242 FXUS66 KHNX 141211 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 411 AM PST Tue Jan 14 2025 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry conditions and above average maximum temperatures will prevail this week. 2. Widespread freezing temperatures are forecast across mainly rural areas of the San Joaquin Valley through Wednesday morning. There is up to a 98 percent probability for low temperatures of 32 degrees or below in the rural areas. A Freeze Warning remains in effect through Wednesday morning. 3. Strong northeast winds are forecast across eastern Kern County today and Tuesday. There is up to a 75 percent probability for wind gusts of 45 mph or higher at Mojave. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Mojave Desert Slopes until 10 PM Tuesday. 4. Latest CPC Outlooks give a 33 to 50 percent chance of above average temperatures and a 40 to 60 percent chance of below average precipitation. && .DISCUSSION... An upper level cutoff low pressure system developed late yesterday as the main axis of a longwave trough passed through central California. The system now resides over the eastern Pacific Ocean, roughly 450 miles off the coast of southern California. In the wake of the longwave trough, a ridge of high pressure has built in to our north, encroaching into the Pacific Northwest region. Anticyclonic flow around the ridge and cyclonic flow around the cutoff low are resulting in northeast winds aloft, which is bringing cooler air to our region this morning. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for much of the San Joaquin Valley. There is a 40 to 70 percent chance for minimum temperatures below freezing in many of the rural areas of the central valley north of Kern County, with up to a 98 percent chance northwest of Bakersfield. Widespread probabilities for Wednesday morning are 30 to 60 percent, with localized areas in Kern County up to 80 percent. Due to these probabilities, the Freeze Warning continues for tomorrow morning as well. Through today and into Wednesday, the aforementioned upper level ridge is favorable to descend southward into northern California, increasing the surface pressure gradient. The northeast winds present through today are expected to increase as a result, especially in the Kern County Desert. Ensemble output from the National Blend of Models suggests up to a 90 percent chance for wind gusts greater than 45 miles per hour in the Mojave Slopes, with a 75 percent chance near the town of Mojave. This has prompted the issuance of a Wind Advisory which remains valid for this area through 10 PM this evening. In the mid to late week period, the aforementioned cutoff low is anticipated to gradually move onshore, shifting winds aloft over central California to the southwest. This will bring an increase in afternoon temperatures into the mid 60s for the central valley, up to 10 degrees above average for this time of year. However, as the weekend approaches, a cooling trend will set up once again as a longwave trough moving through central Canada will shift winds to the northwest, continuing to propagate dry conditions over the region. Little relief from these dry conditions are expected, with the Climate Prediction Center indicating a 40 to 60 percent chance for below normal precipitation in the 6 to 10 day period valid January 19th through 23rd and a 40 to 50 percent chance in the 8 to 14 day period valid January 21st through 27th. && .AVIATION... 12z Update VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior through 00Z Wednesday. Areas of MVFR in haze are possible in the San Joaquin Valley after 00Z through 12Z Wednesday morning. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 01/13/2025 14:03 EXPIRES: 01/14/2025 23:59 On Tuesday January 14 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, and Madera Counties. Burning Discouraged in Merced and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ338. Freeze Warning until 9 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ302-305-306- 309>311-313-316. && $$ public/aviation...SM idss.............BSO weather.gov/hanford