gradually trending warmer and peak afternoon winds trending
slightly weaker (nudging back to around normal) as the ridge
builds.

As we get into next weekend, uncertainty in the upper level
pattern creeps in. About 25% of ensemble members develop
instability and an influx of mid-level moisture that could support
thunderstorms (with a majority of this cohort focused on the east
side). But, that leaves 75% of the variations which continue
something more closely resembling the hot and dry status quo from
Friday.  -DW

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...

A few low clouds this morning are not anticipated to stick around
much past 18Z. This means mostly clear skies will lead to VFR
conditions for a vast majority--if not the entirety--of this TAF
cycle. The main concern today will be the breezy conditions this
afternoon, but these wind speeds will follow a typical diurnal trend
with easing near/after sunset. However, wind speeds may stay
slightly up along the coast, but not nearly as strong as this
afternoon.

MARINE....Updated 200 PM Sunday, June 01, 2025...Strong northerly
winds across area waters continue to bring gale gusts south of Coos
Bay, building very steep and hazardous seas across these waters.
Steep seas continue to the north of Coos Bay. This pattern looks to
stay in place through Monday evening. On Tuesday, winds ease
slightly, but current guidance keeps gale gusts south of Gold Beach,
with broad areas of very steep and hazardous seas persisting north
of Gold Beach through Tuesday evening. Gale and Hazardous Seas
watches have been issued to communicate these conditions. Through
the remainder of the week, steep to very steep wind-driven seas look
to continue into the weekend.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT Monday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.

     Gale Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening for
     PZZ356-376.

&&

$$

MAS/DW/JWG