582
FXUS66 KLOX 141741
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
941 AM PST Tue Jan 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...14/921 AM.

Moderate to strong offshore flow will remain in place through
Wednesday with a dry air mass across the region. An extended
period of critical fire weather conditions will continue across
Southland through midweek due to the combination of gusty winds,
very low humidities, and a lack of rainfall. Cold overnight
temperatures are expected in wind protected areas for the next
few mornings. A cooling trend with higher humidities is expected
beginning Thursday and lasting through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...14/940 AM.

***UPDATE***

Winds starting off generally a little lighter than expected as
previous models were a little heavy handed for today. Winds
are mostly under 30 mph and confined to a corridor that runs from
Acton to Oxnard and about 20 miles either side. This corridor
still does not include the Palisades fire area as the wind
axis still has a stronger east component than a north. And the
12z NAM gradients are suggesting that the north gradient will
remain on the weaker side through this event. While some increase
in winds is expected today, the latest high res models are
maintaining winds mostly under 50 mph through the corridor with
just a couple pockets of wind gusts in the mountains up to 60 mph.
Some consideration will be given to modifying the current hazards,
including possibly the PDS areas. However, models do show a
slightly more significant increase in wind speeds Wednesday, but
more or less in the same areas as today.

***From Previous Discussion***

The combination of winds, extremely low humidities and tinder dry
fuels will lead to an extremely dangerous fire weather
environment. Please see the fire weather discussion below for all
of the details.

The very cold air mass remains in place and all of the wind
sheltered inland locations will see freezing temperatures each
night. Some lows will be as low as 15 degrees. Another round of
Freeze/Frost products will be needed tonight.

The cold air mass will moderate a little each day and most max
temps will warm some each day. Most of Wednesday`s max temps will
be within a few degrees of 70 across the csts/vlys.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...14/319 AM.

Dry but benign weather is on tap for Friday and the weekend. Dry
cyclonic flow will be over the state. Week offshore flow will
continue from the north but there will be onshore flow to the east
(esp in the afternoon). There is even a chance of marine layer
clouds for the coasts and lower vlys on Fri and Sat mornings.

Look for three days of cooling with Sunday`s max temps ending up a
few degrees either side of 60 across the csts and vlys. These max
temps are 4 to 8 locally 10 degrees below normal.

Not the greatest confidence in the Monday forecast. Some solutions
do favor a another moderate offshore event, but more members
indicate just a weak event with a little bit of warming.

&&

.AVIATION...14/1735Z.

At 18Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

High confidence in VFR conds through the period. There is a
10% chance of MVFR conds in smoke for the Los Angeles County
coastal terminals. Wind group changes may be off by +/- 3 hours.
There will be areas of LLWS, and moderate to locally strong UDDF
and turbulence, especially near the foothills and mtns. Winds may
be erratic at times, changing quickly between gusty and light.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR conds. There is a 10% chance of
4-5SM FU and/or BKN025 smoke layer. There is a 20% chance of an
east wind component reaching 8 kt between 14Z and 20Z Wednesday.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conds. Moderate confidence in
winds. Maximum wind gusts may be off +/- 10 kts and wind group
changes may be off +/- 3 hours. LLWS is likely through most of the
period. Moderate to locally strong turbulence and UDDF will also
affect the terminal during the period.

&&

.MARINE...14/428 AM.

In the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level E-NE winds
will persist in the southern zone (PZZ676) thru Wed afternoon.
Local Gale force gusts are possible (20-30% chance) this morning
and again late tonight/early Wed in PZZ676. Otherwise, winds and
seas will be below SCA levels thru Sat night. There is a 30-40%
chance of SCA level NW winds Fri night/Sat. mainly southern zones.

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, except for a 20% chance of SCA
level NE winds nearshore during the morning hours today and Wed,
SCA level conds are not expected thru Sat night.

In the Santa Barbara Channel, Gale force winds are expected much
of the time thru early Wed afternoon from Ventura to eastern
Santa Cruz Island southward. Winds may drop down to  SCA levels
at times during this period, especially this evening. SCA level NE
winds may continue into Wed night, then benign conds are expected
Wed night thru Sat night. Elsewhere, there is a 20% chance of SCA
level E winds this morning and again late tonight/Wed morning.

In the southern inner waters. Gale force winds are expected from
Malibu to Point Mugu and out to Anacapa Island much of the time
thru Wed afternoon. Winds may drop below Gale force at times,
especially this evening. Then, SCA level NE winds will likely
continue into Wed evening. Elsewhere, SCA level NE winds are
likely at times thru Wed afternoon. This is especially likely
(80% chance) thru the San Pedro Channel out to Avalon and Two
Harbors on Catalina Island this morning, and again late tonight
and Wed morning. There is a 40% chance of Gale Force winds in
this area. Benign conds are then expected Wed night thru Fri.

&&

.BEACHES...14/759 AM.

Another round of moderate to locally strong Santa Ana Winds have
made it to the region, creating potentially hazardous conditions
nearshore and through the San Pedro Channel. Through late this
morning and again late tonight into Wednesday afternoon, NE to E
winds may create large breaking waves to Avalon and Two Harbors,
creating hazardous conditions and possible minor coastal flooding.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Wind Warning remains in effect until noon PST Wednesday
      for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369-371-372-374>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST Wednesday for zones
      354-355-358-369-372-374>376-378-379. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until noon PST Wednesday for
      zones 370-373-377. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM PST Wednesday for zones
      288-354-355-358-362-369>376-378>380-548. (See LAXRFWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect until noon PST Wednesday for zones
      345-352-353-356-357. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 PM PST Wednesday for zones
      650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Wednesday for
      zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...DB/Lewis
BEACHES...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox