990 FXUS66 KMTR 261157 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 457 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 227 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Seasonal temperatures with night and morning stratus will continue into next week. A weak upper-level trough could bring the chance for some unsettled weather late weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 227 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Another June Gloom day on tap with temperatures generally near seasonal normals. The marine layer is currently being observed at 1,100 feet on the Fort Ord profiler with satellite showing stratus along the Pacific Coast, through the Golden Gate Gap, and down the Northern Salinas Valley. Expect stratus to retreat towards the coast by late-morning with some mist/drizzle possible until then. Your weather nugget of the day is that the 00Z 06/26/2025 weather balloon recorded a precipitable water value of 0.42 inches, that is below the 10th percentile (0.48 inches) for the day. A Coastal Flood Advisory (the last one of this astronomical high tide sequence) is in effect from 11PM Thursday through 2AM Friday for Bayshore locations of the San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay for minor coastal flooding during nocturnal high tide. Known impacts occur in Bayside Marin County where coastal locations next to Richardson Bay such as Sausalito, Tam Valley, Manzanita, the Sausalito-Mill Valley Bike Path, and the Manzanita Park N Ride experience localized flooding. As always, do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 227 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Typical June Gloom/No Sky July long term forecast on tap with one caveat... Global ensemble clusters are in agreement of an upper-level shortwave trough making its way into our area late weekend into early next week. All three deterministic models (Canadian, ECMWF, and GFS) show a negatively-tilted 582 dam upper-level cutoff low off our coast at 12Z (5AM) Monday. While that may sound exciting, as of now there`s no mentionable precipitation or thunderstorm chances. Precipitable water values are forecast to increase, but point model soundings show 0 CAPE, so instability seems to be the missing ingredient from the three ingredients method (lift, instability, moisture). As is typical with cutoff lows, they are notoriously difficult to forecast due to their lack of jet stream support. Add in an active Eastern Pacific Basin and the forecast becomes even more complex - which is what we are dealing with! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 437 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025 A compressed marine layer is helping to limit widespread coverage of low marine stratus, currently lingering in the vicinity of the Bay Area terminals. Expect the stratus to begin clearing by late morning with a return to IFR/MVFR ceilings later tonight into Friday morning. Vicinity of SFO...Bay Area terminals will continue to hover between IFR/MVFR ceilings with VFR expected by late this morning with occasional light drizzle. Gusty onshore winds will settle in this afternoon before easing after sunset. IFR ceilings are expected to fill back in later this evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Low stratus with patchy fog/drizzle will persist through the late morning under a compressed marine layer. Stratus and fog/drizzle is expected to begin to mix out by late this morning into early afternoon. Breezy to gusty onshore winds can be expected this afternoon and early evening, with a return of the marine layer expected in the early evening when the winds begin to ease. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 437 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes with near-gale force gusts will continue through Friday. Gale force gusts can be expected near the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur this afternoon and evening. Moderate to rough seas will also continue through tomorrow, with northwesterly winds easing over the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Friday for CAZ006-506-508. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea