177 FXUS65 KREV 260831 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 131 AM PDT Sat Jul 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Thunderstorm activity continues through Sunday. Potential impacts include heavy downpours and flooding, strong outflows, small hail, and lightning. * Cooler than normal temperatures expected this weekend. * A gradual warming trend returns next week, bringing highs up to near normal, but with continued chances for showers and storms in the afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... * Showers and thunderstorms will once again form throughout the area by the late morning into the evening. The best chances will be in far western NV and the immediate Sierra (40-65%), with decreasing chances into the inner basin (30-50%). The weak upper low aloft will slightly shift east today, resulting in increased storm coverage for western NV and into the inner-basin compared to the last few days. With a near-similar environment per latest CAMs, storms will once again produce heavy rain, with PWATs between 0.6-0.8". Similar to yesterday, other hazards are to include gusty outflow winds, frequent lightning, small hail, and possible dust-storms. High-resolution solutions show continued chances for storms on Sunday, but with lower chances (20-35%) and coverage compared to today as the upper low moves out of the area. * Looking at the synoptic pattern for Monday into at least Thursday, we`ll have a deep trough in the northeast Pacific and high pressure over the southeast US. This will allow for short- waves to move into the area, which will help with daily chances for convection. Blended guidance keeps a daily 15-30% chance for showers and storms impacting the Sierra and W.NV next week, with the best chances on Wednesday and Thursday. This time frame still shows the possibility of high-based convection. * With the pattern in place, high temperatures will remain between 5-10 degrees below average this weekend. We have a slight warmup into mid-week, but highs remain 3-5 degrees below average for late July and the first days of August. -McKellar && .AVIATION... * VFR conditions this morning will give way to MVFR conditions for some terminals as afternoon storms return to the region. Be aware of rapidly changing conditions as storms form, including LLWS, turbulence and mountain obscuration due to heavy rains. Showers today arrive in earnest around 20z, although some showers could develop as early as 18z. Storms should wrap up around 03z or until sunset, with the later showers hanging around Tahoe basin terminals KTVL and KTRK. Chances today around 40-60% for all terminals. -McKellar && .FIRE WEATHER... * Widespread thunderstorms and showers today, with chances ranging 30-60%. Humidity will remain elevated, however a lightning strike outside of the wet cores of storms may ignite receptive fuels. Frequent lightning is expected through the evening. * Sunday, lowering relative humidity at the surface along with instability aloft will provide an environment that could produce dry lightning. HRICH/McKellar && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$