739 FXUS66 KMFR 261216 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 516 AM PDT Sat Jul 26 2025 .DISCUSSION... It was another active thunderstorm day during Friday in Modoc and Siskiyou County. The National Lightning Detection Network(NLDN) picked up on ~775 cloud to ground flashes with the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network(ENTLN/ENI) picking up ~4000. In any case, it will be another active in northern California, although notably lower compared to the last few days. The Storm Prediction Center HREF is predicting about a 20 to 30 percent chance of cloud to ground lightning this afternoon in Modoc County, which is notably lower compared to yesterday. Like the last few days, storm motion will be minimal, so we should see some wetting rain under these thunderstorms with precipitable water(PWAT) values around 0.65 near Alturas(KAAT). Models are now showing thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and evening in northern California and locations east of the Cascades. This is looking pretty scattered right now, although the cloud to ground lightning probabilities on the SPC HREF probabilities is about 30 to 50 percent, which is still pretty good. Storm motion should be a little better on Sunday evening with more notable south 10 to 15 knots southerly flow. Beyond the next few days, it seems models are picking up on a consistent thunderstorm threat across the region Monday through Thursday. It is pretty impressive to see this persistent thunderstorm threat for almost 7 days straight with persistent troughing in the Pacific Northwest. The one thing that does stand out right now is the potential for some nocturnal thunderstorms Wednesday night based off of the QPF fields from the ECMWF ensemble. A notable amount of members(~40%) are showing convection overnight somewhere over Oregon with some members pushing convection farther north into PQR`s area and 1 or 2 as farther east into BOI`s CWA. Still a lot to sort out, but it will be something that needs to be watched in future forecasts. -Smith && .AVIATION...26/12Z TAFs...MVFR and IFR ceilings cover the coast and coastal valleys this morning with a stronger marine push. It looks like the marine layer will stay outside of Roseburg this morning. Those lower ceilings will build off by the late morning hours. Otherwise, thunderstorms should will likely develop in north eastern California and south central Oregon again this afternoon. These storms will probably stay away from TAF sites, although the chance for some lightning near KLMT is about 15 percent. -Smith && .MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Saturday, July 26, 2025...Sub-advisory north winds and low seas of 5 ft or less, will persist through the weekend into early next week. Of note, winds will briefly approach small craft advisory levels through this evening, between Port Orford and Gold Beach, 2 to 20 nm from shore. Winds then lower overnight. Areas of fog and low stratus will also persist through this time. Winds and seas may trend slightly higher around Tuesday of next week. -Smith && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$