314 FXUS65 KVEF 271744 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1043 AM PDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Expect continued light showers and isolated thunderstorms across the southern Great Basin today as well as region-wide below-normal temperatures and gusty southwest winds as a weather system pushes out of the area. Broad ridging will grow over the western United States through the week, which will allow for warming temperatures, calmer winds, and dry conditions. Watching another weather system approach the region next weekend. && .UPDATE... This morning, the low responsible for our breezy to windy conditions, cloud cover, and much cooler temperatures continues slowly churning east-northeastward toward the Nevada/Utah border. Intermittent showers also continue across the Southern Great Basin, where locations from Central Nye County to Lincoln county have reported anywhere from a few hundredths of an inch to over a tenth of an inch of precipitation over the past three hours. With snow levels hovering around 5000ft, lingering snow showers are expected across the higher elevations, though these will quickly come to an end this afternoon as snow levels quickly increase in the wake of the departing low. Regardless, any accumulations would be light, limited to a dusting to around an inch, at most. Showers are still progged to gradually come to an end by late this afternoon into early evening as the low continues its progression, with unseasonably chilly temperatures sticking around through tonight. Afternoon temperatures are still on target to top out around 10 to 15 degrees below normal, with lows tonight in the mid 30s to around 50 degrees for most. Given the forecast remains on track, no updates are warranted at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION...304 AM PDT Sun Apr 27 2025... .SHORT TERM...Today and Monday. The upper-level low over the region will continue to shift eastward through the day today as the trough axis pushes through the forecast area. Modest moisture (0.25 - 0.75" of PWAT) coupled with meager instability (50 - 150 J/kg of CAPE) will result in persistent light showers and isolated thunderstorms across the southern Great Basin this morning and afternoon. Expect additional precipitation accumulation between 0.05 and 0.10 inches across northern Esmeralda, north-central Nye, and northern Lincoln counties and between 0.01 and 0.05 inches across northern Inyo and northwestern Clark counties today. Snow levels will rapidly increase as the day progresses, but will start off between 4000 and 5000 feet, which would result in 0.5 to 1.5 inches of additional snowfall in the higher terrain of the southern Great Basin. In general, impacts from this precipitation should be minimal, with the exception of slick driving conditions as the light rain combines with dirt, oil, and grime on the roads. Wind-wise, as the trough axis pushes through the forecast area today, expect gusty west-southwest winds ahead of the front, with gust speeds between 15 and 25 mph across the central and eastern Mojave Desert and between 25 and 35 mph across the western Mojave Desert. DCAPE will be greatest in Lincoln County this afternoon between 250 and 500 J/kg, so gusty winds to 30 mph can be expected from isolated thunderstorm formation. Monday afternoon, post-frontal winds will shift from the northwest, with strongest speeds in Esmeralda and central Nye between 20 and 30 mph. Today will be the coolest day of the forecast period, with each climate site observing highs in the Top 10 Coolest for April 27th. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday. Model clusters are in good agreement through Thursday before beginning to diverge Friday and especially Saturday. As low pressure moves away to the east, the overall flow should shift from northerly on Tuesday to northwesterly on Wednesday. Another, weaker low is forecast to pass by to the north on Wednesday. The main question is how deep this low might be, which would be one determining factor in how far south precip chances might get. The overall consensus is for a weak solution, which would limit precip chances to the far northern fringes of our area, although there are a few outlying stronger solutions. As high pressure moves in from the Pacific on Thursday, this low should get trapped over our area in a configuration similar to a Rex block. If the low is indeed weak, its only effects on our area could be clouds and a few degrees less warming than the high pressure would imply, but if the outlying stronger solutions verify better, showery weather could come into play. The next trough in the westerlies should reach the West Coast Friday or Saturday and move inland, kicking out the aforementioned low and bringing increasing winds and precip chances along with cooler temperatures. At this point, it looks like Friday should be the warmest day, with high temperatures areawide about 10 degrees warmer than on Monday, although this would change if the stronger solutions come to pass. Saturday could be the windiest day, although this would change if the speed of the incoming trough changes. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds will become predominantly southwest with gusts of 20 to 25 knots by early afternoon, and remain from that direction well into the evening. Winds will decrease overnight before shifting to the northeast after 15Z tomorrow at moderate speeds. VFR conditions will prevail through Monday with bases remaining AOA 15kft AGL. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las Vegas area TAF sites will be similar to those described for Harry Reid, except the shift to the north on Monday will be earlier for KVGT and later for KHND. KBIH has continued to be plagued by low clouds this morning, but these are expected to decrease and lift over the next few hours. Winds will remain mainly northerly with speeds less than 15 knots through Monday. Gusty south to west winds will persist across the western Mojave Desert and Colorado River Valley through the afternoon. Winds will decrease in the valley overnight, but gusty conditions will continue into Monday near KDAG. Other than the low clouds mentioned near KBIH, VFR conditions are expected through Monday with bases generally remaining AOA 10kft AGL. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Phillipson SHORT TERM...Soulat LONG TERM...Morgan AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter