822
FXUS65 KVEF 260832
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
130 AM PDT Sat Jul 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures will remain below normal throughout the weekend
  before a slow warm-up begins early next week.

* Moisture levels will remain low through the weekend, keeping most
  of the area dry.  A slight uptick in monsoonal moisture across
  Arizona next week will bring some precipitation chances to eastern
  Mohave County by mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Thursday.
A long wave trough over the eastern Pacific will remain in place
through the weekend helping to keep temperatures a few degrees below
normal. A weak closed low just off the central California coast will
open and become absorbed into the main long wave trough. Due to the
increased surface gradient of this weak low, we will see another day
of breezy afternoon south to southwest winds. By Sunday, winds will
weaken as the pressure gradient relaxes. There will still be some
mid level moisture over the southern Sierra which will lead to one
more day of isolated afternoon thunderstorms, generally north of
Mount Whitney, but by Sunday any convection should remain north of
Inyo County.

AS we go into next week, a strong ridge of high pressure over the
central portions of the US will begin to shift west. This will
increase heights and bring temperatures back to near normal to
slightly above normal starting Monday. Although we will begin the
warm up, the good news is that the HeatRisk will generally remain at
1 (Minor) to 2 (Moderate) through much of the week.

Later in the week as the strong high pressure over the central
plains will spreads west, we will see an increase in monsoonal flow
across Arizona. How far west the moisture will get is still in
question as it will be fighting the southwest flow that is
associated with the long wave trough off the coast. At this point,
the models are indicating PWATs increasing to around .70" to .80"
across far southern and eastern Mohave County by Tuesday, leading to
increased chances of thunderstorms in these areas. Only time will
tell if this deeper moisture is able to make is west of the Colorado
River, but with the latest model runs, that looks unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light
southwesterly winds will continue through mid- morning tomorrow
when winds will pick up and swing around to the south-southeast.
From mid- morning to early-afternoon, it is possible that wind
direction may vary from 140 degrees to 210 degrees before settling
in from the southwest during the afternoon. These breezier
southwesterly winds will continue through sunset when wind gusts
will drop off with light southwesterly winds continuing through
the overnight hours. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period with no operationally significant cloud cover expected.
Temperatures will get very close to, but may not quite reach, 100
degrees between 22Z and 02Z.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Winds across southern
Nevada and northwest Arizona will favor a southerly direction
through the overnight period. These southerly winds will pick up
during the late morning to early afternoon period on Saturday,
with breezy southerly winds continuing through the afternoon.
Winds in the Owens Valley will follow typical diurnal directional
trends with breezier up-valley winds picking up during the
afternoon and evening. Elevated westerly winds will continue
across the western Mojave Desert through the TAF period with 20 to
25 knot wind gusts dropping off early Saturday morning and
picking back up around mid- afternoon tomorrow. VFR conditions
will prevail through the TAF period with no operationally
significant cloud cover expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gorelow
AVIATION...Stessman

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