309 FXUS66 KLOX 030533 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1033 PM PDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS...02/1033 PM. Generally dry weather through tonight except for lingering showers over the interior and some light snow showers at times near the Grapevine. Unsettled weather will return Thursday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms possible and periods of heavy rain near storms. Mostly dry weather on Friday but a 5 to 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms across eastern Los Angeles County. Dry weather is expected over the weekend and all of next week, with significant warming beginning Friday, and well above normal temperatures next Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 90s expected across the valleys. && .SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...02/1027 PM. ***UPDATE*** There`s been little change to the upper level pattern from yesterday, as the area is still under a significant upper level trough. Plenty of showers carried on throughout the day over San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties, with a few afternoon showers further south. Rainfall totals were generally light, but a few areas that saw multiple rounds of showers surpassed 0.25 inches. Northwest winds were again quite gusty (generally around 35-50 mph), especially near the coasts, for the islands, and the Santa Monica Mountains. Temperatures were a touch warmer than yesterday, and the coasts and valleys south of Point Conception saw widespread highs in the 60s to near 70 degrees. Tonight, winds have decreased most areas, and showers persist over interior San Luis Obispo County. Wind advisories were allowed to expire, except for the Santa Ynez Range and western Santa Barbara south coast where some gusty north winds persist through much of tonight. This area may need more wind advisories for Thursday night and Friday night. Other minor changes were made to the forecast, expanding rain chances, but otherwise things look on track for another round of convection with showers and possible thunderstorms. This time, the focus will be over the Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, extending into portions of Santa Barbara County. Winds will be much lighter tomorrow, yet there will likely be a few sub- advisory level breezy areas Thursday afternoon near Point Conception and in the mountains. ***From Previous Discussion*** A large upper level trough continues to engulf most of the western US with an upper low moving into AZ. Showers have been less frequent today and mostly just near the Grapevine region with moderate northwest flow pushing moisture up the north facing slopes. Can`t rule out a stray shower through early evening but best chances for those will remain over the mountains. Also getting some fast moving showers developing across eastern SLO County this afternoon and moving towards the Cuyama valley and the northern Santa Barbara County mountains. Not expecting any thunderstorms but some brief moderate showers are possible through the early evening. Otherwise, mainly dry weather with gusty west to northwest winds through this evening. The trough will only move slightly east Thursday, and with some additional upper level energy moving into southern California and increasing instability, chances for showers and even some thunderstorms are much higher tomorrow than today. Hi res models really focus the precip over the Transverse range through the San Gabriel Mountains, and then spilling down into the valleys and possibly some of the coastal areas. Morning conditions will generally be clear across the area but will quickly cloud over in the afternoon with showers developing. Hourly rain rates in the heaviest storms could reach a half inch, though in most cases storms will only last 20-30 minutes over any one location as the steering flow will be towards the southeast at around 30kt. Snow levels are expected to stay above 5000 feet so no additional snow expected on Interstate 5 but possibly an inch or two at higher elevations. The trough will finally be exiting the area Friday, but there`s still some lingering upper level energy coming through during the afternoon. However, moisture drops off and most of the instability is farther east and south. Have left rain chances out for now but will re-evaluate this with the hi res models tomorrow. Dry and warmer weather expected Saturday with highs 4-8 degrees warmer than Friday .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...02/158 PM. Next week looks quite warm, especially inland and warmest on Wednesday. A fast moving ridge moves through the area over the weekend but gets knocked down Monday as an upper low moves into the Pac NW. So after a couple days of warming temperatures look for Monday to a little cooler, but still a few degrees above normal in most areas. A stronger high pressure ridge returns Tuesday and especially Wednesday. With models also showing gradients either near neutral or slightly offshore, temperatures across the interior coastal plain and especially the valleys will warm up several more degrees, likely reaching the at least the mid 90s for the warmest valleys, with a around a 5-10% chance of Woodland Hills reaching 100. && .AVIATION...03/0526Z. At 0421Z at KLAX, there was a weak surface inversion to 1100 feet with a temperature of 13 C. High confidence in TAFs. There is a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms to impact the mountains and valleys in eastern VTA County and LA county after 18Z through 06Z. Any thunderstorms could produce gusty and erratic winds, +RA, low visibilities, and lightning. KLAX...High confidence in TAF. There is less than a 10% chance for thunderstorms to develop over the terminal from 18Z through 06Z. There is a 40% chance of an east wind component reaching 8 kt between 12Z and 18Z. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. There is a 15% chance for thunderstorms to develop over the terminal from 18Z through 06Z. && .MARINE...02/1018 PM. Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Winds will likely be at or near GALE force levels through late tonight across the southern outer waters and the inner waters south of Point Conception, with local gusts to 35 kt elsewhere. Steep and hazardous seas will continue across all the waters through Thursday morning. Then, there is a 60-80 percent chance Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conds continue through at least Friday evening across most of the waters, except for a 30-50 percent chance for eastern Santa Barbara Channel and the southern inner waters off the LA and OC coasts Thursday afternoon and evening. A lull in SCA conds may occur Friday morning, so currently holding off on extending the current SCA all the way through Friday night, but moderate to high confidence that SCA level winds will return Friday afternoon through late night. Winds will retreat below SCA levels late Friday night through Saturday, with a 20-30 percent chance of SCA winds returning Saturday afternoon into the evening, and a 40-50 percent chance for Sunday afternoon through evening. Higher chances exist for SCA conds early next week. Dense fog may develop this upcoming weekend, especially in the evening to morning hours, in response to a ridge building over the region. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory now in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 4 AM PDT Thursday for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Phillips/MW AVIATION...Lewis MARINE...Lewis SYNOPSIS...Phillips/MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox