078 FXUS65 KVEF 161200 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 500 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and windy conditions will result in elevated wildfire concerns today across portions of southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 12 PM to 8 PM. * Dry and hotter-than-normal conditions persist through the end of the work week. * Gusty southwesterly winds return late-week into the weekend as a longwave trough drops temperatures across the region. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday. The Desert Southwest remains sandwiched between an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and an area of high pressure over northern Mexico, resulting in a dry southwest flow aloft (and breezy southwest winds each afternoon). Today, a shortwave will push into the region, which will further increase southwesterly winds to 30 to 35 mph across the western Mojave Desert, Owens Valley, and higher terrain across the forecast area (20-30 mph elsewhere). There is a 30-50% chance of an isolated gust to 40 mph, but these will be isolated in space and time, so opted out of a Wind Advisory. These winds coupled with bone dry conditions will elevate wildfire concerns, so a Red Flag Warning has been hoisted from 12 PM to 8 PM today, as a result. Details can be found in the FIRE WEATHER section below. A ridge over the Desert Southwest originating from a high pressure centered over northern Mexico will continue to produce temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normals for the region. Temperatures will drop slightly over the next couple of days as a result of a shortwave passage, but will rebound back to well-above-normal by Thursday. "Major" HeatRisk returns to desert valleys mid-to-late week, which may result in an additional heat-related headline. Of note, "Moderate" HeatRisk will creep into the higher elevations moreso late-week than it did on Father`s Day, meaning people will struggle to find heat relief by escaping to the mountains. This heat will peak Wednesday and Thursday before temperatures drop substantially through Sunday. Late-week, ensembles indicate that the Gulf of Alaska closed low will quickly push southward into the Great Basin. As the Desert Southwest remains sandwiched between this system and the northern Mexico high, pressure gradients will tighten, resulting in a return of breezy southwesterly winds between 25 and 35 mph on Thursday and Friday. Through the weekend, the low`s trough axis will push through our forecast area. The associated cold front will increase pre- frontal winds on Saturday, with speeds 35 to 45 mph and will drop temperatures below seasonal normals by the end of the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 12 PM to 8 PM today across southern Nevada (Zones 462, 464, 465, 466) and northwestern Arizona (Zones 101, 102). A shortwave trough will push into the region, resulting in gusty southwest winds. Speeds will generally range from 25 to 35 mph, with occasional gusts to 40 mph in the western Mojave Desert, Owens Valley, and the higher terrain of the forecast area. The Storm Prediction Center`s Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook has highlighted Clark County, northern Mohave County, and Washington County as "Critical". Increased risk of wildfire starts and spreads is a result of these breezy southwest winds coupled with single-digit minimum relative humidities and poor overnight recoveries (5-15%). Lighter wind speeds and marginally improved overnight RHs expected through midweek before gusty southwesterly winds return. SPC Fire Weather Outlook has a 40% contour for strong winds and low RH across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona Thursday through Saturday. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...The primary aviation concern through the forecast period will be gusty southwesterly to westerly winds. Wind gusts will develop this morning, with gusts to 20-25KT increasing to 25-30KT this afternoon through this evening. Gusty winds continue overnight, with gusts diminishing near daybreak and shifting to the northwest toward the end of the period. VFR conditions will prevail with periodic high clouds around 25kft this afternoon. Temperatures will be 100 degrees or greater between 18Z-04Z, peaking at 108 degrees around 23Z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Another round of gusty southwesterly to westerly wind is expected across the region later this morning through early this evening. Gusts to 20-30KT will be common, with the strongest winds across the Western Mojave Desert, including KDAG. Winds will diminish overnight across the Lower Colorado River Valley and in northern Inyo County, but will remain elevated and at least intermittently gusty elsewhere with gusts to around 20-25KT through the end of the forecast period. VFR conditions will prevail, with passing high clouds around 25kft. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Soulat AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter