928
FXUS66 KSGX 050432
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
930 PM PDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly clear skies and warmer weather will prevail in all areas
through Sunday. The warming trend will continue over inland areas
much of next week with temperatures 10 to locally 20 degrees above
normal. More moderate temperatures will occur near the coast, though
still a few degrees degrees above normal. Low clouds will redevelop
again sometime next week but maybe be restricted to coastal areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Update:

Skies have cleared out after scattered light showers and even an
isolated thunderstorm over the San Diego County mountains. All
recorded rainfall was less than 0.10". Little or no marine layer
will exist this weekend as high pressure aloft builds, and we get
substantial warming in all areas. High pressure will dominate for
the next week, but starting next weekend, model ensembles vary
greatly with their solutions as a trough of low pressure will move
through at least parts of the West Coast with the southerly extent
in question.

Previous Discussion:

A 554 mb low over Arizona is continuing to push off to the east
this afternoon. Behind it, leftover moisture remains in place as
scattered clouds move into parts of the mountains and deserts this
afternoon. Hi-res models have removed any mentionable precip, but
a slight chance remains for a light shower or two across the San
Diego County mountains through the afternoon hours. The low will
continue to push into New Mexico and parts of west Texas by the
weekend, leading to high pressure taking prominence over our
region. This will lead to warmer temperatures and sunnier skies
over SoCal. Offshore flow has also developed behind this system
today with gusts across the mountains near 20-30 MPH. These will
become more widespread by Saturday morning, where mountains north
of SD County into the Inland Empire will see wind gusts near 25-35
MPH at times. Hi-res guidance shows a low to moderate chance of
seeing winds over 40 mph for areas in and just below the Cajon
Pass. Winds will become lighter by Saturday evening.

A weak trough to the north and a ridge to the south will help to
keep us away from much change in terms of temperatures by early
next week with highs around 5 to locally 10 degrees above normal.
Cluster ensemble guidance remains in fair agreement on the ridge
to the south amplifying by the middle of next week. This will help
generate another increase in temperatures where some areas will
see highs near 20 degrees above normal. NBM probabilities for
triple digit heat in the lower deserts are around 20% on Wednesday
and 50% by Thursday. 90 degree probabilities are moderate to high
across the Inland Empire with lower chances for the SD Co inland
valleys and high desert during this time period as well. A trough
to the north may push ashore along the West Coast by later next
week, which would help to cool our region, but model timing and
strength of this feature is uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...
050315Z...Today`s cumulus field has fizzled out this evening with
mostly clear skies expected to persist into Saturday. <10% chance of
CIGs due to low marine clouds overnight. North to northeast winds
strengthen Saturday morning starting 15Z, with areas of wind gusts
20-35 kts for mountains, deserts and parts of the Inland Empire
through early Sat evening. Mod up/downdrafts near the mountains and
areas of LLWS possible in valleys, especially Saturday morning.
Winds weaken 00-03z Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Maxwell (Update)/APR (Previous Discussion)
AVIATION/MARINE...Munyan