668
FXUS66 KSGX 141605
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
905 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Above average temperatures this weekend with heat peaking on Sunday.
A slow cooling is expected through most of the week with highs
generally 5 degrees above average through Wednesday and closer to
normal heading into the end of the week. Night and morning low
clouds and fog can be expected each day along the coast and will
reach into portions of the valleys at times. Slight increase in
westerly winds expected over the mountains and into the deserts
early in the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Overnight, low clouds had made it into portions of the Inland
Empire. Visible satellite at 9 AM was showing low clouds starting to
clear from inland areas. Partial and intermittent clearing most
likely at the beaches this afternoon. Low clouds and fog are
expected to remain persistent each night and morning for the coast
into early next week, with high resolution model guidance indicating
better chances of widespread clearing in the afternoons (yes, even
for the coast) Sunday and Monday. The marine layer is expected to
deepen for the middle to end of next week as a more amplified trough
of low pressure approaches the West Coast.

Building high pressure from the south will bring an increase in high
temperatures, which will peak on Sunday. Highs today will be 3 to 10
degrees warmer than yesterday, with the most noticeable warming for
the western valleys. By Sunday, high temperatures will be around 5
degrees above average near the coast and 10 degrees above average
for inland locations. The High Desert is likely (80-100% chance) to
see high temperatures of 100 degrees or more by Sunday, while the
lower deserts have similar chances of 110 degrees or more. HeatRisk
in the inland valleys, mountain foothills, and deserts will be
Moderate, with locally high HeatRisk in the low deserts on Sunday.
NBM chance for the low desert to exceed 115 degrees on Sunday is 15
percent or less. West of the mountains, there is a 50 to 80 percent
chance parts of the Inland Empire will exceed 100 degrees and a 20
percent chance parts of eastern San Diego County valleys will exceed
100 degrees Sunday. Portions of inland Orange County (east of
Interstate 5) have a 30 to 50 percent chance of temperatures
exceeding 90 degrees.

A low pressure system moving inland through California early in the
week will strengthen onshore flow for Monday and Tuesday. This will
result in a slight increase in westerly winds over the mountains and
into the deserts. The weak low will also have some impact on
lowering high temperatures. Temperatures Monday are expected to be
similar to a degree or two cooler than Sunday. Further cooling is
expected into Tuesday, with high temperatures around 5 degrees above
average. Wednesday may see a few degrees of warming away from the
coast as the ridge rebounds in the wake of the passing trough. Any
increase in temperatures will be short lived as another upper level
trough begins to deepen and move west across the Pacific Northwest
for the end of the week. While there are some differences in the
timing of the progression of this trough, the general consensus is
for cooling the remainder of the week, with these differences
determining just how much cooling will occur.

&&

.AVIATION...
141525Z....Coast/Valleys...Low clouds based around 900-1300 ft MSL
with tops to 2300 ft MSL are filled in through 15 miles inland, with
vis locally reduced 0-5 SM along higher coastal terrain and for some
inland valleys. Clearing continues through 16Z this morning for
inland areas and 17-19Z for the coasts. SCT to occasionally BKN
clouds may linger along the beaches and immediate coasts through the
afternoon.
Low clouds redevelop and push back ashore after 03Z Sunday. Bases
will likely be lower, closer to 600-1000 ft MSL with about 10-15
miles of inland extent. Clouds clear again 16-18Z Sun.

Otherwise...FEW high clouds and unrestricted VIS prevails
through Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
A 3 foot southerly (190 degrees) swell at 19 seconds arrives this
afternoon. This will lead to elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet by late
this evening/overnight, primarily for Orange County and northern San
Diego County beaches. A Beach Hazard Statement has been issued for
this afternoon through late Sunday evening. The swell`s period
gradually shortens to 17 seconds by Sunday, and the overall swell
and surf heights will wane late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for Orange County
     Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CSP