984
FXUS65 KVEF 061957
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1157 AM PST Mon Jan 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Fair weather will continue this afternoon before a
potent weather system drops southward through our forecast area
tonight. This system will bring widespread gusty north winds, a
drop in temperatures, and isolated light mountain shower activity
Tuesday. Strong winds will linger into at least Wednesday.
Additional disturbances move through Thursday and over the
weekend, with reinforcing shots of cooler air and gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Friday.

Mostly clear skies exist across most of the forecast area this
afternoon, with the exception of some increasing mid and high
clouds across the southern Great Basin in advance of our next
weather system. This system will drop south tonight spreading very
light shower/sprinkle activity across the region as the front
slices through the area. Precipitation is not expected to be
widespread or consequential, though some light accumulations of
1-3 inches of snow are possible in the Spring Mountains through
the early morning hours thanks to steep lapse rates and a fairly
moist profile in the mid and upper levels.

The bigger issue will be the north winds filling in behind the
advancing cold front. NBM continues to carry elevated
probabilities of reaching High Wind Criteria across much of Inyo &
San Bernardino Counties, the Colorado River Valley, and to a
lesser extent parts of Clark County. Winds will be ramping up
prior to daybreak, and only increase through the morning and
mixing takes place. Wind gusts exceeding 60 mph appear most likely
near Laughlin and Lake Mohave, where terrain will help channel the
strong northerly gradient winds through the river valley. The
winds along the river will also remain elevated well into
Wednesday, and perhaps Thursday as a reinforcing wave drops south.
Further North and West, strong northerly winds will be most
likely as the front moves through in the morning, followed by a
secondary maximum in the evening as pressure gradients maximize.
While a high wind warning is in effect for the Las Vegas Valley,
this is mainly driven by NBM probabilities of 60mph wind gusts
across the western edge of the metro, namely the Summerlin,
Centennial Hills, and Mountains Edge areas. Wind gusts elsewhere
in the valley should range more in the 40-50 mph category.

Winds will remain quite gusty into Wednesday though a tad weaker
than the magnitude Tuesday promises. An additional shortwave
dropping south Thursday will work to reinforce the pattern, and
boost northerly winds once more while keeping temperatures near
normal.

.LONG TERM...Saturday into early next week.

North-Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail over the weekend,
leaving our region exposed to additional disturbances dropping in
from the north. Guidance remains varied on the timing and
strength of each of these individual waves, but the overall
message remains that periods of gusty winds and cooler
temperatures will continue. There are some hints that a stronger
wave will drop south early next week and close off somewhere over
the Southwest US, though there is wide variance in where it
tracks, which in turn will dictate whether this feature is more a
of a wind or precipitation producer.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Low impact weather expected with light
diurnal winds prevailing today through the first half of tonight.
Overnight, between 06Z and 09Z, winds are expected to turn north to
northwest. Low chance (30%) for wind speeds over 10KT with the
initial wind shift, most like winds will stay around 8KT until about
12Z when stronger north winds arrive and probabilities for wind
speeds over 10KT jumps to 80% or more. Gusty north winds are
expected through Tuesday starting around 12Z, with a high
probability for wind gusts over 25KT through 00Z Wednesday at least.
The strongest winds will be 18Z onward when gust over 30KT are
possible. No precipitation is expected, though virga will be
possible in and around the valley between 12Z to 18Z Tuesday
morning. CIGs during that time period may drop to around 10kft.
Mountain turbulence is expected Tuesday with the strong winds, and
blowing dust will be possible at times however the risk for
visibilities less than 5SM is low at this time.

Winds at KVGT will be stronger and start earlier due to local
terrain effects. Wind speeds over 10KT and the onset of gusts should
occur when the northwest winds arrive at North Las Vegas as opposed
to later in the morning through the rest of the valley. Henderson
will be slower as northwest winds transition across the valley. Most
like, KHND will not see gusts develop until around sunrise, between
14Z to 16Z, when probabilities for wind gusts over 25KT increase to
50% or greater. Otherwise, similar trends in winds are expected at
KVGT and KHND Tuesday with wind gusting to 30-35KT at times,
especially in the afternoon. Gusty north to northwest winds will
diminish slightly Tuesday evening compared to the afternoon, however
elevated wind speeds with continued gusts are expected to persist
through the night.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Isolated to scattered showers are possible in the
Southern Great Basin through Inyo County this afternoon and evening.
And precipitation that does develop and make it to the ground will
be light, so not expecting significant precipitation impacts.
However, CIGs to around 7000ft are possible through, including
around KBIH between 06Z-12Z. Precipitation will quickly transition
southeast through the rest of the region Tuesday however there risk
is low (20%) and CIGs should remain around 8000ft-10kft.

Gusty north to northwest winds are the main concern through Tuesday
as a front sweeps across the region. Winds will increase out of the
northwest through Inyo County and the souther Great Basin through
this afternoon with gusts of 20-30KT expected in northern Inyo
County and Esmeralda County, including KBIH. These winds will
continue to transition across the region tonight, reach southern
Nevada and western Arizona by early Tuesday morning. The KDAG area
will be the last to see the transition to gusty north winds, likely
arriving around 18Z Tuesday. Winds tonight and Tuesday will 25 to 35
KT at times, with the strongest winds expected down the Colorado
River Valley where there is a 50% chance for gusts over 40KT Tuesday
afternoon. Gusty north to northwest winds will diminish slightly
Tuesday evening but elevated winds will persist through the night in
most locations.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Nickerson

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