942
FXUS66 KLOX 251713
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1013 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...24/421 PM.

Night through morning low clouds and fog will continue to be a
staple of the forecast for most coast and some valley locations
through Sunday. Persistent onshore flow will remain in place
through the weekend over the California coast and keep an onshore
flow regime across the area. Temperatures will continue to be on
the cool side of seasonal normals into early next week, then a
warming trend should start to develop as onshore flow weakens.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...25/933 AM.

***UPDATE***

The marine layer is currently between 2000-2500 feet deep,
which can be observed especially north of Point Conception where
clouds have overspread much of San Luis Obispo County and western
Santa Barbara County. Skies will clear by late morning for
southern areas, and likely by the early afternoon for northern
areas.

Sundowner Winds across southwestern Santa Barbara County will
continue through Sunday, with local gusts near 45 mph expected
for wind prone areas this evening into night. Sundowner winds
will generally trend weaker by the weekend.

Onshore east-to-west surface pressure gradients will again
yield gusty afternoon and evening winds across the interior
today. Winds will be strongest for the Antelope Valley and
foothills, with gusts of 25-35 mph (local gusts to 40 mph for wind
prone foothills) expected to be common today.

***From Previous Discussion***

Overall, 00Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short
term period. At upper levels, the area will be influenced by a low
over Central California, but for Saturday/Sunday high pressure
building over the central States will exert more influence. Near
the surface, moderate onshore gradients will persist to the east
with weakening northerly offshore gradients.

Forecast-wise, the rather benign weather will continue across the
area with stratus coverage the main forecast challenge. For
tonight and Saturday, H5 heights lower a bit which will allow the
inversion to deepen a bit and stratus should push a bit further
inland. By Saturday night/Sunday, H5 heights start to increase
which will reduce the depth and coverage of the marine layer
stratus. Other than stratus, skies should remain mostly clear
through the period.

As for temperatures, expect minor day-to-day fluctuations. For
today and Saturday, will expect a cooling trend of a couple
degrees for most areas with continued marine influence and lower
H5 heights. However on Sunday, with less extensive marine layer
and some increase in H5 heights, most areas should warm up a few
degrees.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...25/346 AM.

For the extended, 00Z models continue to exhibit good synoptic
agreement. At upper levels, high pressure will shift a bit
eastward near the 4 Corners area Monday/Tuesday before retreating
back east a bit on Wednesday/Thursday. Near the surface, moderate
onshore gradients will continue to the east with weak northerly
offshore gradients.

Forecast-wise, Monday and Tuesday will be nicest days of the week
with limited marine layer and high temperatures hovering around
seasonal normals. Winds do not look to be an issue for Monday and
Tuesday, with both the onshore winds in the afternoon and any
Sundowners remaining below advisory levels.

For Wednesday and Thursday, H5 heights lower a bit. This will
allow for a couple degrees of cooling in many areas with a bit of
an increase in stratus/fog during the night and morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1711Z.

At 1629Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was 4000 feet with a temperature of 17 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KWJF and KPMD.

Moderate confidence for remaining TAFs. There is a 40% chance of
IFR CIGs at KPRB from 10Z to 16Z Sat. Flight cat changes may be
off +/- 2 hours and minimums by one category.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Arrival and departure of
CIGs may be off by +/- 2 hours. Good confidence in MVFR CIGs
010-015. No significant easterly wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Arrival and departure of
CIGs may be off by +/- 2 hours. CIGs may scatter out at end of
forecast period (15Z-18Z Sat).

&&

.MARINE...25/812 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Saturday, high confidence in Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level winds across PZZ673/676 and a 30% chance of
SCA level winds across PZZ670. For Sunday through Tuesday, high
confidence in SCA level winds for PZZ673/676 with a 50-60% chance
of SCA level winds across PZZ670.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in
current forecast. Today through Tuesday, there is a 30-50% chance
of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, high confidence
in SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara
Channel in the late afternoon and evening hours with a 20% chance
of SCA level wind elsewhere across the Southern Inner Waters. For
Monday through Tuesday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds
across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel during the
late afternoon and evening hours with high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere across the southern
Inner Waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...RAT/Black
SYNOPSIS...Hall/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox