640
FXUS66 KMTR 111137
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
437 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 247 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025
The daily pattern of the return of marine layer clouds overnight
through the morning hours, some coastal drizzle, and breezy
afternoon onshore winds continues. Temperatures remain in the
upper 50s and into the 60s at the coast, the 70 to 80s for areas
more inland, and into the 90s for the far interior.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025
The marine stratus push isn`t as widespread as previous nights, but
the coast and favored valleys are still seeing plenty of cloud
cover. The expansion of the marine layer allowed for clouds to be
slightly less lower than previous days, and less pockets of fog.
Short term models are hinting earlier clearing than the last few
days for the North Bay Valleys and the Salinas Valley and less
coastal drizzle chances to start the day.
Some fine-tuning was done on todays temperatures, which are trending
overall cooler than yesterday, but only by a few degrees in the
interior areas, and just barely along the coast. Today is setting up
to be one of the cooler days of the forecast, with a slight short
wave trough enhancing the onshore flow.
Cloud cover will be slower to build inland this evening, with less
overall coverage than this morning, but the coastal cloud cover will
still be strong.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025
The reduced cloud cover will allow for earlier clearing for all but
the immediate coast on Thursday morning. This will also lead to
warmer temperatures for the the areas that are slightly inland, but
not some much for the interior areas that haven`t been seeing cloud
cover for the last few days.
The persistent zonal pattern aloft will keep the onshore flow going
through much of the forecast, with temperatures mostly being
affected by how much and how persistent cloud cover is each day. A
little less cloud cover for Friday, then a little more for Saturday.
But the variations in day to day temperatures still don`t look to be
terribly drastic. The difference between the immediate coast and
inland areas, however, will still be interesting to say the least
with some potions of the coast sticking to the upper 50s and the
interior areas peaking in the 90s.
The flow does change slightly in the late weekend and into the next
work week as a trough enters the area. The reduction in pressure
from the trough will cause the marine layer to deepen, and lead to
more moisture movement inland. It will also allow some cooling for
the more interior areas, but only slight cooling.
The big question is the speed at which the trough exits and what
happens after. Long-term model agreement seems to be falling apart
into the next work week as some models point to the trough exiting
Monday and going back to zonal flow, while others keep the trough
around for a few days. Some even snap quickly to a ridge pattern,
calling for another warming and drying trend in the mid week. This
will be something to keep an eye on as models continue to try to
figure this on out, be sure to keep checking back in!
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 435 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025
Currently a mixed bag of IFR-MVFR at the terminals. Widespread VFR
is expected at all terminals (with the exception of HAF) by this
afternoon with stratus sticking to the coast. While the pattern
will generally be the same throughout the TAF period, a relatively
weaker onshore pressure gradient and diffuse marine layer will
result in less stratus coverage tonight with highest confidence
in coastal/bayshore terminals. Onshore winds will prevail through
the TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with westerly flow. Ceilings are
expected to dip to IFR over the next few hours with a gradual return
to MVFR and ultimately VFR by this afternoon. Moderate westerly
winds will prevail through the TAF period.
SFO Bridge Approach...Conditions will improve from south to north
along the San Mateo Bridge Approach with high confidence in VFR by
the afternoon. Low clouds will return by 02Z.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR with westerly flow at both
terminals. Short-lived VFR is expected by the afternoon with stratus
sticking close to the coast and having an early return this evening.
Westerly winds will prevail through the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025
Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes will prevail through the
week with gale force gusts developing in the afternoons along the
coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur. Moderate to
rough seas will prevail through the week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for SF Bay N of Bay
Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this
evening for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday
for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Friday
for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment
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