848
FXUS66 KMTR 050011
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
511 PM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1231 PM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Fair weather continues over the next several days with cloudy
mornings and clear afternoons. Temperatures around seasonal
normals with a slight warming trend into next work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1231 PM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Very typical seasonable set up going on right now across the
region. One notable aspect going on today is a weak surface low
in response to a subtle upper-level shortwave trough. That has
resulted in temps a few degrees cooler than yesterday, and will
likely reinforce some marine stratus and onshore flow for areas
south of the SF Bay Thursday morning. Otherwise, Thursday looks
like another beautiful day to get outside. Temps closely mirroring
that of today with the marine layer deepening slightly, cooling
off the coast by a couple of degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1231 PM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Subtle warming trend on tap into the weekend with an interesting
twist. Guidance depicts a subtle cutoff low that meanders off the
CA coast into the weekend. Amid a strong ridge that will heat up
most of the west, this cutoff low will likely again reinforce
onshore flow and keep the marine layer intact. Thus, our temps
appear to be moderated by this feature and may actually result in
very little noticeable change in the weather through the weekend
for most folks. Some hints at larger scale troughing after the end
of the extended period, which would result in a more noticeable
pattern change. Details on that will be more clear in the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 PM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Currently VFR with breezy northwest winds observed at most sites. A
fairly substantial stratus bank is just offshore with CIGs expected
to build in overnight. The marine layer looks to compress to between
500 to 1000 ft overnight which will result in IFR to MVFR CIGs
across portions of the Bay Area. Moderate confidence that LIFR-IFR
CIGs will develop along the coastline impacting HAF, MRY, and SNS.
Fog becomes more likely after 12Z across the North Bay Valleys
tomorrow morning which could result in LIFR conditions at least
temporarily developing there. Winds ease overnight, shifting
southerly to becoming variable at times, before moderate southwest
to northwest winds redevelop during the day.

Vicinity of SFO...Gusty northwest winds will ease overnight before
gradually shifting southerly early Friday morning. Patchy MVFR CIGs
are expected to fill into the SF Bay overnight but this is expected
to be temporary. This is a slightly more optimistic TAF with the NBM
and LAMP guidance indicating that stratus may persist through mid to
late tomorrow morning. VFR conditions return by mid to late morning
with winds shifting more southwest to westerly and strengthening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...CIGs are expected to build back in early
this evening with highest confidence in CIGs arriving between 02-03Z
with some guidance indicating an earlier arrival closer to 01Z is
possible at MRY. Moderate confidence that LIFR CIGs will effect MRY
overnight with low to moderate confidence that LIFR CIGs will impact
SNS. CIGs look to rise between 15-18Z with full clearing expected
after 18Z. Clearing will be short lived with stratus looking to
return just after the end of this TAF period. Moderate onshore winds
continue this evening before weakening overnight, becoming southerly
to variable at times. &&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1203 PM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Widespread breezy conditions are affecting the waters with some
zones seeing gusty winds causing hazardous conditions for small
craft. The northern outer waters continue to see gale conditions.
Expect winds to slowly reduce into the late week. A southerly
coastal jet will bring strong onshore winds tonight in the San
Francisco Bay and in the exposed waters across the Golden Gate.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for SF Bay N of Bay
     Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Thursday
     for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Murdock

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