499
FXUS66 KLOX 231117
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
417 AM PDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...23/300 AM.

Temperatures are expected turn cooler today and Tuesday then warm
up again mid to late week as high pressure returns. Night
through morning low clouds and fog are expected for many coastal
areas this week, but decreasing across the valleys. Otherwise
clear skies with mostly light winds are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...23/315 AM.

Overall a pretty quiet week of weather. Sundowner and I5 winds
have mostly come to an end for now and at least through the week.
Temperatures warmed briefly yesterday but a trough digging south
through interior California will bring a return to onshore flow
today and Tuesday that will cool temperatures at least a few
degrees, with highs in most areas 4-8 degrees below normal.

As the trough weakens and moves east Wednesday temperatures will
warm several degrees with highs back to near to slightly above
normal for the latter half of the week.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...23/321 AM.

Very little change in the weather pattern is expected through the
latter half of the week. Very minimal day to day temperatures
changes are expected with highs in the 80s to lower 90s in the
valleys and mostly 70s closer to the coast. With high pressure
aloft the marine layer should be confined to coastal areas and
possibly portions of the San Gabriel and Santa Ynez Valleys.

Slight cooling is possible over the weekend as some model
solutions indicate a weak trough will return to the West Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1116Z.

At 06Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1900 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was at 3500 ft with a temperature of 16 C.

High confidence in VFR conds prevailing at KPMD and KWJF. Moderate
confidence for KPRB with a 10-20 percent chance of at least brief
IFR conds between 13-16Z.

Moderate confidence in coastal TAFs except low confidence at KSBA.
There is a 10 percent chance that VFR conds prevail at KOXR and
KCMA and a 50 percent chance of low MVFR conds for KSBA between
14-22Z. Flight category changes may be off by 2 hours, except up
to 3 hours for return to VFR.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of
east wind component reaching 8 kts at times from 10Z to 16Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 20% chance for
brief IFR cigs from 11Z to 15Z Monday.

&&

.MARINE...23/125 AM.

For the Outer Waters, isolated Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conds
are possible this evening south of Point Conception. There are
moderate chances (30-50%) for low-end SCA winds during the
afternoon and evening hours Tuesday through Thursday, especially
around Point Conception. Seas are expected to fall well below SCA
criteria Monday and will likely remain sub SCA through at least
Friday.

For the Inner Waters, there a is a 20-30 chance for low-end SCA
winds focused Tuesday through Thursday late afternoons/evenings
along the Central Coast and western portions of the Santa Barbara
Channel.

Patchy dense fog is possible off of the Central Coast in
particular during the evening to morning hours through at least
Tuesday morning.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Munroe
MARINE...Munroe/Black/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox