084 FXUS66 KLOX 210014 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 514 PM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025 .SYNOPSIS...20/139 PM. A cooling trend will continue through Saturday as low pressure develops along the West Coast, along with increasing night through morning low clouds and fog. Gusty northerly winds are expected across southern Santa Barbara County, through the Interstate 5 Corridor and for other interior areas for the next several nights. A warming trend for inland areas is expected to begin Sunday but below normal temperatures are expected to continue into next week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...20/140 PM. A late season trough now pushing into California has put an end to the heat from earlier in the week with unseasonably strong northwest to north winds likely across the region through Saturday with widespread advisory level (gusts 30 to 50 mph) likely across the mountains and nearly all of Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties. Warning level gusts up to 65 mph are likely late this afternoon through tonight for southwest Santa Barbara County (especially from Gaviota to Refugio) and Saturday afternoon into the night for the interior mountains of Santa Barbara County (with a 50 percent chance of reaching the hills above Montecito), Ventura County, and mountains and Antelope Valley foothills of Los Angeles County, focused near the I-5 corridor in the northwest portion of the county. Isolated power outages, downed trees, and an increased risk for large life threatening wildfires will be possible with the strong and potentially damaging winds. Widespread Wind Advisories and more focused High Wind Warnings are in place for the areas with the highest confidence in wind impacts. Much weaker winds are anticipated into Sunday for most areas in Breezy northwest to onshore wind gusts of 20 to 40 mph. The marine layer will likely hang onto low clouds and fog especially for Los Angeles County through Saturday, likely rapidly expanding in coverage Sunday into Monday behind the high wind event. Patchy drizzle is possible in Los Angeles County tonight into Saturday morning in particular and especially in the foothills on the east end of the county. Below normal temperatures are expected, especially Saturday with widespread highs only in the 70s to near 80. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...20/140 PM. Weak troughing will and near to below normal temperatures likely remain in place through at least Tuesday with seasonably weak onshore winds and a fairly deep marine layer with night to morning low clouds and fog. A gradual warm up and retreat of the marine layer and associated cooling impact may occur later in the week as a ridge of high pressure attempts to build into the region. && .AVIATION...21/0011Z. At 2209Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2400 feet deep with an inversion top at 4100 feet with a temperature of 19 Celsius. Overall, moderate confidence in 00Z TAF Package. Reduced visibility with a moderate to high chance of MVFR conditions at times from BLDU at KSMX, KPMD, and KWJF. Timing of flight cat restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and minimums off by one. There is a 30% chance cigs do not arrive at KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, and KVNY. At SBA, there is a 20% chance of LLWS and a moderate chance of UDDF Friday night. Also, there is a moderate chance of intermittent north gusts of 15-25 kts reaching the terminal. KLAX...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. Southeast winds likely 08Z-17Z Sat, with a 60% chance of any east wind component reaching 8 knots. KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. There is a 30% chance cigs do not arrive at airfield. && .MARINE...20/110 PM. ***HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY*** High confidence in prolonged and strong Gale Force northwest winds beyond 20 miles from shore through Saturday night, strongest this afternoon through Saturday evening. Moderate confidence in gusts of 30 to 35 knots impacting the nearshore Central Coast waters and western Santa Barbara Channel each afternoon and evening during this stretch. All waters will see building and hazardously steep short period seas. While winds will likely not reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA) everywhere, a SCA is in effect for all areas not in the Gale Warning due the combination of widespread steep seas and the potential for widespread gusts. Small craft should stay in safe harbor, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. High confidence in lowering winds and subsiding seas for the first half of next week, with abnormally large high tides each evening. SCA winds are still likely for the waters beyond 20 miles for shore, which is typical for this time of the year. && .FIRE WEATHER...20/349 PM. An unseasonably strong upper level trough of low pressure will move through the region through Saturday night. West to northwest winds will continue to increase this afternoon and evening brining widespread elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions across the interior and southern Santa Barbara County. The winds are expected to further increase in coverage and speed Saturday afternoon into evening, when damaging wind gusts of 50 to 65 mph will likely become more widespread across the interior, mainly focused across the I-5 corridor, Ventura County mountains, Santa Barbara County interior mountains, and Antelope Valley including the western foothills. This damaging wind threat combined with low humidities in the 10 to 25 percent range will likely bring critical fire weather conditions to these areas, resulting in the issuance of the Red Flag Warning from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. A Fire Weather Watch has also been issued for this time frame for the eastern Santa Ynez Range where there is the potential for strong/damaging winds to coincide with low humidities. Areas in a Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch will have the highest risk for rapid fire spread and extreme fire behavior, with the threat of long range spotting. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 340-341-346-347. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 342-343-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zone 345. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 348. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory now in effect until 9 PM PDT Saturday for zones 350-356-382-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Saturday for zones 352-353-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect from 3 PM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Sunday for zones 352-353-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory now in effect until 3 PM PDT Saturday for zones 378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Munroe AVIATION...Black MARINE...RK/Lund FIRE...Gomberg SYNOPSIS...MW/Sirard/Ciliberti weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox