604
FXUS66 KLOX 080512
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1012 PM PDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...07/909 PM.

Dry weather is expected across Southwest California through at
least the weekend and likely beyond. A gradual warming trend will
start Tuesday and continue through Thursday. Well above normal
temperatures are likely Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the
mid 80s to low 90s across the valleys. It will turn cooler Friday
and Saturday as onshore flow increases.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...07/1012 PM.

***UPDATE***

High pressure remained in control of the area, keeping the marine
layer shallow, and confined close to the coasts. Temperatures
were quite cool along most west-facing coasts, where marine layer
limited highs around 60 degrees. The valleys and deserts reached
the 70s to mid 80s. Expecting temperatures to trend warmer each
day as the upper level ridge builds.

Northerly Sundowner winds have increased over the western Santa
Barbara south coast, and wind advisories have been issued for
tonight with winds of 20-30 mph, with gusts 50 mph expected.
Should see Sundowner winds reoccur each night, but currently
thinking gusts should remain below advisory levels. Current
forecast looks on track, with no significant changes needed.

***From Previous Discussion***

A trough moving through the Pac NW today has knocked the ridge
down enough to turn gradients onshore and cool things off 4-8
degrees from yesterday in all areas except mountains and Antelope
Valley. In addition, patches of dense fog continue to lurk across
the coastal waters. Expecting one more day of relatively mild
weather and areas of coastal fog before high pressure returns Wed
and Thu, weakening the onshore flow and boosting temperatures.
Locally gusty north winds will continue each evening across
southwest Santa Barbara County and the Grapevine region, mostly
below advisory levels.

For Wed and Thu, still expecting warmer valley highs to reach at
least the lower 90s and about a 50-60% chance of mid 90s in
Woodland Hills, likely warmest on Thu. This puts inland areas
10-15 degrees above normal and coastal areas (mostly 70s) around
5 degrees above normal. Far inland coastal areas like Downtown LA
should be in the low to mid 80s. Records are mostly in the mid
90s so it will be close in the warmest valleys but not likely
elsewhere. For now am holding off issuing any heat risk hazards.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...07/1247 PM.

High pressure starts to get knocked down Friday as the next
Pacific trough arrives. Still a warm day inland Friday with
widespread 80s in the valleys but an earlier sea breeze will bring
temps down at least 3-6 degrees from Thursday. Then 1-3 degrees of
cooling each day over the weekend into early next week as models
are in good agreement showing a weak and slow moving upper low
developing near 30n/125w, by which time all areas except the
higher mountains and Antelope Valley will be at least few degrees
below normal. Expect increasing low clouds and fog along the coast
and likely well into the valleys as well as onshore LAX/DAG gradients
increase to over 9mb.

&&

.AVIATION...08/0350Z.

At 0034Z over KLAX, the marine layer was 600 feet deep with an
inversion top at 2900 ft and 18 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in VFR conditions continuing over KBUR, KVNY,
KPMD, KWJF. Moderate to low confidence elsewhere, with chances
for LIFR/IFR conditions at KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, KOXR, KCMA, KSMO,
KLAX and KLGB.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR conditions through 06Z. 40% chance
of ceilings forming as early 08Z and as late as 15Z. SE winds
will form in the morning hours, but unlikely to exceed 8 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Tuesday
with seasonal onshore winds.

&&

.MARINE...07/856 PM.

A shallow marine layer will bring a risk of dense fog nearly
anywhere across the coastal waters, through most of the week. The
highest chances are off the Central Coast, Los Angeles County
Coast, and Orange County Coast.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds (21+ knots)
and/or seas (of 10+ feet) across the waters beyond 20 miles from
shore tonight through Tuesday night, and likely (50-60%) through
Thursday or into the weekend.

For the nearshore Central Coast and western Santa Barbara Channel,
there is a 60% chance of reaching SCA winds each afternoon and
evening through at least Tuesday. High confidence in conditions
staying under SCA elsewhere.

All areas will see short period choppy seas on top of the long
period swell due to these winds, largest in the late afternoon and
evening hours.

&&

.BEACHES...07/1257 PM.

A long period (14-17 seconds) west to northwest swell will peak
this morning then slowly subside through Tuesday. The current High
Surf Advisories will stay in effect through 3am Tuesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones
      340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 7 AM PDT Tuesday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Phillips/MW
AVIATION...Phillips
MARINE...Kittell/Smith
BEACHES...RK
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox