582 FXUS66 KLOX 141741 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 941 AM PST Tue Jan 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS...14/921 AM. Moderate to strong offshore flow will remain in place through Wednesday with a dry air mass across the region. An extended period of critical fire weather conditions will continue across Southland through midweek due to the combination of gusty winds, very low humidities, and a lack of rainfall. Cold overnight temperatures are expected in wind protected areas for the next few mornings. A cooling trend with higher humidities is expected beginning Thursday and lasting through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...14/940 AM. ***UPDATE*** Winds starting off generally a little lighter than expected as previous models were a little heavy handed for today. Winds are mostly under 30 mph and confined to a corridor that runs from Acton to Oxnard and about 20 miles either side. This corridor still does not include the Palisades fire area as the wind axis still has a stronger east component than a north. And the 12z NAM gradients are suggesting that the north gradient will remain on the weaker side through this event. While some increase in winds is expected today, the latest high res models are maintaining winds mostly under 50 mph through the corridor with just a couple pockets of wind gusts in the mountains up to 60 mph. Some consideration will be given to modifying the current hazards, including possibly the PDS areas. However, models do show a slightly more significant increase in wind speeds Wednesday, but more or less in the same areas as today. ***From Previous Discussion*** The combination of winds, extremely low humidities and tinder dry fuels will lead to an extremely dangerous fire weather environment. Please see the fire weather discussion below for all of the details. The very cold air mass remains in place and all of the wind sheltered inland locations will see freezing temperatures each night. Some lows will be as low as 15 degrees. Another round of Freeze/Frost products will be needed tonight. The cold air mass will moderate a little each day and most max temps will warm some each day. Most of Wednesday`s max temps will be within a few degrees of 70 across the csts/vlys. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...14/319 AM. Dry but benign weather is on tap for Friday and the weekend. Dry cyclonic flow will be over the state. Week offshore flow will continue from the north but there will be onshore flow to the east (esp in the afternoon). There is even a chance of marine layer clouds for the coasts and lower vlys on Fri and Sat mornings. Look for three days of cooling with Sunday`s max temps ending up a few degrees either side of 60 across the csts and vlys. These max temps are 4 to 8 locally 10 degrees below normal. Not the greatest confidence in the Monday forecast. Some solutions do favor a another moderate offshore event, but more members indicate just a weak event with a little bit of warming. && .AVIATION...14/1735Z. At 18Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion. High confidence in VFR conds through the period. There is a 10% chance of MVFR conds in smoke for the Los Angeles County coastal terminals. Wind group changes may be off by +/- 3 hours. There will be areas of LLWS, and moderate to locally strong UDDF and turbulence, especially near the foothills and mtns. Winds may be erratic at times, changing quickly between gusty and light. KLAX...High confidence in VFR conds. There is a 10% chance of 4-5SM FU and/or BKN025 smoke layer. There is a 20% chance of an east wind component reaching 8 kt between 14Z and 20Z Wednesday. KBUR...High confidence in VFR conds. Moderate confidence in winds. Maximum wind gusts may be off +/- 10 kts and wind group changes may be off +/- 3 hours. LLWS is likely through most of the period. Moderate to locally strong turbulence and UDDF will also affect the terminal during the period. && .MARINE...14/428 AM. In the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level E-NE winds will persist in the southern zone (PZZ676) thru Wed afternoon. Local Gale force gusts are possible (20-30% chance) this morning and again late tonight/early Wed in PZZ676. Otherwise, winds and seas will be below SCA levels thru Sat night. There is a 30-40% chance of SCA level NW winds Fri night/Sat. mainly southern zones. In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, except for a 20% chance of SCA level NE winds nearshore during the morning hours today and Wed, SCA level conds are not expected thru Sat night. In the Santa Barbara Channel, Gale force winds are expected much of the time thru early Wed afternoon from Ventura to eastern Santa Cruz Island southward. Winds may drop down to SCA levels at times during this period, especially this evening. SCA level NE winds may continue into Wed night, then benign conds are expected Wed night thru Sat night. Elsewhere, there is a 20% chance of SCA level E winds this morning and again late tonight/Wed morning. In the southern inner waters. Gale force winds are expected from Malibu to Point Mugu and out to Anacapa Island much of the time thru Wed afternoon. Winds may drop below Gale force at times, especially this evening. Then, SCA level NE winds will likely continue into Wed evening. Elsewhere, SCA level NE winds are likely at times thru Wed afternoon. This is especially likely (80% chance) thru the San Pedro Channel out to Avalon and Two Harbors on Catalina Island this morning, and again late tonight and Wed morning. There is a 40% chance of Gale Force winds in this area. Benign conds are then expected Wed night thru Fri. && .BEACHES...14/759 AM. Another round of moderate to locally strong Santa Ana Winds have made it to the region, creating potentially hazardous conditions nearshore and through the San Pedro Channel. Through late this morning and again late tonight into Wednesday afternoon, NE to E winds may create large breaking waves to Avalon and Two Harbors, creating hazardous conditions and possible minor coastal flooding. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Wind Warning remains in effect until noon PST Wednesday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369-371-372-374>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST Wednesday for zones 354-355-358-369-372-374>376-378-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until noon PST Wednesday for zones 370-373-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM PST Wednesday for zones 288-354-355-358-362-369>376-378>380-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until noon PST Wednesday for zones 345-352-353-356-357. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 PM PST Wednesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Wednesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Rorke AVIATION...Lewis MARINE...DB/Lewis BEACHES...Lewis SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox