652 FXUS66 KMTR 142233 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 233 PM PST Tue Jan 14 2025 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 110 PM PST Tue Jan 14 2025 Dry weather with mostly sunny skies and light winds will persist through the week. Expect daytime highs to be around or slightly above normal with seasonably cold morning lows. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 110 PM PST Tue Jan 14 2025 Clear skies for all once again today as weak offshore flow continues. Tonight and tomorrow will be much of the same story as today with chilly overnight temps and a mild, cloudless afternoon. Temperatures this morning verified the Frost Advisory in all areas where it was issued (just based on the ambient temperature), but conditions are too dry to actually have frost formation in many areas. However, we continue to issue advisories based on the ambient temperature for societal impacts. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 110 PM PST Tue Jan 14 2025 The upper low that resulted in breezy winds yesterday morning has closed off and is now lingering over the waters off the coast of SoCal away from much of its initial jet influence. Therefore, it is expected to eventually fill in and move inland by late this week. This will promote some breezy winds Friday and Saturday afternoons, but not expecting anything impactful at the moment. The main point of interest this weekend will be the overnight temperatures once again, with morning lows in the 30s for most of the region outside of the immediate SF Peninsula and Sonoma coastlines. Otherwise, there is high confidence that a blocking ridge pattern will setup and persist well through the extended forecast period with no rain in sight. We are particularly worried yet since the energy release component of some larger fuels is still below critical. However, drying out beyond critical can occur very quickly over the next two weeks, especially if we make it into the first half of February without any rainfall. In comparison to last year and to serve as a reminder that these mid-season dry spells are not entirely uncommon, areas south of the Bay Area that are significantly drier than the North Bay have actually seen more rainfall up to this point in the water year compared to last year. The caveat to that is that we had a few prolific rainmakers to kick off February 2024 and bring us back to normal. It may be alarming how dry we are right now, but we still have time to potentially turn it around. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 944 AM PST Tue Jan 14 2025 VFR is expected to persist through the TAF period with mostly light and moderate winds throughout. Vicinity of SFO...VFR with weak onshore flow this afternoon, easing after sunset and becoming offshore again on Wednesday. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with increasing drainage flow late tonight into early Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 944 AM PST Tue Jan 14 2025 Light to moderate northerly flow will persist over the coastal waters much of this week, with relatively light winds that don`t increase much until later this week and into weekend. Sea state will be low with moderate period. && .BEACHES... Issued at 950 AM PST Tue Jan 14 2025 There is a slight risk of sneaker waves as the tide goes out this afternoon, with low tide around 6 PM PST. The large tidal swings resulting in a draw down of water will help mitigate the risk somewhat but remember to never turn your back on the ocean and observe the beautiful sunset over the water from a safe distance. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea