106 FXUS66 KMTR 071949 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1249 PM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1246 PM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025 - Warmer temperatures return Wednesday through the weekend with patchy Moderate Heatrisk across the Bay Area and Central Coast. - Localized elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday through the weekend across portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast. - Slight risk (20-40%) of extreme heat for far interior portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast July 15th-17th. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1246 PM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025 (This evening through Tuesday) High probability for low clouds to remain at the coast today and will then penetrate inland into the coastal valleys tonight. This is as an approximately 2,000 foot marine layer remain in place across the region and is expected to deepen slightly overnight and into Tuesday morning. As such, do expect coastal drizzle in the favored spots overnight into early Tuesday. With the cut off upper level low pressure centered just west off of the Bay Area/Central Coast, expecting another cooler than normal day for Tuesday. The interior will clear out by Tuesday afternoon with mostly sunny sky conditions. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid 70s to 80s across the interior and upper 50s to 60s along the coastline (some 5 to 15 degrees below average). The cooler coastal areas is where clouds are forecast to persist though much of the day. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 203 AM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025 (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Tuesday into Wednesday, the closed low offshore will start to weaken and shift northward before gradually moving inland along the Oregon/California border. At the same time, upper level ridging over the Four Corners Region will start to compress and spread into Southern California. The center of the high pressure will be located over Southern California, Southern Nevada, and Arizona where heat products are set to go into effect for those regions later this week. The forecast is a little more uncertain for the Central Coast and Bay Area. To start things off, a warming trend is on track to begin Wednesday with most sites to see near seasonal temperatures as highs warm back into the 80s across most of the interior. While high pressure builds across Southern California Thursday and Friday, the upper level pattern shows a flatter, more zonal to slight troughing over the Bay Area. While we are expected temperatures to continue warming Thursday and Friday, the more zonal to slight troughing will help to keep temperatures slightly cooler than those to our south with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. The hottest locations continue to be the southern most portions of the Interior Central Coast which is on the edge of the center of the high pressure over southern California. Temperatures across the interior Central Coast will be in the mid 90s to low 100s Thursday and Friday. In terms of HeatRisk, pockets of moderate HeatRisk continue across urban in the Bay Area, interior North Bay Mountains, and far interior Central Coast. Remember to take breaks and drink plenty of water if participating in outdoors activities on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures cool slightly into the 80s to 90s over the weekend upper level troughing becomes slightly more distinct across Northern California. Temperatures across the interior Central Coast will remain fairly stable in the mid 90s to low 100s over the weekend as high pressure continues over Southern California. A few isolated pockets of moderate HeatRisk will continue across urban areas and the North Bay Interior Mountains but will not be widespread enough to be very impactful. Winds remain light and onshore through this weekend with locally breezier winds across mountain gaps and passes (Altamont Pass, Salinas Valley). As mentioned in the short term, both small and large fuels are drying out with warmer temperatures increasing the likelihood of further drying Wednesday into the weekend. This does result in localized elevated fire weather concerns, particularly across the higher elevations above the marine layer, Wednesday through the weekend. While winds remain fairly light and onshore, small fuels have cured and larger fuels are drying out so extreme caution is needed if participating in any outdoor activities involving sparks or flames. Remember, most wildfires are started by human activities. One less spark, one less wildfire. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1051 AM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025 The marine layer stratus is retreating back to the coast late this morning as expected. Most terminals will enjoy VFR conditions through the afternoon before coastal stratus returns this evening. With a surface low pressure offshore, the wind direction will be tricky today as the weak synoptic southerly forcing competes with the afternoon sea breeze. Overall the swirling winds will be gentle to moderate. Vicinity of SFO...The terminal cleared up around 17Z with no significant impacts expected through the afternoon. As the sea breeze develops this afternoon, the wind will shift to some variation of westerly. The exact direction is hard to pin down, and could range from SW to NW, and may even flip between the two. MVFR stratus will return this evening with a good chance for drizzle early Tuesday morning as the marine layer remains deep. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Visible satellite shows that while SNS is clearing out, MRY will take at least another hour. Both terminals will only maintain VFR conditions for a brief period before an early return of stratus tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 845 AM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025 A weak pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate southerly winds across the coastal waters with moderate seas. Winds will increase to a moderate to strong NW breeze by Wednesday, building rough seas by Thursday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea