092 FXUS65 KVEF 030842 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 142 AM PDT Thu Apr 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through today as an upper level system shifts through the region. Impacts will be limited with small hail and sudden gusty winds possible, as well as light to briefly moderate snow above 5000ft. Isolated showers are possible in Mohave County on Friday, otherwise the rest of the forecast is dry into next week. Temperatures will remain well below normal today but will slowly recover and return to near normal over the weekend with well above normal readings expected by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday. Radar through the early morning hours showed light showers lingering over northeast Clark and northern Mohave County under an upper level low centered over southwest Utah. Light rain amounts were reported at times but no impacts were noted with this feature. This area of light precipitation will shift east into northeast Mohave County through the morning, but will likely dry up as it does so. Again this morning- models were not handling the lingering weak instability that was noted on mesoanalysis, so hesitant to say showers will end completely in northern Mohave County this morning as the low does not move and the few models that did have some instability kept isolated showers around in the Arizona Strip through the morning. Light showers are possible, but impacts will continue to be minimal to none. A similar weather set up to yesterday is expected today with a deep upper level trough sitting over western Arizona through the day. Compared to yesterday though, PWATs will be lower and midlevels will be warmer as heights increase as the trough begins to weaken. With less moisture and instability, showers will be less widespread than yesterday. Precipitation should develop under the trough axis in southern Nevada into Arizona, but there should be less coverage and showers will favor the terrain. In addition- with less moisture, showers will be less efficient with lighter rain rates and a lower chance for precipitation to reach the ground. Small hail and brief gusty winds will be possible again today with any showers and isolated thunderstorms that develop, but with less instability there will be a lower risk for impacts. Snow levels will be a little higher than yesterday, around 5000-6000ft, but with less moisture there should be less snow accumulation than yesterday. The peaks of the Spring Mountains could see another 2-3 inches today, with maybe an inch in elevations to 6000ft through the afternoon. Further west in western San Bernardino County into Inyo, Esmeralda, most of Nye county- it will likely remain dry today with mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light across the region. Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday, and north winds will be lighter so it may feel less chilly overall- however high temperatures today will remain 10-15 degrees below normal for the beginning of April. The upper level trough will lift out Friday and Saturday, moving away from the region and taking the showers and cold temperatures with it. On Friday, precipitation chances will be limited to Mohave County where colder temperatures aloft and some cyclonic flow from the exiting system will continue to have some influence, but impacts will be low as moisture and forcing continue to decrease. Further west, it will remain dry. By Saturday, the entire area will remain precipitation free. A ridge will build in behind the trough, which will put the region in a transition area on Friday and Saturday between the two systems. This will result in breezy north winds, with gusts of 15-25 MPH likely areawide on Friday then 25-35 MPH gusts on Saturday. The best chance for wind impacts will be on Saturday in the Colorado River Valley where there is a moderate chance (60%-80%) for gusts over 40 MPH. Temperatures will rebound as heights rise and a warmer airmass begins to move in, each day warming about 5 degrees warmer than the previous. By Saturday, high temperatures will be only be a couple of degrees below normal- a big chance from the 20 degree below normal temperatures we had on Thursday. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday. Through the weekend and start of next week, skies clear and temperatures increase above seasonal normals as a ridge of high pressure builds in the Pacific across the Desert Southwest. Monday and Tuesday have a 95% and 100% chance, respectively, for reaching 80 degrees here in Las Vegas. HeatRisk increases back to "Low" (Level 1 on a scale of 0-4) for desert valleys over the weekend including Las Vegas, Moapa Valley, Death Valley, Pahrump Valley, and the Colorado River Valley. [Note] "Low" HeatRisk does not mean that chances of heat-related illness are low for any one individual - it means chances are low for the general population. People who should take extra precautions during "Low" HeatRisk days include those out of town from cooler locations, those consuming alcohol, caffeine, or other drugs, and those without adequate means of hydration or air conditioning. Meanwhile, chances of 90 degrees return to Las Vegas and 100 degrees return to Death Valley mid-to-late week as the southeastern Pacific ridge continues to build into the extended forecast. HeatRisk climbs to "Moderate" (Level 2 on a scale of 0-4) for our lowest valleys on Wednesday. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Once shower activity and associated northerly outflow breezes weaken, winds should settle into their typical, overnight pattern or go light and variable. Cloud cover will gradually improve overnight. Similar conditions anticipated tomorrow afternoon as showers redevelop on the high terrain. Greatest confidence in precipitation is over the Spring Mountains, with outflow from this activity driving westerly breezes. Winds may exceed 10 knots at times, potentially gusting up to 25 knots if convection is stronger. Chance of thunder less than 20%. Precipitation potential will wane in the early evening, resulting in improving sky conditions and light winds. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Shower activity and associated outflow winds in the Las Vegas and lower Colorado River valleys are expected to wane in the next few hours. As this occurs, winds should return to typical, overnight patterns or go light and variable. Shower activity returns Thursday afternoon, albeit with less coverage. Best chances are across southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and eastern San Bernardino County. Outflow winds from this activity should favor a northerly or westerly direction at sites in the Las Vegas and lower Colorado River valleys, but erratic winds are always possible with convection. Precipitation potential will wane in the early evening, resulting in improving sky conditions and light winds. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Nickerson LONG TERM...Soulat AVIATION...Woods For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter