797 FXUS66 KMTR 141758 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 958 AM PST Tue Jan 14 2025 ...New SYNOPSIS, BEACHES... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 950 AM PST Tue Jan 14 2025 Dry weather with mostly sunny skies and light winds will persist through the week. Expect daytime highs to be around or slightly above normal with seasonably cold morning lows. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1224 AM PST Tue Jan 14 2025 The nocturnal cooling is behaving more predictably tonight with the weaker offshore winds. Scattered to broken high clouds are streaming across the cwa, which will take the edge off the cooling. Many inland areas are already in the mid to upper 30s, but many coastal areas have some light downslope winds keeping them in the mid to upper 40s. The 500 mb pattern is stabilizing as an elongated ridge over northern California and a vertically stacked, cut-off low roughly 500 miles west of Baja. This is supporting geostrophic NE winds through the depth of the atmosphere. At the surface, the gradient between a 1037 mb high over NE Nevada and a 1027 mb low near Vallejo is supporting moderate offshore winds across higher terrain, weak offshore flow at the coast, and mostly calm winds in the valleys. The wind speed will gradually decrease as this gradient relaxes through the day. Otherwise, it`s another day of comfortable afternoon temperatures and ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1224 AM PST Tue Jan 14 2025 The Baja cyclone has lost any upper-level divergence provided from the jet stream, and it will slowly begin to fill while meandering around the subtropical East Pacific. By the end of the week, this system will finally be absorbed back into the westerlies and kicked inland. There is very high certainty that the next pattern in line is another omega block with a high amplitude ridge off the coast and a deep, cold trough over the central US. What does that mean for the long term forecast? It`s pretty boring locally. Mostly clear skies, cold mornings, gentle winds, and no chance of rain. Next week looks pretty similar at this point, perhaps a bit colder. This prolonged dry spell is unusual in January. There is a good chance we end the month in the top 5 or 10 driest on record. Take this with a grain of salt, but there is some agreement between the extended global models that the dry anomaly will last until mid-February. That`s not to say we won`t get any rain, just that it looks to stay drier than normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 944 AM PST Tue Jan 14 2025 VFR is expected to persist through the TAF period with mostly light and moderate winds throughout. Vicinity of SFO...VFR with weak onshore flow this afternoon, easing after sunset and becoming offshore again on Wednesday. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with increasing drainage flow late tonight into early Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 944 AM PST Tue Jan 14 2025 Light to moderate northerly flow will persist over the coastal waters much of this week, with relatively light winds that don`t increase much until later this week and into weekend. Sea state will be low with moderate period. && .BEACHES... Issued at 950 AM PST Tue Jan 14 2025 There is a slight risk of sneaker waves as the tide goes out this afternoon, with low tide around 6 PM PST. The large tidal swings resulting in a draw down of water will help mitigate the risk somewhat but remember to never turn your back on the ocean and observe the beautiful sunset over the water from a safe distance. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Flynn LONG TERM....Flynn AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea