879
FXUS66 KMTR 052032
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
132 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 131 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025

 - Temperatures remain below seasonal averages into early next week.

 - Marine layer increases and expands farther inland for end of the
   weekend and continues into early next week.

 - Gradual pattern change which will bring a warming trend
   starting Wednesday.&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 131 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025
(This evening through Sunday)

Near zonal flow will give way to an upper level low that has formed
off the Northwest Coast of CA this afternoon. This will slowly slink
meander to the south and then look to hold off our coast through
Sunday. This will lead to seasonably cool temperatures continuing
and lead to a deepening marine layer. For now, mostly clear skies
are observed across much of the Bay Area and Central Coast with
stratus clinging to the San Francisco/San Mateo coasts. Stratus is
expected to fill back in later this evening and into tonight, and
should seep into coastal valleys by Sunday morning. The clouds
should retreat to the coast by late Sunday morning or early Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 131 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025
(Sunday night through next Friday)

A closed low should sit off just to our west through the early
portion of the work week, which will allow the marine layer to
deepen. Look for nighttime and morning clouds through midweek, with
perhaps some coastal drizzle Monday night and again Tuesday night. A
pattern change will start around Wednesday which is when ensemble
and cluster analysis show the ridge over the Desert Southwest
strengthening. Temperatures should increase for the later portion of
the week, with Thursday and Friday looking to be the warmest at this
time. It`s still too early to say how warm we`ll get as this time,
especially since models struggle with how strong the ridge will get.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1026 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025

IFR to MVFR at MRY and HAF this morning with the greatest likelihood
to scatter out at MRY. HAF may maintain ceilings through the TAF
period. Onshore winds increase again this afternoon with high
confidence for IFR to MVFR ceilings returning late tonight across the
Monterey Bay terminals as the marine layer deepens. Moderate to high
confidence for MVFR ceilings to develop around the Bay Area
terminals early Sunday morning and persist through about 17Z-18Z
Sunday. Onshore winds increase again Sunday afternoon, however and
forecast to be weaker than previous days.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Onshore winds will increase this afternoon
with gusts to around 25 kt. Moderate to high confidence for MVFR
(potentially lowering to IFR) Sunday morning. Low clouds will
scatter out by around 17Z-18Z Sunday with onshore winds once again
increasing by Sunday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR. Onshore winds will increase slightly
this afternoon before easing after sunset. High confidence for
IFR/MVFR ceilings to develop around the terminals late this evening
and potentially lowering to LIFR early Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1026 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Moderate seas and a fresh to strong northwesterly breeze will
continue through the remainder of the weekend. Winds will
diminish late Sunday into Monday with a moderate breeze to
continue through late next week. Occasional gale force gusts are
possible along the Big Sur coastline Saturday afternoon. Winds
increase and significant wave heights build beginning late next
week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea