822 FXUS65 KVEF 260832 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 130 AM PDT Sat Jul 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Temperatures will remain below normal throughout the weekend before a slow warm-up begins early next week. * Moisture levels will remain low through the weekend, keeping most of the area dry. A slight uptick in monsoonal moisture across Arizona next week will bring some precipitation chances to eastern Mohave County by mid-week. && .DISCUSSION...through Thursday. A long wave trough over the eastern Pacific will remain in place through the weekend helping to keep temperatures a few degrees below normal. A weak closed low just off the central California coast will open and become absorbed into the main long wave trough. Due to the increased surface gradient of this weak low, we will see another day of breezy afternoon south to southwest winds. By Sunday, winds will weaken as the pressure gradient relaxes. There will still be some mid level moisture over the southern Sierra which will lead to one more day of isolated afternoon thunderstorms, generally north of Mount Whitney, but by Sunday any convection should remain north of Inyo County. AS we go into next week, a strong ridge of high pressure over the central portions of the US will begin to shift west. This will increase heights and bring temperatures back to near normal to slightly above normal starting Monday. Although we will begin the warm up, the good news is that the HeatRisk will generally remain at 1 (Minor) to 2 (Moderate) through much of the week. Later in the week as the strong high pressure over the central plains will spreads west, we will see an increase in monsoonal flow across Arizona. How far west the moisture will get is still in question as it will be fighting the southwest flow that is associated with the long wave trough off the coast. At this point, the models are indicating PWATs increasing to around .70" to .80" across far southern and eastern Mohave County by Tuesday, leading to increased chances of thunderstorms in these areas. Only time will tell if this deeper moisture is able to make is west of the Colorado River, but with the latest model runs, that looks unlikely. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light southwesterly winds will continue through mid- morning tomorrow when winds will pick up and swing around to the south-southeast. From mid- morning to early-afternoon, it is possible that wind direction may vary from 140 degrees to 210 degrees before settling in from the southwest during the afternoon. These breezier southwesterly winds will continue through sunset when wind gusts will drop off with light southwesterly winds continuing through the overnight hours. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with no operationally significant cloud cover expected. Temperatures will get very close to, but may not quite reach, 100 degrees between 22Z and 02Z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Winds across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona will favor a southerly direction through the overnight period. These southerly winds will pick up during the late morning to early afternoon period on Saturday, with breezy southerly winds continuing through the afternoon. Winds in the Owens Valley will follow typical diurnal directional trends with breezier up-valley winds picking up during the afternoon and evening. Elevated westerly winds will continue across the western Mojave Desert through the TAF period with 20 to 25 knot wind gusts dropping off early Saturday morning and picking back up around mid- afternoon tomorrow. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with no operationally significant cloud cover expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gorelow AVIATION...Stessman For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter