673 FXUS65 KVEF 080230 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 730 PM PDT Sat Jun 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated thunderstorms over the mountains will be possible across the eastern Sierra and southern Great Basin through Monday as a ridge of high pressure slowly pushes moisture to the north. Thunderstorm coverage and intensity will continue to decrease each afternoon as the region dries out and temperatures climb. Dangerous heat will be in place early next week, and an Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for portions of the Mojave Desert for Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Early this evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of Esmeralda, Nye, and Lincoln Counties, with some southeastward development noted into far northwestern Clark County. These storms have been weak and short-lived, capable of producing brief rainfall and gusty winds, though there has been quite a bit of lightning, especially over Nye and northern Lincoln Counties. Expect these storms to continue percolating for a few more hours, gradually weakening and diminishing with the loss of heating through late evening. Aside from minor adjustments to PoPs to capture current conditions and near term trends, the forecast is on track, with lows expected to drop into the 60s and 70s for most overnight. && .SHORT TERM...through Sunday night. Early afternoon satellite loop showed cumulus clouds building on the higher terrain roughly north of a line from Olancha to Las Vegas to Kingman. Thus far, the only thunderstorms which have managed to develop have been in Lincoln County, and these have been short-lived. Surface obs showed mostly light winds with temperatures several degrees higher and dewpoints several degrees lower than 24 hours ago. Weak low pressure off the California coast will continue drifting slowly east through Sunday night, producing weak southerly flow which will advect in drier air from the south, very slowly drying us out from south to north. This will keep thunderstorm chances confined to the southern Great Basin, with slightly less coverage expected Sunday than today. The drier air will allow temperatures to climb a few more degrees on Sunday, leading to conditions which could be dangerous for anyone who is susceptible to the heat or will be outdoors for extended periods. .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday. The work week will start off hot and dry as ridging maintains the warming trend, which looks to peak Monday and Tuesday. Highs across the region will be in the 90s and 100s for all but the mountains, where temperatures will top out in the 80s - around 8 to 10 degrees above normal. Monday and Tuesday will also see widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk, and an Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for portions of the Mojave Desert for Tuesday. Those with outdoor plans or who are vulnerable to the heat will need to plan accordingly. After Tuesday, a pattern shift is expected as a trough begins developing over the West Coast in response to a deepening low over the Gulf of Alaska. Cluster analyses and ensemble guidance continue to be in good agreement, keeping this system to the west of the area, which will result in a transition to quasi-zonal or southwesterly flow aloft midweek onward. This will allow for a slow cooling trend as heights fall, though temperatures will still remain above normal through the end of the week. There are also indications of weak shortwaves rounding the base of the larger-scale trough, but given the dry antecedent conditions, little will result from these shortwaves beyond periodic breezy conditions across the region. Overall, the pattern looks to be fairly quiescent through next week, and a bit more on par with what`s to be expected in early to mid June. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Easterly winds under 10 knots are expected through the day, although an errant gust to around 15 knots cannot be ruled out. Winds should turn back to southwesterly around or before sunset. Clouds will build up over the mountains, but these are not expected to affect the terminal. Similar weather is expected on Sunday. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon over the mountains of Lincoln and central Nye counties, possibly reaching as far west as Esmeralda and Inyo counties. The main threats with these storms will be erratic gusty winds and low ceilings with terrain obscuration. Away from storms, quiet weather is expected with winds under 20 knots. Storms should die off shortly after sunset. Similar weather is expected on Sunday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Phillipson SHORT TERM...Morgan LONG TERM...Phillipson AVIATION...Morgan For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter