449
FXUS64 KHUN 262324
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
624 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Under partly cloudy skies temperatures have risen into the high
80s to low 90s across the area. Along the western periphery of
high pressure, continued SW flow is supporting scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms across the area. These will continue to
move south to north over the next several hours and wane just
after sunset yielding a mostly clear night. Despite clear and
calm conditions, overnight lows will only drop into the mid 70s
before another hot and humid day tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Through the short term forecast, ridging will continue to build and
anchor itself over the TN Valley. At the surface this will amount to
a significant warming trend in both our temperatures and heat
indexes through mid week. Temps look to rise from the low 90s on
Sunday to the high 90s on Tuesday. These temps couples with dew
points in the mid to high 70s will amount to heat indexes also
increasing steadily through mid week. Values look to increase from
100-105 on Sunday to 105-110+ by Tuesday.

We have rather high confidence in seeing these
values as long range models have been hinting at this pattern for
over a week and probabilities of seeing 100-105+ heat indexes continue
to increase in the LREF and NBM. With that being said, Heat Products
will be needed for a majority of the area through mid week. For this
forecast update, a Heat Advisory has been issued for NW and north
central Alabama along with Lincoln and Moore counties in southern
middle TN from 11 AM to 9 PM tomorrow on Sunday.

While we look to meet Heat Advisory Criteria again through the start
of the week, we will postpone issuing additional products until
tomorrow to allow for more in depth analysis of HIRES model guidance
to aid in differentiating who will see a Heat Advisory and who will
see an Extreme Heat Warning through mid week. Currently NW AL looks
most favorable to see and Extreme Heat Warning. Regardless of the
exact products issued, it will be incredibly important to continue to
practice proper heat and sun safety through the week. We will be in
major heat risk for the entire area through mid week meaning this
level of heat will impact anyone and everyone without proper heating
and hydration and could result in a strain on health care services
and our cooling infrastructure. Make sure to have a plan for you and
your loved ones including pets for dealing with the heat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 920 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Upper level ridging will strengthen over the Southeast and
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, then stretch westward over the Plains
by midweek. From Wednesday through Friday, an upper trough over
eastern Canada will dive southeast over the northeastern U.S.,
shifting the greater influence of the ridge over the central CONUS.
At the surface, high pressure looks to persist over the Appalachians
until a surface front traverses the Midwest and Ohio Valley by
Wednesday. This feature is shown to then gradually make its way
south, progressing over the Tennessee Valley Thursday into Friday.
Thus, very hot conditions (the hottest of the year so far) will
comprise the first half of the long term period, with higher
shower/storm chances and somewhat cooler conditions to follow by late
week.

As moisture remains elevated for the region through the period, this
combined with forecast highs in the mid to upper 90s will lead to
very hot conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. In fact, it will be the
hottest heat wave we`ve seen so far thus summer, as heat indices are
expected to reach between 105-115 degrees! Yes, it`s summer and it`s
hot during the summer. However, to put it into perspective a little
bit: in Huntsville so far this July there has only been one day with
high temperatures below 90 degrees and 18 days with heat indices at
or above 100 degrees. Yes, it is hot, but Tuesday and Wednesday will
be exceptionally hot. Criteria for an Extreme Heat Warning requires
heat indices at or above 110 degrees or air temperatures greater than
105 degrees. Therefore, as has been the trend the past couple of
days, it`s looking more and more likely that we will meet this
criteria with our forecast heat index values. That being said, heat
products will be necessary in the coming days to account for this.
So, what can you do to be safe in this extreme heat? Make sure to
drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks in the shade, wear light-
colored and light-weight clothing, and never leave people or pets in
vehicles!

As we move into the latter half of the week, the aforementioned
upper trough and surface front will bring much needed relief from the
oppressive heat. Highs are expected to "cool" into the upper 80s to
lower 90s by Friday along with increased shower and storm chances
both Thursday and Friday. At this time, severe weather is not
anticipated, but any storm that becomes strong will be capable of
producing gusty winds, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning. For
those working outside or have outdoor activities, remember: when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Shower and storm activity to our southwest continues to gradually
make its way towards north Alabama late this afternoon; however,
much of the activity has seemed to dwindle as it gets close.
Regardless, low chances (10-30%) of showers and storms will
continue for the next couple of hours then decrease through the
evening hours. No showers or storms are then forecast overnight.
While patchy river valley fog is possible later tonight, not
currently thinking the terminals will be impacted. Another hot day
with low (10-30%) chances of showers and storms is on tap for
Sunday. Storms will be capable of heavy downpours, some gusty
winds, and lightning and may also bring brief periods of lower
CIGs and VIS to the terminals should any storms move over them.
Outside of any storms, light and variable winds tonight will
become westerly at around 5 knots or so by early Sunday afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ001>008-016.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ076-096.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...26