260
FXUS66 KEKA 020644
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1144 PM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warm conditions continue, albeit a few degrees cooler
than the previous few days. Relatively gusty winds will continue
though earl this week. Warm and dry conditions for the first week
of June are to be expected.


KEY MESSAGES:

-Strong gusty winds near shore Monday afternoon, and diminishing
 throughout the week.

-Slight Fire Concerns Monday afternoon for portions of the
 interior (interior Del Norte, eastern Trinity, NE Mendocino, and
 eastern Lake), with relatively dry conditions for the interior
 all week


&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong pressure gradient continues to gradually
diminish along the North Coast. High pressure out in the eastern
Pacific continues to push against a low pressure system ejecting
off shore to the south of Northwest California. Northerly winds
over the region have a chance to remain elevated into Monday
afternoon and will continue to diminish along the North Coast
through mid week. The highest gusts will linger over higher
elevations and particularly at the King Range and the Klamath
Mountains of Del Norte County.

Area fuels are not advanced in the curing process to warrant
raising red flags for problematic zones. Of particular interest
for Monday are eastern and southern Trinity county along with
isolated ares of interior Del Norte and southern Lake. Fine fuels
are likely the only probable source for ignition on this side of
the valley. 1000 and 100 hour dead fuels need a few more cycles of
warm and dry conditions, which will occur sooner than later.

With the high pressure system moving over the area Monday,
interior regions could have periods in the afternoon with gusty
winds and low min RHs (15% to 25%). Wind along shore will also
gradually decrease after Monday, though some moderate afternoon
gusts remain most likely through mid week. Long range ensembles
show generally high confidence in warm, dry conditions continuing
through the first week of June.


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF:

-Winds ease some tonight before increasing again Monday

-High risk for low level wind shear through Monday morning with
period risks from through Tuesday evening

-A localized stratus surge along Cape Mendocino and southward will
create potential IFR to LIFR conditions along the coast while VFR
conditions prevail elsewhere


Northerly winds are beginning to ease some this evening after a day
of strong speeds and gusts. Winds will remain stronger out at CEC
overnight. NE winds up to 40 kts aloft from 1500 to 2000 ft AGL will
continue to create a high risk for low level wind shear through
Monday morning. The threat will generally dissipate thereafter as
northerly winds increase at the surface again and wind direction is
more unidirectional aloft. There will be periods of ENE winds aloft
up to 35 kts through Tuesday evening.

Flight categories will remain VFR, but there is growing evidence
weakness in the northerlies and a southerly return eddy will guide
shallow stratus upward along the Mendocino and Southern Humboldt
coastline on Monday, and linger through Monday night and likely
longer, at least into Tuesday. HREF probabilities for ceilings less
than 500 ft increase to over 60% Monday evening over the immediate
coast in the described locations, including for Shelter Cove and
Fort Bragg. JJW


&&

.MARINE...
-Exceptionally strong north winds are verifying and forecast to
continue Monday with gusts 40 to 50 kt

-Extremely steep and hazardous seas over 20 ft are verified on the
buoys and will only slowly begin to ease later Monday.

-Mariners should remain in port and alter plans until calmer
conditions develop. Very strong winds and very large waves could
capsize vessels.

A very tight pressure gradient remains between a strong high and an
interior low is causing these abnormally strong northerly winds.
Though the gradient will ease some as the low drift south, strong
northerlies will continue through much of this week.

Full gales with storm force gusts are forecast to continue Monday
and Tuesday, especially in the outer waters. Gales are probable for
much of next week with highest chances in the outer northern waters
and downwind of Pt St George and local areas downwind of Cape
Mendocino.

Steep northerly waves expected to propagate into the northern inner
and southern waters into early next week. A hazardous Seas Warning
has been issued for Z450 & Z475 in accordance. This long duration of
exceptionally strong northerlies and large steep waves is forecast
to ease late this week when gale conditions become more isolated in
the northern waters.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...There is a slight fire concern in interior regions
of Northwest California through this week. On Monday, there is a
period in the afternoon where winds have a chance to remain
elevated over interior areas. For interior Del Norte County, min
RH values are forecast to be mostly 25 to 35 percent, but gusts
from 15 to 25 mph could still be likely. For areas of eastern
Trinity, NE Mendocino, and eastern Lake, min RHs are expected to
be mostly from 15 to 20 percent; however, gusts are more likely to
be around 20 mph. Wind gusts will generally diminish throughout
the week as a ridge settles in over the area, maintaining dry
conditions for inland areas.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ450-455.

     Hazardous Seas Warning from 9 AM Monday to 3 PM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ450-475.

     Storm Warning until 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ470-475.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM Monday to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for
     PZZ470.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png