553 FXUS66 KMTR 141038 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 338 AM PDT Mon Apr 14 2025 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 308 AM PDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Quiet weather continues and above normal temperatures today. A pattern change begins Tuesday, allowing temperatures to peak around their seasonal average. A cooling trend is forecast for mid to late week, with a warming trend returning for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 308 AM PDT Mon Apr 14 2025 High pressure will lead to another warm and dry day today, with high temperatures being about 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Ended up reviewing yesterday`s forecast and using that as a starting point for today, which puts widespread 70s across the region, with low 80s being realized for interior valleys. Along the immediate coast, the upper 50s to 60s should be realized. Minor Heatrisk is forecast for much of the region, which means this type of heat primarily affects individuals extremely sensitive to heat, especially when outdoors without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 308 AM PDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Little to no change in the extended forecast. A pattern change begins Tuesday, with an upper level low gradually moving into and across southern CA. This will lead to a decrease in temperatures through the end of the week. The main question remains, will we get any sort of precipitation out of this, and in particular thunderstorms? The signal still shows the opportunity for an unstable atmosphere, with favor now leaning towards Wednesday. So much so that the SPC has places a general risk of thunder along our portion of the southern Coastal Range. Would like to see a touch more in terms of agreement in the models and ensembles before adding thunder to our forecast locally before adding the mention of thunder in our forecast. But, given what was seen tonight in terms of data, agree with the general area that was highlighted should models come into even more agreement. Beyond that, dry weather looks to be on tap. With a warming and drying trend expected for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 947 PM PDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Winds continue to reduce into the night and look to become light for most areas. Cloud cover will move slowly into the region from the south overnight. This will lead to IFR CIGs filling over HAF and SNS in the late night, and some CIGs affecting MRY for Monday morning. The North Bay terminals look to see moments of fog into early Monday morning, and lasting through the mid morning. While all other terminals look to see VFR by the end of Monday morning, IFR CIGs continue for HAF beyond the TAF period. Moderate winds return for Monday afternoon, but wind directions will be more affected by localized effects. IFR CIGs will build inland into that evening. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Expect winds to reduce into the early night becoming light through the late morning. West winds will increase again into Monday afternoon, but only to moderate speeds before becoming light again into that night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO Monterey Bay Terminals...Winds are becoming light around the terminals. Cloud cover is rotating around the Monterey Bay around an eddy, transporting cloud cover counter-clockwise. Said eddy pushed IFR CIGs into SNS but are now pulling them toward the northern portions of the Monterey Bay. Low clouds move up the Big Sur Coast and into the Monterey Bay in the late night as the oscillation begins to fall apart. MRY will initially be sheltered from these clouds, with SNS filling in the late night through much of the morning. Inconsistent CIGs look to affect MRY in the early to late morning before cloud cover retreats back to into the bay itself. As terminals return to VFR, moderate winds build for Monday afternoon. IFR CIGs return in the early evening on Monday as winds become light && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 308 AM PDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Gentle to moderate northerly breezes are expected today which will be accompanied with subsiding seas. Moderate seas hold through mid week or so, and then build into the latter portion of the work week. Winds will increase as well and another round of Small Craft Advisories may be needed. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...KR MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea