622
FXUS66 KLOX 141507
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
807 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...14/218 AM.

Increasing high pressure aloft will bring warming temperatures to
most areas today and Sunday. The warmest temperatures will occur
across the interior away from the cooling effects of the marine
layer. Gusty northerly winds will develop Sunday evening through
early next week across southern Santa Barbara County and through
the Interstate 5 Corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...14/807 AM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate stratus/fog
across the coastal plain and valleys with clear skies elsewhere.
Current sounding data indicates marine inversion ranging in depth
from 800 feet north of Point Conception to around 2100 feet across
the LAX Basin. No significant winds are currently observed.

Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, rather benign
conditions are expected. Current stratus/fog should dissipate
across many areas by the afternoon, but could linger along the
Ventura/LA beaches. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies will prevail
through the day. Morning TEMP STUDY data indicates most areas
should be a couple degrees warmer today with weaker onshore
pressure gradients, bit more shallow inversion and slightly
warmer boundary layer. As for winds, typical gusty onshore winds
will develop across interior sections with LAX-DAG gradients
topping out around 7.5 mb. However, the northerly gradients
(SBA-SMX) look to increase this afternoon/evening, so some gusty
Sundowners will develop.

Forecast-wise, the current forecast looks to have good handle on
the immediate short term. So, no significant updates are expected.
For the afternoon forecast suite, main issue will be the expected
strength of the Sundowners both tonight and for the next couple of
nights.

***From Previous Discussion***

The marine layer is drastically reduced north of Pt Conception
with all of the waters clear and the only low clouds confined to
western SBA county. South of Pt Conception a 1400 ft marine layer
and onshore flow have brought low clouds to the csts and most of
the vlys. The offshore trends should bring faster and more
complete clearing today. The faster clearing marine layer,
offshore trends and slightly higher hgts will result in 2 to 4
degrees of warming for areas south of Pt Conception while areas
north will see little change.

Breezy Sundowner winds will ramp up tonight and will come close to
advisory levels across the western SBA county south coast. These
winds will keep the south coast cloud free as well. Elsewhere
there will be less low clouds, esp in the vlys, as building high
pressure smooshes the marine layer to under 1000 ft and the
offshore trends continue.

Sunday will be the warmest day as well as the sunniest. Hgts peak
near 591 dam and the onshore push to the east will be the weakest.
Actual offshore flow will develop from the north. Most areas will
warm 3 to 6 degrees. The big exception will be the SBA south coast
where better N to S offshore flow will bring downslope warming and
a 12 to 15 degree bump up in temps. The lesser exception will be
the Central Coast where temps will not change much. Highs across
the Antelope Vly will range from 101 to 103 degrees while the vlys
will come in with readings in the 90s. These temps will be close
to advisory levels but just under.

Sundowner winds will peak Sunday night. Gusts of 35 to 55 mph
will be common from Gaviota to the San Marcos Pass. Isolated
gusts near 60 mph are possible near Gaviota/Refugio. Wind
advisories are almost a certainty during this time.

A little trof will ripple through the state on Monday. It will
lower hgts and increase the onshore flow. There will be a little
more low clouds in the morning. Max temps will dip 1 to 3 degrees,
but most areas will remain 4 to 8 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...14/320 AM.

More cooling on tap for Tuesday, esp for the SBA south coast
where the northerly offshore flow will shut off. Most max temps,
with the exception of the Central Coast, will remain above normal.

A little ridge will bring warming to most of the area Wednesday
except for the LA/VTA vlys where a stronger sea breeze will bring
a few degrees of cooling.

Troffing is on tap for next Thu and Fri. Onshore flow to the east
will also ramp up to between 8 and 9 mb. Look for a return of the
marine layer stratus to the csts and vlys. Clearing will be slow
with many beaches likely remaining cloudy all day. Max temps will
fall each day and many areas will see below normal max temps. The
Antelope Vly will remain above normal however due to down sloping
westerly winds. The strong onshore flow will also bring gusty
winds to the mtns and the western Antelope Vly.

&&

.AVIATION...14/1116Z.

At 0824Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was based at 1600 feet.
The top of the inversion was 3700 feet with a temperature of 23 C.

High confidence in 12Z TAFs for KPRB, KWJF and KPMD.

Moderate confidence in remaining 12Z TAFs. There is a 20% chance
of LIFR/VLIFR conds at KSBP through 15Z Sat. Timing of cig/vsby
restrictions could be off +/- 2 hours and cig hgts by +/- 200 ft.
Lowest confidence in cigs returning tonight.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Arrival of VFR conds could
be off +/- 2 hours. Return of low clouds could be as late as 06Z
with a 30% chance of ~BKN006 conds. No significant east wind
component is expected through forecast period.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Departure of cigs could be
off +/- 1 hour.

&&

.MARINE...14/758 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Through Wednesday, high confidence in Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level winds with seas hovering near SCA levels. On
Monday and Tuesday, there is a 40-60% chance of widespread Gale
force winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in
current forecast. Through Wednesday, SCA level winds are expected,
mainly during the the afternoon and evening hours, with lighter
winds during each late night to morning period. There is a 30%
chance of Gale force winds Monday and Monday night.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence
in current forecast. High confidence in winds and seas remaining
below SCA levels for a majority of the southern Inner Waters
through Wednesday, except for the western half of the Santa
Barbara Channel where there will be an increasing chance of SCA
level winds through the period during the afternoon and evening
hours. For Sunday afternoon through Wednesday, there is a 60-80%
chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa
Barbara Channel (with a 30% chance of Gale force winds Monday and
Monday night), but winds are generally expected to remain below
SCA levels elsewhere across the southern Inner Waters.

&&

.BEACHES...14/321 AM.

A long period south swell will bring elevated surf conditions up
to 5-6 feet along south-facing portions of the LA/VTA coastline
through the weekend. There will be a high risk for hazardous rip
currents - thus be sure to swim near an occupied lifeguard tower.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Sunday night
      for zones 354-362-366-367. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke/Thompson
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black/Lewis
BEACHES...Black
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox