245 FXUS65 KVEF 240804 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 104 AM PDT Tue Jun 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Other than a low chance for showers on the Sierra crest this afternoon, dry conditions are likely through the week. * Haze is possible today and Tuesday as south winds push elevated smoke in from fires in Baja California. * Below-normal temperatures are expected through Wednesday before rising to near normal and then above normal later in the week. && .DISCUSSION...through Monday. Midnight satellite loop showed low pressure centered over south central California moving slowly east. On the front side of this low, a jet streak was pushing northward from southern California into east central Nevada. This was helping to drive elevated convection over Nye and Lincoln counties. No lightning had been detected, but two wind gusts of 60 and 77 mph had been recorded on the NNSS, presumably from "virga bombs" evaporating in the dry subcloud air. By sunrise, the jet streak should no longer be in a favorable position to generate lift over our CWA, and the low will slowly fill and drift east through the day. Afternoon convection, if any, should be limited to the Sierra Nevada where orographic lift will be maximized. The other feature of interest will be smoke and haze from distant wildfires. Wednesday through Sunday should be relatively quiet over our area, with breezy afternoons and a warming trend pushing temperatures above normal as heights rise overhead. At this time, there are only tiny splotches of Major HeatRisk expected on Sunday. This very low coverage is probably more due to the time of year, as we are getting within a few degrees of the climatologically hottest time of the year, so it is more difficult to have unseasonably hot conditions. That said, even temperatures a few degrees above average can be dangerous for those with poor heat tolerance or without access to air conditioning. Monday is more uncertain, as there is good model agreement on the existence of low pressure nearing the California coast, but not such good agreement on whether this low will be able to tap into moist monsoon flow which should be established over New Mexico and perhaps Arizona. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package... South-southeasterly winds stuck around longer than originally anticipated this evening, but the direction should completely shift from the southwest between 06 and 07Z with sustained speeds less than 10 kts and no gusts. Winds Tuesday will be similar to today, but to a lesser magnitude... south-southeasterly through the afternoon with gusts around 15 kts at times, ultimately falling off after sunset. Like today, south-southeasterly winds could hang around as late as 06Z before the nocturnal switch from the southwest. Haze will be possible at times, with occasional minor drops in surface-based visibility Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, expect slantwise visibility reductions through the TAF period due to haze from nearby wildfires. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and southeastern California...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Winds on Tuesday will be similar to today, with breezy south-southwest winds impacting Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley TAF sites in the afternoon with gusts around 15 kts at times. KDAG will gust from the west this evening before speeds drop below 10 kts overnight. Breezy west winds return late Tuesday afternoon. KBIH will be largely light and diurnal. Slantwise visibility reductions possible through the TAF period at all TAF sites due to haze from nearby wildfires. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Morgan AVIATION...Soulat For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter