132
FXUS66 KLOX 071036
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
336 AM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...07/244 AM.

Temperatures today will be either below or near normal, followed
by a noticeable warming trend starting Tuesday. The heat spell
will peak on Wednesday and Thursday, with many areas 5 to 10
degrees above normal. Some cooling is expected by the weekend,
followed by another warming trend early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...07/336 AM.

Today will be one last day of either below or near normal
temperatures before a noticeable warming trend starts on Tuesday.
The cooling impact of the upper low off the coast of NorCal will
diminish starting Tuesday, as high pressure currently centered
over Arizona and New Mexico strengthens and noses into the SoCal
region. Warming will occur across the entire region, but will be
the most dramatic away from the beaches and coastal plains, where
moderate onshore flow will dampen some of the heat. This heat
spell will peak on Wednesday and Thursday, with many areas around
5 to 10 degrees above normal. Temperatures are most likely to peak
at 95-103 degrees for inland valleys, 100-105 across the deserts,
and near 90 for inland coastal areas including Downtown LA. The
chances for widespread highs 10-15+ degrees above normal (that
would warrant extensive Heat Advisories/Warnings) has decreased,
thus confidence has increased for the current temperature
forecast.

Moderate HeatRisk is expected for much of LA County (except for
the beaches), meaning that heat will affect sensitive individuals
such as outdoor workers or those without air conditioning or
adequate hydration. Some interior areas across the counties north
of LA will also see Moderate HeatRisk. At this point, there is a
chance for some Heat Advisories to be issued, though they would
be rather borderline. The hot spell will also bring fire weather
concerns across all non- coastal areas, as well as southwest
Santa Santa Barbara County. Dry and hot conditions will combine
with some areas of gusty winds, including onshore winds across the
interior and northerly Sundowner winds for SW Santa Barbara
County.

There is a brief window of southeasterly upper level flow for the
region that may bring some monsoonal mositure and PWATS of 1+
inch late Tuesday through Wednesday, thus there is around a 5
percent chance of thunderstorms focused over the Antelope Valley
and San Gabriel mountains.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...07/307 AM.

Thursday`s temperatures will be similar to Wednesday, if not
slightly warmer by 1 to 3 degrees. Friday the high pressure ridge
will gradually weaken in strength, though it is likely to remain
over the region through the weekend, and very strong onshore
surface pressure gradients will return, leading to several degrees
of cooling. Most areas will see HeatRisk dropping to the Minor
category Friday through the weekend with Temperatures reaching
below normal by Saturday. The one exception will be some interior
areas such as the Antelope Valley, the western San Fernando
Valley, and the Cuyama Valley, that will remain well above normal
with Moderate HeatRisk. There is a developing signal for monsoon
moisture moving into the area by around the 16th of the month.

&&

.AVIATION...07/0523Z.

At 0451Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 1000 ft deep. The
top of the inversion was around 4200 feet with a temperature of
24 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KWJF and KPMD.

Low confidence in TAF for KPRB after 10Z Sun. There is a 30%
chance of LIFR cigs arriving. Otherwise, high confidence in VFR
conditions.

Low confidence in TAF for KSBA. There is a 40% chc of no low
clouds at KSBA through the period.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY
restrictions may be off by 2 hours and min flight cat by one
category. There is a 30% chance of LIFR conds at KOXR/KCMA from
10Z to 15Z Mon. There is a 15% chance of LIFR to IFR cigs at
KBUR/KVNY between 09Z and 16Z, but confidence in minimum flight
cat is low.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs may bounce between SCT and
BKN 005-010 through 08Z-10Z. Departure of CIGs may be off +/- 90
mins. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 15% chance for LIFR
to IFR cigs from 09Z to 15Z, with low confidence in minimum flight
cat.

&&

.MARINE...07/201 AM.

Local Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds may linger in portions of
the Outer Waters south of Point Concpetion into the early morning.
Moderate confidence in more widespread SCA level winds across the
aforementioned area this afternoon and evening, and higher
confidence Tuesday. High confidence in SCA level winds expanding
across the rest of the Outer Waters and moderate confidence for
the Inner Waters along the Central Coast Wednesday through
Thursday. Seas are likely to remain below SCA thresholds through
the period.

Inside the southern California bight, moderate confidence in SCA
level winds in the western and southern portions of the Santa
Barbara Channel Monday with local SCA level wind gusts in the
eastern portion as well as near Point Dume, and into the
San Pedro Channel. High confidence in widespread SCA level winds
across the Channel and the Inner Waters off the LA and OC coasts
including nearshore on Tuesday. Chances for SCA winds back off
Wednesday and Thursday, but remain moderate for the western and
southern portions of the Santa Barbara Channel along with local
gusts near Point Dume, and into the San Pedro Channel. Choppy,
short period seas will be common Tuesday.

Patchy dense fog may affect the coastal waters overnight and in
the morning hours through the period, with best chances in the
waters off the Central Coast.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to
      midnight PDT tonight for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox