606
FXUS66 KLOX 201823
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1123 AM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...20/219 AM.

A cooling trend will continue through Saturday as low pressure
develops along the West Coast, along with increasing night
through morning low clouds and fog. Gusty northerly winds are
expected across southern Santa Barbara County, through the
Interstate 5 Corridor and for other interior areas for the next
several nights. A warming trend for inland areas is expected to
begin Sunday but below normal temperatures are expected to
continue into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...20/1108 AM.

***UPDATE***

Main update for this morning`s forecast package was focused on the
winds. Expanded wind advisories into interior Santa Barbara (SBA)
and San Luis Obispo (SLO) counties, as well as the interior
mountains of Ventura and L.A. Counties for today through Saturday
night. Converted the existing High Wind Watch into a High Wind
Warning for the Southwestern SBA coast and Western Santa Ynez
Range for this evening and tonight. Additionally, added a High
Wind Warning for the Western Antelope Valley Foothills, I-5
Corridor, interior Ventura County Mountains, interior SBA
Mountains, and the eastern Santa Ynez Range for Saturday
afternoon through night. Wind gusts across the advisories will be
in the 35 to 55 mph range, except where there is a High Wind
Warning, where gusts to 65 mph will be possible.

Please see the NPWLOX for more/exact details.

Otherwise, forecast is in shape and no other updates were needed.

***From Previous Discussion***

Main focus through Saturday remains the winds across southern
Santa Barbara County, but gusty winds also expected in other parts
of the mountains and interior areas. Winds gusted to just under
60 mph last evening and even stronger winds are expected Friday
night which should be the peak of this latest stretch of
Sundowners. Latest hi res model guidance shows widespread gusts of
40-55 mph across the front country and Santa Ynez Range as far
east and Refugio Friday evening, but still gusty through Goleta
and the city of Santa Barbara as well. Models show decreasing
northerly gradients Saturday but increasing winds aloft,
particularly from 850-700mb. This could impact some of the higher
portions of the Transverse range. Gusty winds are also expected
across the I5 corridor region and the Antelope Valley the next
couple days.

Outside of those areas, no significant weather issues the next
several days. The cooling trend that began Thursday for areas away
from the immediate coast will continue through Saturday as a
trough deepens along the West Coast. Coastal areas won`t notice
much difference but inland areas will be around 3 degrees cooler
Friday and 4-8 degrees cooler Saturday. The marine layer will
deepen with the cooling aloft and forecast soundings show it could
be around 2500 feet by Saturday in the LA Basin. However, latest hi
res models are indicating stratus coverage may remain mostly just
over LA County, possibly a response to the strong northerly winds
to the west.

A warming trend is expected Sunday, again mainly just for inland
areas as onshore flow and winds aloft weaken, allowing warmer air
from southeast CA to shift west. Highs expected to rise 5-10
degrees most inland areas, but at most just 1-3 degrees of warming
near the coast. Despite the warm up, temperatures will still be
3-6 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...20/301 AM.

After the big jump in temperatures Sunday, just very minor day to
day adjustments through mid week. Models are not indicating any
significant winds other than the typical afternoon/evening winds
for the AV. Highs expected to remain a few degrees below normal.
With decreasing winds aloft and less mixing and still moderate to
strong onshore flow it`s likely the marine layer coverage will
increase rapidly and spread into more of the the coastal valleys
as well.

&&

.AVIATION...20/1822Z.

At 1753Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2800 feet deep with an
inversion top at 4900 feet with a temperature of 21 Celsius.

Moderate confidence in flight category forecast and timing.

At KSBA, high chance of either LLWS 20-30 knots or north gusts
surfacing 20-30 knots Friday night.

Reduced vis from BLDU possible 21-06Z at KSMX KPMD KWJF. KWJF has
highest risk, with a low but present chance of LIFR/IFR.

There is a 30% chance of MVFR at KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, and KVNY after
09Z Sat, with a 30% chance of no cigs at KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes
could be off by +/- 3 hours, with a 30% chance of remaining VFR
through the period (after clearing this afternoon). Southeast
winds likely 12Z-18Z Sat, with a 20% chance of any east wind
component reaching 8 knots.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes
could be off by +/- 3 hours. High confidence in slightly stronger
than normal onshore winds in the afternoon. There is a 30% chance
of MVFR conds after 09Z Sat.

&&

.MARINE...20/821 AM.

***HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY***

High confidence in prolonged and strong Gale Force northwest
winds beyond 20 miles from shore through Saturday night, strongest
this afternoon through Saturday evening. Moderate confidence in
gusts of 30 to 35 knots impacting the nearshore Central Coast
waters and western Santa Barbara Channel each afternoon and
evening during this stretch. All waters will see building and
hazardously steep short period seas. While winds will likely not
reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA) everywhere, a SCA is in effect
for all areas not in the Gale Warning due the combination of
widespread steep seas and the potential for widespread gusts.
Small craft should stay in safe harbor, especially in the
afternoon and evening hours.

High confidence in lowering winds and subsiding seas for the first
half of next week, with abnormally large high tides each evening.
SCA winds are still likely for the waters beyond 20 miles for
shore, which is typical for this time of the year.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 340-341-346-347. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 342-343-379. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT
      Sunday for zone 345. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT
      this evening for zone 348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 4 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 AM
      PDT Saturday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory now in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM
      PDT Saturday for zones 350-356. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PDT
      Saturday for zones 352-353-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect from 3 PM Saturday to 5 AM PDT
      Sunday for zones 352-353-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory now in effect until 3 PM PDT Saturday for zones
      378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory now in effect until 9 PM PDT Saturday for zones
      382-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT
      Saturday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Lund
AVIATION...Lund/Kittell
MARINE...RK/Lund
SYNOPSIS...MW/Sirard/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox