851
FXUS66 KLOX 191033
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
333 AM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...19/256 AM.

A cooling trend will begin today and continue through Saturday as
low pressure develops along the West Coast. Increasing night and
morning low clouds and fog are expected as well. Gusty northerly
winds are expected across southern Santa Barbara County and
through the Interstate 5 Corridor for the next several nights.
Below normal temperatures are expected next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...19/331 AM.

With high pressure aloft getting pushed east by a low pressure
system over the Pac NW, temperatures will be cooling down several
degrees across most areas through Saturday except for the
immediate coast. Low clouds and fog have already pushed as far
north as southern Santa Barbara County and at 2am there was an
onshore trend of over 2mb from Wednesday at this time. Expecting
highs today to drop about 5 degrees today and an additional 10
degrees Friday with low clouds starting to work their way into the
coastal valleys.

The other weather factor the next couple days will be the return
of gusty Sundowner winds tonight and again Friday night after a
brief one day respite. The strongest winds will be Friday night
into early Saturday morning when SMX-SBA gradients get close to
-5mb. Could see wind gusts close to 55mph during that time with
strong Gale winds across the adjacent coastal waters and Channel
Islands as well.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...19/329 AM.

An upper level trough pattern is expected to continue at least
through early next week keeping temperatures a few degrees below
normal for the coast and as much as 5-10 degrees below normal for
inland areas. Low clouds and fog will push well into the coastal
valleys overnight with slower than usual clearing at the beaches.
May even have some patchy drizzle at times in the early morning
hours. A warming trend is expected to begin Wednesday as high
pressure begins to expand from the eastern Pacific.

&&

.AVIATION...19/1013Z.

At 10Z over KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 4200 feet with a temperature of 27 Celsius.

High confidence in VFR TAFs at KPRB, KPMD, and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in any lower flight categories staying
IFR/MVFR with OVC008-012 most common. Moderate confidence in good
clearing at typical times.

LLWS 10-20 knots possible at KSBA Friday 01-08Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in bases staying in the 008-015 range.
Clearing to VFR could happen as early as 16Z or as late as 19Z.
There is a 30% chance of a brief BKN010 22-01Z. Southeast winds
will be prevalent through 17Z, with a 20% chance of exceeding 8
knots.

KBUR...Chance of ceilings is now 70%, forming as early as 10Z or
as late as 13Z. Moderate confidence in bases at 006-010. High
confidence in typical onshore winds.

&&

.MARINE...19/227 AM.

Southeast winds will impact the nearshore waters south of Point
Conception through this morning, up to around 15 knots in the
passages and channels.

***HAZARDOUS SEAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY***

High confidence in prolonged upper-end Gale Force northwest winds
beyond 20 miles from shore from late Thursday afternoon through
Saturday night. Moderate confidence in gusts of 30 to 35 knots
impacting the nearshore Central Coast waters and western Santa
Barbara Channel each afternoon and evening during this stretch.
All waters will see building and hazardously steep short period
seas. Small craft should stay in safe harbor, especially in the
afternoon and evening hours.

High confidence in lowering winds and subsiding seas for the first
half of next week, with abnormally large high tides each evening.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to 9
      AM PDT Friday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 645-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 6
      PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to midnight PDT
      tonight for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Sunday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RK
MARINE...RK
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox