769 FXUS65 KREV 190904 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 204 AM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Strong winds start today and continue into Friday with fire weather, recreation, travel, and aviation concerns. * Temperatures are slightly cooler today, with isolated areas of moderate HeatRisk. * Continued cool, dry pattern will continue through at least the start of next week. && .DISCUSSION... * Other than a slight 15% chance of showers and storms today for northeast CA and far northwest NV, there are not any significant changes to the latest forecast. The high pressure that gave us hot temperatures on Wednesday is moving east as an initial trough swings through the area. By Friday, the main upper low will begin to dig into northern NV. This anomalously strong, cold low pressure then continues to drop into the central Great Basin by Saturday and Sunday. This will give us several days of strong gusty winds, much cooler temperatures, and precipitation for northeast CA and northwest NV. * Strong west to southwest winds will begin to materialize by the late morning through the evening. The western NV and eastern Sierra valleys will see winds calm by Friday morning, then once again ramp up even stronger Friday afternoon and evening. Gusts have a likely chance of approaching 50-60 mph for wind prone areas along US-395 in western NV, as well as eastern Lassen and Mono counties. The leeside valleys will have likely gusts of 40-45 mph. Over the next two days, winds remain very strong (for mid-June) along the eastern Sierra mountain ridges, with gusts to near 60-80 mph. This will lead to several days of recreational impacts on lakes, as well as transportation and aviation impacts. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for today with a Wind Advisory for Friday. Please see the Fire Weather section below for fire weather concerns. * As for precipitation, today we have a slight 15% chance for storms in northeast CA and northern Washoe County where we have enough instability for storms. For Friday, a 30-60% chance for light rain exists along a line north of I-80, from Susanville through Gerlach and Pyramid Lake. Chances for thunder on Friday morning will be greatest for far northern Washoe County, but are only 5-10%. The higher elevations of the Werner Mountains in Modoc County and far northern Washoe County may see a mix of rain/snow Friday night into Saturday morning, but accumulations are unlikely. * Much cooler air will accompany this anomalously deep trough for June, with highs on Friday in the upper 70s to mid 80s for western Nevada and 50s and 60s across the Sierra. By Saturday, we cool off even further, with western Nevada falling in the 60s, while portions of the Sierra may see highs in the 40s. Temperatures will attempt to moderate for Sunday, bringing a similar set of highs as Friday, with much less wind and clearing clouds. Monday, a return to widespread 80s for western Nevada and 60s to 70s for Sierra communities. * A persistent weak trough pattern will linger into the middle of next week, keeping temperatures cool with afternoon breezes. Warming begins to return toward the end of next week, approaching our seasonal norms. Despite the trough presence, no precipitation is expected. -McKellar && .AVIATION... * Westerly winds increase today, with speeds of 15-25 kts widespread, and gusts to 35 kts. Friday winds increase more, with ridge winds approaching 65 kts. This will increase the likelihood of LLWS and mountain turbulence both days, with Friday being the more intense day. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail today. HRICH/McKellar && .FIRE WEATHER... * There are no significant changes to the current Red Flag Warning for today and Friday. Widespread wind gusts up to 45 mph for leeside valleys for today, with wind prone areas seeing up to 60 mph and ridges as gusty as 70 mph. By Friday, widespread gusts continue, increasing leeside valleys to 50 mph, wind prone areas to 65 mph and ridge gusts to 80 mph. Coupled with low relative daytime humidity ranging 5-15% and poor overnight recoveries around 20-30%. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has included our area in the elevated to critical fire conditions in the Fire Weather Outlook for today and for Friday. * Conditions on Saturday will be monitored, with the caveat being the frontal passage and how far south the associated moisture will travel. Saturday will have 3-6 hours of elevated to critical fire weather conditions for Mineral, Mono, southern Lyon and southern Alpine counties. This area may be considered for a Fire Weather Watch, but headlines may suffice if enough moisture moves over the area. HRICH/McKellar && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight PDT Friday night NVZ420-421-423-429-458. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday NVZ001>005. Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ001-003-004. CA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight PDT Friday night CAZ274-278. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday CAZ071>073. Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening CAZ073. && $$