976
FXUS66 KSGX 151606
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
906 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat will peak today, with a gradual cooling starting Monday and
continuing through most of the week. Night and morning low clouds
and fog can be expected each day along the coast, reaching into
portions of the valleys for the middle to end of the week. Breezy
west winds across the mountains and deserts each afternoon and
evening, strongest on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Visible satellite this morning was showing low clouds rapidly
retreating to the beaches. High resolution guidance continues to
show clear skies will prevail this afternoon from the beaches to the
deserts. Low clouds are expected to remain persistent each night and
morning for the coast early this week, with areas of locally dense
fog possible. The marine layer is expected to deepen for the middle
to end of next week as a more amplified trough of low pressure
approaches the West Coast.

Today is expected to be the peak of the heat with high temperatures
mostly 5 to 10 degrees above average. Widespread moderate HeatRisk
will impact the inland valleys, mountain foothills, and High Desert
today, with moderate to locally major HeatRisk in the low desert.
Make sure you`re staying hydrated and seeking shade if you`re
spending time outdoors. If possible, avoid strenuous outdoor
activity during the hottest part of the day (12pm-5pm). The ridge of
high pressure over us today will begin to  flatten Monday as an
upper level trough moves inland across the West Coast. That will
kick off a gradual cooling with highs Monday a few degrees cooler
than today and additional cooling into Tuesday.

In addition to a few degrees of cooling, onshore flow will
strengthen for the beginning of the week. That will bring breezy
west winds on the desert mountain slopes, below the passes, and into
the deserts during the afternoons and evenings. Strongest winds are
expected Monday with gusts 30 to 45 mph, locally up to 50 mph
through the San Gorgonio Pass.

Global ensemble clusters show a brief rebound in the ridge for
Wednesday, which will bring a few degrees of warming to inland
areas. Highs will be mostly 5 to 10 degrees above average again. NBM
chances for the Inland Empire to exceed 100 degrees is 10 to 20
percent, locally up to 60 percent for eastern portions of the Inland
Empire. In the low desert, NBM has a 40 to 50 percent chance of high
temperatures exceeding 110 degrees. The warming on Wednesday will be
short lived as there is good ensemble agreement in a more amplified
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest Thursday through the
weekend. While there is still some uncertainty in the finer details
cooler conditions, increased winds, and a deeper marine layer can be
expected for the end of the week. There is high confidence in dry
conditions with this passing trough.

&&

.AVIATION...
151525Z....Coast/Valleys...Low clouds based around 400-800ft MSL
with tops near 1500ft MSL are beginning to clear western valleys
this morning. This pattern will continue with full clearing to the
coast expected by 17-18Z. Low clouds redevelop tonight around 06z
Monday initially across southern coastal San Diego County. Clouds
spreading 5-10 miles inland and northward into southern Orange
County by 09-12z Monday. This will yield a 35% chance of BKN cigs
VCTY KSNA. Bases likely a touch lower than this morning, around 300-
600ft MSL.

.Mountains/Deserts...FEW-SCT high clouds and mostly unrestricted
VIS prevail through early Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Wind gusts up to 20-25 kts possible in the outer waters Monday
afternoon, primarily near San Clemente Island. Otherwise, no
hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday.

&&

.BEACHES...
A 3 foot southerly (190 degrees) swell at 17-18 seconds will
continue to produce elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet with local sets up
to 7 feet, primarily for Orange County and northern San Diego County
beaches. A Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect through late
Sunday evening. Swell and surf heights wane late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for Orange County
     Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...APR