000
FXUS65 KVEF 140952
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
252 AM PDT Mon Apr 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Today through midweek, expect similar temperatures as
Sunday. Late-week, a dynamic weather system moves into the region,
which will increase chances of precipitation, gusty winds, and will
cool off temperatures substantially.
&&


.SHORT TERM...Today and Tuesday.

Through the day today, an upper-level low in the southeastern
Pacific will continue to strengthen. As it does so, a shortwave will
ride counter-clockwise around it, pushing into the Desert Southwest
this evening. Moisture content associated with this shortwave is
modest, with forecast PWATs between 100 and 140% of normal (normal
PWAT this time of year is around 0.30"). Coupled with sub-optimal
PWATs for measurable precipitation, forecast HRRR soundings show a
pronounced inverted-V signature, indicating very dry low-levels. As
such, not expecting widespread measurable precipitation, but this
evening between about 7pm and 12am, a swath of sprinkles will push
northward through the forecast area. Cannot rule out the occasional
bolt of lightning, which would result in locally higher rain rates
as well as erratic, gusty winds from its direction, but overall, not
expecting impacts aside from a ruined car wash.

Otherwise, heights over the region will remain elevated across the
Desert Southwest through mid-week, so temperatures will continue to
range 7 to 10 degrees above seasonal normals, with widespread
"Minor" Heat Risk.


.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday.

A notable pattern change arrives mid/late week as two systems
phase together over our area. On Wednesday, ensemble guidance is
in fairly good agreement with a shortwave moving south out of
western Canada and a cutoff low moving onshore near Point
Conception. As anomalous low-level moisture pools between the two
systems, scattered showers and isolated storms are expected to
develop across the Great Basin and Sierra on Wednesday. On
Thursday and Friday, guidance merges the systems together, forming
a single, closed low over the Great Basin and Mojave Desert. With
lingering low-level moisture and cold air aloft, precipitation
chances continue and spread southward across most of the area.
Latest NBM has PoPs ranging anywhere from 30-50%, with the higher
probabilities across the southern Great Basin. Thunderstorms will
certainly be possible (10-30% chances) with this activity as well.
The cold air aloft will also foster lower snow levels,
particularly if the low moves directly overhead. This should
result in late-season snow accumulations to the Sierra and Spring
Mountains, where there is a ~50% chance of 4"+.

Outside of the precipitation potential, the other main features of
the late-week systems are the gusty winds and cooler temperatures.
Winds are expected to be strongest on Wednesday and Thursday as the
systems approach and begin to phase. Best chances (40-60%) of wind
impacts are across western San Bernardino County, while the rest
of the area ranges from 10-30%. As guidance moves the low overhead
on Friday, winds weaken. This is also when temperatures will be
their coldest. Forecast highs across the area go from 75-90
degrees on Wednesday to 55-75 degrees on Friday, some 10-15
degrees below-normal.

Over the weekend, ensemble guidance has the low advancing eastward,
pushing out of our area. As a result, precipitation chances wane
while temperatures moderate toward seasonal values.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Light
south or southwest winds expected through around 8-9z before
uncertainty in a possible wind shift arrives. Winds may shift to the
northeast at 6-9 knots or remain light and southerly through the
remainder of the early morning hours. By daybreak, northeasterly
winds will overspread the valley if they haven`t already with a few
gusts to around 18 knots possible. Winds will ease through the day
and shift back to the south by Monday evening with increasing mid
and high level clouds with CIGS descending to around 15kft AGL.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Tonight, the
strongest northerly gusts of 15 to 25 knots are expected in the
favored terrain areas from southern Lincoln County through the
Laughlin/Bullhead City area. Winds are expected to become easterly
to southeasterly over much of the region on Monday, with only
spotty gusts over 20 knots. Mid level clouds will increase from
south to north late in the afternoon, with spotty virga and gusty
winds.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soulat
LONG TERM...Woods
AVIATION...Outler

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