898
FXUS66 KSGX 022025
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
125 PM PDT Mon Jun 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

An area of low pressure will cross over the area Tuesday into
Wednesday, giving a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the
area. The best chance for these will be across the mountains, but
some storms could make their way into the western valleys and
coastal areas by Tuesday night. After the system departs, drier
and warmer weather will occur across our area as weak high
pressure moves into SoCal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A 575 mb low west of Point Conception will continue to push
southeast across the California Bight through tonight. As the
system moves closer to our region by Tuesday and Wednesday, the
chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase, notably
across the mountains.

Southeasterly and easterly flow aloft accompanied by adequate
subtropical moisture and instability will move over the area as
this system comes into the area. NBM thunder probabilities go up
to 20-30 percent across parts of the Inland Empire, northern
mountains and deserts. These storms could arrive by Tuesday
afternoon but more likely by the evening hours and overnight. As
the moisture wraps around the low, cloud to ground lightning,
heavy rain and small hail are possible as these form over the
mts/deserts in the evening and push westward into the valleys.
Confidence lowers with the forecast for storms at the immediate
coast, with the best chance to see these sometime Tuesday night.
Some areas will receive nothing, others could receive near one
half inch or locally more. As the low pushes further inland into
the desert, the backside of it may leave some light showers over
the area on Wednesday morning. With instability and moisture still
readily available, hi-res models continue to show the potential
for more storms to fire mainly in the mountains and high desert by
Wednesday afternoon. These storms may produce higher hourly rates
than Tuesday, but confidence on this is low. High temperatures
will remain relatively unchanged through this period with
lingering humidity.

As the system departs by Thursday, drying will occur across the
region (hello, less humidity!) with a subtle warming trend
beginning. The marine layer will rebuild itself as well, with
night and morning low clouds near the coast. Model ensemble
guidance is in fair agreement of a weak trough remaining over the
area keeping temperatures from getting too warm, with a high
pressure system slowly building into the area thereafter. This
system will bring in more warmer weather by the weekend into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
021545Z....Coasts/Valleys...Low clouds based at around 800-1000ft
MSL with tops to 1400ft are slowly moving offshore, with clearing at
most coastal sites by 17z with some patchiness lingering along
immediate coast thereafter. A fairly uniform marine layer pushes
ashore after 02Z Tuesday, spreading into the Inland Empire and
inland valleys by 07Z. Bases will be closer to 1500 feet MSL, with
VIS reduced inland. Clearing looks to occur at quickly after 16Z,
but may linger along the coast beyond 18z.

.Mountains/Deserts...VFR prevails and mostly clear skies. Cu based
at 9,000ft MSL over mountains and locally over deserts 18-02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected today through Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...
A long period south swell will bring elevated surf up to 6 to 7 feet
primarily for south and southwest facing beaches through Tuesday
resulting in a higher rip current risk and locally hazardous
swimming conditions. A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect and
contains more information.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday afternoon for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...Zuber