312
FXUS66 KLOX 092057
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
157 PM PDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...09/120 PM.

A warming trend will peak today and Thursday, with many areas 5
to 10 degrees above normal. Temperatures will return to near
normal over the weekend with increasing night and morning low
clouds and fog for coast and some coastal valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...09/138 PM.

Today and Thursday will be the warmest days of the week as high
pressure over Arizona expands into California. Central Coast areas
are a day behind as the lingering trough over northern California
is limiting the warming there today. Will have another evening of
warm Sundowners across southwest Santa Barbara County with
widespread gusts of 25-35 and isolated gusts as high as 45-50 mph
in the Refugio area.

Another warm day Thursday with highs again 5-10 degrees above
normal. Marine layer stratus and dense fog will push inland
across the Central Coast and can`t rule out some patches of dense
fog across coastal LA County early Thursday.

A strong onshore trend on Friday will force cooler maritime air
into the valleys and bring high temperatures down 4-8 degrees
from Thursday. May also see increasing low clouds and fog near the
coast south of Pt Conception as well. Far interior areas will
remain hot but likely cool a degree or two. Increasing west to
southwest winds are expected for interior areas.

By Saturday most coast and valley areas will be back to normal day
time temperatures with areas of low clouds and fog working their
way into the valleys with again gusty onshore winds across the
interior.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...09/155 PM.

Models continue to advertise very strong onshore flow next week,
but also still high pressure aloft. The marine inversion will
remain fairly low but should be deep enough to sneak into the
valleys for a few hours each morning. Low clouds will clear to
near the coast but some beaches may remain cloudy well into the
afternoon. Highs for coast and valleys will be 2-5 degrees below
normal through the period. Interior areas will remain seasonably
warm and will likely warm a couple degrees early next week. Gusty
onshore winds each afternoon will increase the fire danger there
each day.

Models also still indicating increasing easterly flow aloft by
Tue and Wed that will increase moisture aloft with at least a
5-10% chance of showers and thunderstorms locally. Low levels
remain quite dry but certainly can`t rule out some monsoon
showers with PW`s increasing rapidly to over an inch.

&&

.AVIATION...09/1743Z.

At 1711Z, the marine layer was around 600 feet deep at KLAX. The
top of the inversion was near 2300 feet with a max temperature of
27 C.

High confidence in KPMD, KWJF, KBUR, and KVNY.

Low confidence in KPRB after 10Z. There is a 40% chance for LIFR
cigs/vsbys 10Z to 16Z.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. For KSMX and KSBP there is
a 40% chance for 1/4SM vsbys tonight, with best chances between
07Z and 15Z. Arrival of cigs may be off by 2 hours. Moderate to
high confidence in VFR conds through the period, except for a
chance for LIFR/IFR cigs after 08Z at KLGB (20%), KLAX/KSMO
(10%).

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 10% chance of
OVC003-OVC006 cigs and vsbys 1SM to 2SM from 08Z-16Z. Moderate
confidence in any east wind component between 08Z and 17Z
remaining under 8 kts.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...09/132 PM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will continue across the
outer waters south of Point Conception through late Thursday
night. Localized Gale Force winds are possible (30% chance) this
evening across the northern outer waters, near Point Conception,
and Santa Cruz Island. Seas will peak around 6 to 8 feet tonight
through Saturday.

SCA level winds are likely for the inner waters north of Point
Sal and the Santa Barbara Channel in the afternoon/evening through
Thursday. Local SCA winds may occur this evening off the coast of
LA and Orange Counties, particularly across the San Pedro Channel
and near Point Dume during the aforementioned time. Steep and
choppy seas are likely across the entirety of the inner waters
through Thursday night.

Patchy dense fog may affect the coastal waters overnight and in
the morning hours, with best chances in the waters off the Central
Coast tonight into the morning.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox