214 FXUS66 KLOX 071120 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 420 AM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS...07/244 AM. Temperatures today will be either below or near normal, followed by a noticeable warming trend starting Tuesday. The heat spell will peak on Wednesday and Thursday, with many areas 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Some cooling is expected by the weekend, followed by another warming trend early next week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...07/336 AM. Today will be one last day of either below or near normal temperatures before a noticeable warming trend starts on Tuesday. The cooling impact of the upper low off the coast of NorCal will diminish starting Tuesday, as high pressure currently centered over Arizona and New Mexico strengthens and noses into the SoCal region. Warming will occur across the entire region, but will be the most dramatic away from the beaches and coastal plains, where moderate onshore flow will dampen some of the heat. This heat spell will peak on Wednesday and Thursday, with many areas around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Temperatures are most likely to peak at 95-103 degrees for inland valleys, 100-105 across the deserts, and near 90 for inland coastal areas including Downtown LA. The chances for widespread highs 10-15+ degrees above normal (that would warrant extensive Heat Advisories/Warnings) has decreased, thus confidence has increased for the current temperature forecast. Moderate HeatRisk is expected for much of LA County (except for the beaches), meaning that heat will affect sensitive individuals such as outdoor workers or those without air conditioning or adequate hydration. Some interior areas across the counties north of LA will also see Moderate HeatRisk. At this point, there is a chance for some Heat Advisories to be issued, though they would be rather borderline. The hot spell will also bring fire weather concerns across all non- coastal areas, as well as southwest Santa Santa Barbara County. Dry and hot conditions will combine with some areas of gusty winds, including onshore winds across the interior and northerly Sundowner winds for SW Santa Barbara County. There is a brief window of southeasterly upper level flow for the region that may bring some monsoonal mositure and PWATS of 1+ inch late Tuesday through Wednesday, thus there is around a 5 percent chance of thunderstorms focused over the Antelope Valley and San Gabriel mountains. .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...07/307 AM. Thursday`s temperatures will be similar to Wednesday, if not slightly warmer by 1 to 3 degrees. Friday the high pressure ridge will gradually weaken in strength, though it is likely to remain over the region through the weekend, and very strong onshore surface pressure gradients will return, leading to several degrees of cooling. Most areas will see HeatRisk dropping to the Minor category Friday through the weekend with Temperatures reaching below normal by Saturday. The one exception will be some interior areas such as the Antelope Valley, the western San Fernando Valley, and the Cuyama Valley, that will remain well above normal with Moderate HeatRisk. There is a developing signal for monsoon moisture moving into the area by around the 16th of the month. && .AVIATION...07/1118Z. At 1057Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 1800 ft deep. The top of the inversion was around 4500 feet with a temperature of 22 C. High confidence in VFR TAFs for KWJF and KPMD. Low confidence in TAF for KPRB through 16Z. There is a 40% chance of no low clouds. Otherwise, high confidence in VFR conditions. Low confidence in TAFs for KBUR and KVNY through 17Z, then high confidence thereafter. There is a 40% chance for no low clouds this morning. LIFR conds are possible (40% chance). High confidence in remaining TAFs through 02Z, then low confidence thereafter. At KSBP and KSMX, LIFR conds may briefly develop this morning. For tonight, moderate confidence in return of cigs to KSBP and KSMX, but low confidence in minimum flight cat. Return time may be off +/- 2 hours and minimum flight cat may be off by one cat. There is a chance for no low clouds at KSBP (30%) and KSMX (20%). Low confidence in return of cigs at sites south of Point Conception. There is a 20-40% chance for return of cigs 06Z-12Z, high chances for LA County sites. KLAX...High confidence in TAF through 05Z, then low confidence thereafter. Cigs may bounce between 008-012 through 16Z. Departure of CIGs may be off +/- 90 mins. There is a 40% chance for no cigs tonight. Low confidence in cig height if they arrive. There is a 40% chance for cigs 003-004 if they arrive. No significant east wind component expected. KBUR...Low confidence in TAF through 17Z, then high confidence thereafter. There is a 40% chance for no low clouds this morning, with low confidence in minimum flight cat. There is a 40% chance for 002-004 cigs this morning. && .MARINE...07/201 AM. Local Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds may linger in portions of the Outer Waters south of Point Concpetion into the early morning. Moderate confidence in more widespread SCA level winds across the aforementioned area this afternoon and evening, and higher confidence Tuesday. High confidence in SCA level winds expanding across the rest of the Outer Waters and moderate confidence for the Inner Waters along the Central Coast Wednesday through Thursday. Seas are likely to remain below SCA thresholds through the period. Inside the southern California bight, moderate confidence in SCA level winds in the western and southern portions of the Santa Barbara Channel Monday with local SCA level wind gusts in the eastern portion as well as near Point Dume, and into the San Pedro Channel. High confidence in widespread SCA level winds across the Channel and the Inner Waters off the LA and OC coasts including nearshore on Tuesday. Chances for SCA winds back off Wednesday and Thursday, but remain moderate for the western and southern portions of the Santa Barbara Channel along with local gusts near Point Dume, and into the San Pedro Channel. Choppy, short period seas will be common Tuesday. Patchy dense fog may affect the coastal waters overnight and in the morning hours through the period, with best chances in the waters off the Central Coast. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to midnight PDT tonight for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Schoenfeld AVIATION...Lewis MARINE...Lewis SYNOPSIS...Schoenfeld weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox