237 FXUS66 KHNX 270501 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1001 PM PDT Sat Jul 26 2025 .UPDATE... Aviation and Air Quality Updated && && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. There is a 10 to 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop across the Sierra Nevada Crest through this evening, especially in the high Sierra near Yosemite National Park. 2. Dry lightning is possible today in developed storms due to a probability less than 30 percent for greater than 0.10" of rain. 3. Cooler, below-average temperatures and breezy conditions continue for the remainder of the weekend, with some fire weather concerns. 4. Minimal change in the overall weather pattern with a slow warming trend Sunday into next week. A return to triple digits is possible across the San Joaquin Valley by Tuesday and the Kern County desert by Monday. && .DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough is currently over Northern CA with the center of the low over the Sierra Nevada near Yosemite. This feature will continue to move towards the Great Basin over this weekend. Another round of high temperatures at near to below average is in store for today while breeziness continues along the prone areas of near the coastal ranges (50-70 percent chance of at least 25 mph gusts) and along the Mojave Desert slope (50-70 percent chance of 40 mph gusts or stronger) into this evening. The winds continue to produce at least a slight risk for new fires in these areas. A gradual warming trend begins Sunday into next week as ridging builds into Central CA. Highs near 100 degrees become a possibility in the SJ Valley (15-35 percent) by Tuesday and a greater chance (45-75 percent) into the Kern County desert by as early as Monday. Otherwise, expect mainly seasonal temperatures with highs in the upper 90`s in most valley locations and into the triple digits in the hottest desert locations. Steady temperatures last well into next week. In the meantime, there remains the slight chance for isolated dry lightning towards Yosemite National Park again today, based on the Day 1 fire weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. A slight chance for thunderstorms will continue into Saturday over the Sierra Nevada to as far south as Tulare County. Similar probabilities as yesterday are shown for today, or near 30 percent at Yosemite and lower to around 10 percent into Tulare County. The best time for storm development will be this afternoon until early this evening. Any thunderstorm is capable of producing a lightning strike that could start a new fire. Beyond late next week, the potential for near average temperatures will continue, per the Climate Prediction Center, including in the latest 6-10 day outlook. The latest 8-14 day outlook does now show a slight tilt in the odds for above average temperatures while precipitation remains near average (although normal precipitation is basically zero for most of our area due to being in the current dry season). For reference, average high temperatures across the Central Valley are in the upper 90`s through the first week of August. && .AVIATION... 6Z Update: VFR conditions are expected in the San Joaquin valley for the next 24 hours. A 5 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms will exist across the Sierra Nevada Crest from Yosemite to Tulare County 18Z Sunday through 03Z Monday && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...BSO aviation....JPK weather.gov/hanford