879 FXUS66 KMTR 052032 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 132 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 131 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 - Temperatures remain below seasonal averages into early next week. - Marine layer increases and expands farther inland for end of the weekend and continues into early next week. - Gradual pattern change which will bring a warming trend starting Wednesday.&& .SHORT TERM... Issued at 131 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 (This evening through Sunday) Near zonal flow will give way to an upper level low that has formed off the Northwest Coast of CA this afternoon. This will slowly slink meander to the south and then look to hold off our coast through Sunday. This will lead to seasonably cool temperatures continuing and lead to a deepening marine layer. For now, mostly clear skies are observed across much of the Bay Area and Central Coast with stratus clinging to the San Francisco/San Mateo coasts. Stratus is expected to fill back in later this evening and into tonight, and should seep into coastal valleys by Sunday morning. The clouds should retreat to the coast by late Sunday morning or early Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 131 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 (Sunday night through next Friday) A closed low should sit off just to our west through the early portion of the work week, which will allow the marine layer to deepen. Look for nighttime and morning clouds through midweek, with perhaps some coastal drizzle Monday night and again Tuesday night. A pattern change will start around Wednesday which is when ensemble and cluster analysis show the ridge over the Desert Southwest strengthening. Temperatures should increase for the later portion of the week, with Thursday and Friday looking to be the warmest at this time. It`s still too early to say how warm we`ll get as this time, especially since models struggle with how strong the ridge will get. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 IFR to MVFR at MRY and HAF this morning with the greatest likelihood to scatter out at MRY. HAF may maintain ceilings through the TAF period. Onshore winds increase again this afternoon with high confidence for IFR to MVFR ceilings returning late tonight across the Monterey Bay terminals as the marine layer deepens. Moderate to high confidence for MVFR ceilings to develop around the Bay Area terminals early Sunday morning and persist through about 17Z-18Z Sunday. Onshore winds increase again Sunday afternoon, however and forecast to be weaker than previous days. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Onshore winds will increase this afternoon with gusts to around 25 kt. Moderate to high confidence for MVFR (potentially lowering to IFR) Sunday morning. Low clouds will scatter out by around 17Z-18Z Sunday with onshore winds once again increasing by Sunday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR. Onshore winds will increase slightly this afternoon before easing after sunset. High confidence for IFR/MVFR ceilings to develop around the terminals late this evening and potentially lowering to LIFR early Sunday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1026 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Moderate seas and a fresh to strong northwesterly breeze will continue through the remainder of the weekend. Winds will diminish late Sunday into Monday with a moderate breeze to continue through late next week. Occasional gale force gusts are possible along the Big Sur coastline Saturday afternoon. Winds increase and significant wave heights build beginning late next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...RGass MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea